2021 03 02 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reading vs Blackburn at 02 March 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Luton at 02 March 2021
Millwall vs Preston at 02 March 2021
Huddersfield vs Birmingham at 02 March 2021
Coventry vs Middlesbrough at 02 March 2021
Cardiff vs Derby at 02 March 2021
Norwich vs Brentford at 03 March 2021
Watford vs Wycombe at 03 March 2021
Stoke vs Swansea at 03 March 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Rotherham at 03 March 2021
Bristol City vs Bournemouth at 03 March 2021
QPR vs Barnsley at 03 March 2021


Reading vs Blackburn at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reading and Blackburn for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reading

2.36

2.43

-1.2

Draw

3.33

3.70

-3.0

Blackburn

3.07

3.14

-0.7

Over 2.5

2.08

2.09

-0.2

Under 2.5

1.77

1.92

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reading in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance at home.
Reading, at home, had 9 wins, no draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 56.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Middlesbrough

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Bristol City

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Millwall

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Feb

Brentford

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Stoke

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Jan

Bournemouth

H

3

1

W

O

G


Blackburn in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance as a guest.
Blackburn, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Coventry

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Feb

Watford

H

2

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Nott’m Forest

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Feb

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Feb

Preston

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

QPR

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Luton

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Middlesbrough

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Reading is -0.401 and for the Blackburn is -0.8.
The home dynamic for the Reading is 0.169 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackburn is 0.
The offensive ability for the Reading is 0.167 and for the Blackburn is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reading is -0.167 and for the Blackburn is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reading and the red line for guest team, Blackburn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reading

25%

33%

26%

16%

Blackburn

31%

34%

23%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reading to score 1.3 goals and Blackburn to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reading to score 1.32 goals and Blackburn to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.72

1

5.26

2-3

2.02

2

3.97

4+

4.24

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.72

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.59

3.41

3.13

2-3 goals

2.28

4.34

3.02

4+ goals

2.59

3.06

3.47

Ov 1.5

2.37

3.83

3.15

Un 1.5

2.59

3.41

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.10

6.22

2.75

Un 2.5

2.83

2.70

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.59

3.06

3.47

Un 3.5

2.38

3.96

3.06

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.69

3.54

No Goal

2.08

6.15

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.19

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

6.15

2.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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<a id=‘Nott’m Forest’>

Nott’m Forest vs Luton at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nott’m Forest and Luton for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nott’m Forest

2.02

1.92

2.6

Draw

3.34

3.85

-4.0

Luton

3.97

4.57

-3.3

Over 2.5

2.42

2.16

5.0

Under 2.5

1.60

1.86

-8.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nott’m Forest, Over 2.5 (2.6 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nott’m Forest in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nott’m Forest in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance at home.
Nott’m Forest, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Feb

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Bournemouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Wycombe

A

3

0

W

O

N

02 Feb

Coventry

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Barnsley

H

0

0

D

U

N


Luton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance as a guest.
Luton, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Feb

Millwall

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Stoke

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Feb

Cardiff

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Huddersfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Blackburn

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Jan

Brentford

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Nott’m Forest is 0.271 and for the Luton is 0.015.
The home dynamic for the Nott’m Forest is -0.338 and the dynamic as a guest for the Luton is -0.189.
The offensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is 0.288 and for the Luton is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is 0.485 and for the Luton is -0.641.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nott’m Forest and the red line for guest team, Luton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nott’m Forest

22%

32%

22%

24%

Luton

40%

38%

11%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.33 goals and Luton to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Nott’m Forest to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.49 goals and Luton to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Nott’m Forest to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.33

1

4.69

2-3

2.09

2

4.20

4+

4.50

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.33

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.45

3.61

2-3 goals

1.74

3.89

5.90

4+ goals

1.87

4.53

4.11

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.07

5.19

Un 1.5

2.31

3.45

3.61

Ov 2.5

1.53

9.43

4.16

Un 2.5

2.43

2.56

5.03

Ov 3.5

1.87

4.53

4.11

Un 3.5

1.93

3.70

4.74

Goal-Goal

2.28

2.72

5.19

No Goal

1.68

6.13

4.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

7.02

3.82

NG+Un 2.5

1.88

6.13

3.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Millwall vs Preston at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Millwall and Preston for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Millwall

2.26

2.16

2.0

Draw

3.14

3.60

-4.1

Preston

3.42

3.86

-3.3

Over 2.5

2.40

2.21

3.6

Under 2.5

1.58

1.82

-8.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Millwall, Over 2.5 (2 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Millwall in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Millwall in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance at home.
Millwall, at home, had 3 wins, 10 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Wycombe

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Feb

Birmingham

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Reading

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

4

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Norwich

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Cardiff

A

1

1

D

U

G


Preston in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance as a guest.
Preston, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 52.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Huddersfield

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Feb

QPR

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Cardiff

A

0

4

L

O

N

16 Feb

Watford

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Feb

Blackburn

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Rotherham

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Millwall is 0.174 and for the Preston is -0.126.
The home dynamic for the Millwall is -0.273 and the dynamic as a guest for the Preston is 0.297.
The offensive ability for the Millwall is 0.597 and for the Preston is -0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Millwall is -0.227 and for the Preston is -0.076.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Millwall and the red line for guest team, Preston.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Millwall

22%

36%

22%

19%

Preston

34%

42%

14%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Millwall to score 1.23 goals and Preston to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Millwall to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Millwall to score 1.39 goals and Preston to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Millwall to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.44

1

4.65

2-3

2.04

2

3.88

4+

4.55

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.44

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.83

3.16

2-3 goals

2.11

3.25

4.58

4+ goals

2.02

4.23

3.73

Ov 1.5

2.08

3.50

4.28

Un 1.5

2.37

3.83

3.16

Ov 2.5

1.70

8.69

3.37

Un 2.5

2.77

2.42

4.43

Ov 3.5

2.02

4.23

3.73

Un 3.5

2.20

3.44

3.92

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.53

4.63

No Goal

1.84

6.41

3.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.82

6.98

3.27

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

6.41

3.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Huddersfield vs Birmingham at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Huddersfield and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huddersfield

2.48

2.16

6.0

Draw

3.11

3.73

-5.3

Birmingham

3.06

3.73

-5.9

Over 2.5

2.42

2.13

5.6

Under 2.5

1.58

1.89

-10.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (6 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance at home.
Huddersfield, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Preston

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Feb

Derby

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Swansea

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Feb

Middlesbrough

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Wycombe

H

2

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Stoke

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Bristol City

A

1

2

L

O

G


Birmingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

QPR

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Norwich

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Sheffield Weds

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Millwall

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Bournemouth

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Wycombe

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Coventry

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Huddersfield is -0.66 and for the Birmingham is -0.259.
The home dynamic for the Huddersfield is 0.195 and the dynamic as a guest for the Birmingham is 0.135.
The offensive ability for the Huddersfield is 0.116 and for the Birmingham is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Huddersfield is -1 and for the Birmingham is -0.578.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huddersfield and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huddersfield

23%

34%

23%

20%

Birmingham

34%

38%

17%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.15 goals and Birmingham to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.4 goals and Birmingham to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Huddersfield to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.53

1

4.90

2-3

2.06

2

4.05

4+

4.35

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.53

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-