Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Reading vs Blackburn at 02 March 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Luton at 02 March 2021
Millwall vs Preston at 02 March 2021
Huddersfield vs Birmingham at 02 March 2021
Coventry vs Middlesbrough at 02 March 2021
Cardiff vs Derby at 02 March 2021
Norwich vs Brentford at 03 March 2021
Watford vs Wycombe at 03 March 2021
Stoke vs Swansea at 03 March 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Rotherham at 03 March 2021
Bristol City vs Bournemouth at 03 March 2021
QPR vs Barnsley at 03 March 2021
Reading vs Blackburn at 02 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Reading and Blackburn for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Reading |
2.36 |
2.43 |
-1.2 |
|
Draw |
3.33 |
3.70 |
-3.0 |
|
Blackburn |
3.07 |
3.14 |
-0.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.09 |
-0.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.92 |
-4.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Reading in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance at home.
Reading, at home, had 9 wins, no draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 56.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Feb |
Bristol City |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Feb |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Blackburn in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance as a guest.
Blackburn, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Feb |
Watford |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Feb |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Feb |
Preston |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
QPR |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Luton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Reading is -0.401 and for the Blackburn is -0.8.
The home dynamic for the Reading is 0.169 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackburn is 0.
The offensive ability for the Reading is 0.167 and for the Blackburn is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reading is -0.167 and for the Blackburn is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reading and the red line for guest team, Blackburn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Reading |
25% |
33% |
26% |
16% |
|
Blackburn |
31% |
34% |
23% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reading to score 1.3 goals and Blackburn to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reading to score 1.32 goals and Blackburn to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.72 |
|
1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.24 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |
|
5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.59 |
3.41 |
3.13 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.28 |
4.34 |
3.02 |
|
4+ goals |
2.59 |
3.06 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.83 |
3.15 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.41 |
3.13 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.22 |
2.75 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.70 |
3.62 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.06 |
3.47 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.96 |
3.06 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.69 |
3.54 |
|
No Goal |
2.08 |
6.15 |
2.81 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.19 |
2.76 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.15 |
2.83 |
Go to Top
<a id=‘Nott’m Forest’>
Nott’m Forest vs Luton at 02 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Nott’m Forest and Luton for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Nott’m Forest |
2.02 |
1.92 |
2.6 |
|
Draw |
3.34 |
3.85 |
-4.0 |
|
Luton |
3.97 |
4.57 |
-3.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.16 |
5.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.86 |
-8.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Nott’m Forest, Over 2.5 (2.6 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Nott’m Forest in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nott’m Forest in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance at home.
Nott’m Forest, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Feb |
Derby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Feb |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Luton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance as a guest.
Luton, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Blackburn |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Nott’m Forest is 0.271 and for the Luton is 0.015.
The home dynamic for the Nott’m Forest is -0.338 and the dynamic as a guest for the Luton is -0.189.
The offensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is 0.288 and for the Luton is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is 0.485 and for the Luton is -0.641.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nott’m Forest and the red line for guest team, Luton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Nott’m Forest |
22% |
32% |
22% |
24% |
|
Luton |
40% |
38% |
11% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.33 goals and Luton to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Nott’m Forest to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.49 goals and Luton to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Nott’m Forest to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.33 |
|
1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.09 |
|
2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
4.50 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.33 |
|
5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
2.14 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |
|
NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.45 |
3.61 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.74 |
3.89 |
5.90 |
|
4+ goals |
1.87 |
4.53 |
4.11 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.78 |
4.07 |
5.19 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.45 |
3.61 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
9.43 |
4.16 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.56 |
5.03 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.87 |
4.53 |
4.11 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.70 |
4.74 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.28 |
2.72 |
5.19 |
|
No Goal |
1.68 |
6.13 |
4.16 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.02 |
3.82 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.13 |
3.88 |
Go to Top
Millwall vs Preston at 02 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Millwall and Preston for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Millwall |
2.26 |
2.16 |
2.0 |
|
Draw |
3.14 |
3.60 |
-4.1 |
|
Preston |
3.42 |
3.86 |
-3.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.21 |
3.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.82 |
-8.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Millwall, Over 2.5 (2 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Millwall in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Millwall in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance at home.
Millwall, at home, had 3 wins, 10 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Millwall was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Wycombe |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Feb |
Birmingham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Reading |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Norwich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Preston in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance as a guest.
Preston, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 52.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
24 Feb |
QPR |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Feb |
Watford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Feb |
Blackburn |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Rotherham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The form score for the Millwall is 0.174 and for the Preston is -0.126.
The home dynamic for the Millwall is -0.273 and the dynamic as a guest for the Preston is 0.297.
The offensive ability for the Millwall is 0.597 and for the Preston is -0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Millwall is -0.227 and for the Preston is -0.076.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Millwall and the red line for guest team, Preston.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Millwall |
22% |
36% |
22% |
19% |
|
Preston |
34% |
42% |
14% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Millwall to score 1.23 goals and Preston to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Millwall to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Millwall to score 1.39 goals and Preston to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Millwall to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.44 |
|
1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.55 |
|
3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.44 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |
|
NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.37 |
3.83 |
3.16 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.11 |
3.25 |
4.58 |
|
4+ goals |
2.02 |
4.23 |
3.73 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.08 |
3.50 |
4.28 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.83 |
3.16 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
8.69 |
3.37 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
2.42 |
4.43 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
4.23 |
3.73 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.44 |
3.92 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.53 |
4.63 |
|
No Goal |
1.84 |
6.41 |
3.31 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.98 |
3.27 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.41 |
3.21 |
Go to Top
Huddersfield vs Birmingham at 02 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Huddersfield and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Huddersfield |
2.48 |
2.16 |
6.0 |
|
Draw |
3.11 |
3.73 |
-5.3 |
|
Birmingham |
3.06 |
3.73 |
-5.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.13 |
5.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.89 |
-10.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (6 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance at home.
Huddersfield, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Preston |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
23 Feb |
Derby |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Swansea |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Stoke |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Birmingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
QPR |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Feb |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Bournemouth |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The form score for the Huddersfield is -0.66 and for the Birmingham is -0.259.
The home dynamic for the Huddersfield is 0.195 and the dynamic as a guest for the Birmingham is 0.135.
The offensive ability for the Huddersfield is 0.116 and for the Birmingham is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Huddersfield is -1 and for the Birmingham is -0.578.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huddersfield and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Huddersfield |
23% |
34% |
23% |
20% |
|
Birmingham |
34% |
38% |
17% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.15 goals and Birmingham to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.4 goals and Birmingham to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Huddersfield to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.53 |
|
1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.35 |
|
3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.53 |
|
5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
|
Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |