2021 03 02 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana vs Virtus Bologna at 02 March 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Unicaja Malaga at 02 March 2021
Monaco vs Nanterre at 02 March 2021
Unics vs Andorra at 03 March 2021
Aquila Basket Trento vs Partizan at 03 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana vs Virtus Bologna at 02 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and Virtus Bologna for EuroCup, which will take place on 02 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

2.9

2.47

Virtus Bologna

1.41

1.68

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana HC

+5.5

3.50

Virtus Bologna HC

-5.5

-3.50

Point Line

169.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 3

A

JL Bourg

W

77

64

10

4

W 3

77

64

Jan 27

H

JL Bourg

W

94

91

9

4

W 2

94

91

Jan 19

H

Buducnost VOLI

W

74

71

8

4

W 1

74

71

Jan 13

A

Virtus Bologna

L

76

90

7

4

L 1

81

81

Dec 16

A

Promitheas

W

105

69

7

3

W 3

96

73

Dec 10

H

Promitheas

W

77

73

6

3

W 2

70

77

Dec 8

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

87

65

5

3

W 1

94

69

Nov 18

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

82

90

4

3

L 1

82

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 3

A

Buducnost VOLI

W

99

89

14

0

W 13

99

89

Jan 26

H

Buducnost VOLI

W

87

65

13

0

W 12

87

65

Jan 20

A

JL Bourg

W

99

87

12

0

W 11

99

87

Jan 13

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

90

76

11

0

W 10

97

73

Dec 22

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

92

81

10

0

W 9

98

88

Dec 16

H

Antwerp Giants

W

92

73

9

0

W 8

85

79

Dec 9

A

Monaco

W

74

68

8

0

W 7

82

67

Nov 20

H

Lietkabelis

W

82

73

7

0

W 6

80

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana (in the first graph) and by Virtus Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana will expected to score 79 points and the Virtus Bologna 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

Virtus Bologna

FG%

0.54

0.61

ASS

15.20

24.20

DRB

24.30

23.80

AST-TO

1.49

1.56

TRB

34.40

30.90

FTM

11.40

14.70

BL

1.70

3.40

FTA

16.30

19.40

PF-Fewer

17.50

22.90

ST

6.90

8.90

TO-Fewer

10.20

15.50

Ftper

0.70

0.76

ORBper

0.42

0.30

ORB

10.10

7.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Joventut Badalona vs Unicaja Malaga at 02 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Unicaja Malaga for EuroCup, which will take place on 02 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

1.34

1.36

Unicaja Malaga

3.3

3.74

Joventut Badalona HC

-6.5

-6.50

Unicaja Malaga HC

+6.5

6.50

Point Line

170.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 2

A

Monaco

L

82

97

11

3

L 1

90

95

Jan 26

H

Monaco

W

79

72

11

2

W 6

87

71

Jan 20

H

Nanterre 92

W

95

90

10

2

W 5

91

87

Jan 13

A

Unicaja

W

95

86

9

2

W 4

92

81

Dec 30

H

JL Bourg

W

90

75

8

2

W 3

90

75

Dec 15

H

UNICS

W

84

77

7

2

W 2

89

75

Dec 8

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

89

75

6

2

W 1

81

79

Nov 19

A

Partizan NIS

L

75

78

5

2

L 2

81

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 3

A

Nanterre 92

L

74

80

7

7

L 5

71

77

Jan 27

H

Nanterre 92

L

83

92

7

6

L 4

79

89

Jan 19

A

Monaco

L

71

90

7

5

L 3

78

89

Jan 13

H

Joventut

L

86

95

7

4

L 2

86

87

Dec 16

H

ratiopharm Ulm

L

90

94

7

3

L 1

93

95

Dec 9

A

Germani Brescia

W

83

79

7

2

W 3

80

83

Nov 18

A

Buducnost VOLI

W

90

66

6

2

W 2

90

66

Nov 11

H

Mornar

W

98

72

5

2

W 1

96

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Unicaja Malaga in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 85 points and the Unicaja Malaga 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Unicaja Malaga

FG%

0.58

0.57

ASS

20.60

18.10

DRB

22.70

20.40

AST-TO

1.57

1.47

TRB

31.70

29.00

FTM

16.10

12.90

BL

1.90

2.00

FTA

20.40

16.40

PF-Fewer

20.60

21.50

ST

4.80

5.60

TO-Fewer

13.10

12.30

Ftper

0.79

0.79

ORBper

0.40

0.42

ORB

9.00

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Monaco vs Nanterre at 02 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Nanterre for EuroCup, which will take place on 02 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Monaco

1.22

1.48

Nanterre

4.35

3.09

Monaco HC

-8.5

-5.50

Nanterre HC

+8.5

5.50

Point Line

156.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 2

H

Joventut

W

97

82

9

5

W 1

97

75

Jan 26

A

Joventut

L

72

79

8

5

L 1

72

73

Jan 19

H

Unicaja

W

90

71

8

4

W 4

88

67

Jan 13

A

Nanterre 92

W

93

65

7

4

W 3

89

63

Dec 29

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

66

64

6

4

W 2

70

69

Dec 18

A

Lietkabelis

W

88

64

5

4

W 1

86

70

Dec 16

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

72

76

4

4

L 2

72

70

Dec 9

H

Virtus Bologna

L

68

74

4

3

L 1

72

66

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nanterre are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 3

H

Unicaja

W

80

74

6

8

W 2

78

70

Jan 27

A

Unicaja

W

92

83

5

8

W 1

89

78

Jan 20

A

Joventut

L

90

95

4

8

L 4

90

87

Jan 13

H

Monaco

L

65

93

4

7

L 3

72

92

Dec 23

A

Bursaspor

L

92

102

4

6

L 2

80

94

Dec 22

H

Bursaspor

L

90

91

4

5

L 1

78

84

Dec 8

H

Promitheas

W

91

70

4

4

W 3

83

74

Nov 18

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

104

102

3

4

W 2

112

108

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nanterre.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nanterre and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Monaco (in the first graph) and by Nanterre in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Monaco will expected to score 82 points and the Nanterre 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Monaco

Nanterre

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

15.40

15.50

DRB

20.90

22.50

AST-TO

1.48

1.30

TRB

32.30

31.40

FTM

14.40

13.20

BL

2.50

2.30

FTA

20.50

19.10

PF-Fewer

20.90

19.10

ST

7.60

6.80

TO-Fewer

10.40

11.90

Ftper

0.70

0.69

ORBper

0.55

0.40

ORB

11.40

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Unics vs Andorra at 03 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unics and Andorra for EuroCup, which will take place on 03 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unics

1.36

1.99

Andorra

3.2

2.01

Unics HC

-6.5

-1.00

Andorra HC

+6.5

1.00

Point Line

154.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 3

H

Mornar

W

86

61

10

4

W 4

84

62

Jan 27

A

Mornar

W

87

70

9

4

W 3

85

71

Jan 20

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

73

62

8

4

W 2

73

62

Jan 13

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

73

66

7

4

W 1

78

72

Dec 15

A

Joventut

L

77

84

6

4

L 1

77

77

Dec 9

H

JL Bourg

W

76

71

6

3

W 2

76

71

Nov 19

A

JL Bourg

W

86

74

5

3

W 1

86

74

Nov 17

A

Partizan NIS

L

86

89

4

3

L 1

93

92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 3

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

74

79

5

9

L 1

74

79

Jan 27

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

66

63

5

8

W 2

66

63

Jan 20

A

Mornar

W

74

71

4

8

W 1

72

72

Jan 13

H

UNICS

L

66

73

3

8

L 5

70

71

Dec 29

A

Monaco

L

64

66

3

7

L 4

70

65

Dec 22

A

Virtus Bologna

L

81

92

3

6

L 3

86

82

Dec 16

A

Lietkabelis

L

69

77

3

5

L 2

67

85

Dec 9

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

100

106

3

4

L 1

101

97

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unics (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unics will expected to score 79 points and the Andorra 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unics

Andorra

FG%

0.55

0.47

ASS

17.80

14.90

DRB

22.50

21.80

AST-TO

1.58

1.12

TRB

32.40

32.40

FTM

11.50

13.80

BL

1.50

2.90

FTA

14.40

17.90

PF-Fewer

21.20

20.10

ST

7.10

7.40

TO-Fewer

11.30

13.30

Ftper

0.80

0.77

ORBper

0.44

0.49

ORB

9.90

10.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Aquila Basket Trento vs Partizan at 03 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aquila Basket Trento and Partizan for EuroCup, which will take place on 03 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aquila Basket Trento

1.63

1.29

Partizan

2.3

4.46

Aquila Basket Trento HC

-3.5

-7.50

Partizan HC

+3.5

7.50

Point Line

154.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 2

H

Metropolitans 92

W

67

57

8

6

W 1

67

57

Jan 26

A

Metropolitans 92

L

86

92

7

6

L 1

86

92

Jan 20

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

96

84

7

5

W 1

97

77

Jan 13

A

Partizan NIS

L

43

71

6

5

L 5