# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Reading vs Blackburn at 02 March 2021**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Luton at 02 March 2021**** Millwall vs Preston at 02 March 2021**** Huddersfield vs Birmingham at 02 March 2021**** Coventry vs Middlesbrough at 02 March 2021**** Cardiff vs Derby at 02 March 2021**** Norwich vs Brentford at 03 March 2021**** Watford vs Wycombe at 03 March 2021**** Stoke vs Swansea at 03 March 2021**** Sheffield Weds vs Rotherham at 03 March 2021**** Bristol City vs Bournemouth at 03 March 2021**** QPR vs Barnsley at 03 March 2021**

###
Reading vs Blackburn at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reading** and **Blackburn** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reading |
2.36 |
2.43 |
-1.2 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.70 |
-3.0 |

Blackburn |
3.07 |
3.14 |
-0.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.09 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.92 |
-4.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** at home**.

Reading,** at home**, had 9 wins, no draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 56.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Bristol City |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Feb |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Blackburn** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackburn** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance** as a guest**.

Blackburn,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Feb |
Watford |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Feb |
Preston |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
QPR |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Luton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Reading** is **-0.401** and for the **Blackburn** is **-0.8.**

The home dynamic for the **Reading** is **0.169** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Blackburn** is **0.**

The offensive ability for the **Reading** is **0.167** and for the **Blackburn** is **0.278.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Reading** is **-0.167** and for the **Blackburn** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reading** and the red line for guest team, **Blackburn. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reading |
25% |
33% |
26% |
16% |

Blackburn |
31% |
34% |
23% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Blackburn** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Blackburn** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.59 |
3.41 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
2.28 |
4.34 |
3.02 |

4+ goals |
2.59 |
3.06 |
3.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.83 |
3.15 |

Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.41 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.22 |
2.75 |

Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.70 |
3.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.06 |
3.47 |

Un 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.96 |
3.06 |

Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.69 |
3.54 |

No Goal |
2.08 |
6.15 |
2.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.19 |
2.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.15 |
2.83 |

####
Go to Top

<a id=‘Nott’m Forest’>

###
Nott’m Forest vs Luton at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nott’m Forest** and **Luton** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nott’m Forest |
2.02 |
1.92 |
2.6 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.85 |
-4.0 |

Luton |
3.97 |
4.57 |
-3.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.16 |
5.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.86 |
-8.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nott’m Forest, Over 2.5 (2.6 %, 5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nott’m Forest** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nott’m Forest** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance** at home**.

Nott’m Forest,** at home**, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Feb |
Derby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Luton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Luton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance** as a guest**.

Luton,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Blackburn |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Nott’m Forest** is **0.271** and for the **Luton** is **0.015.**

The home dynamic for the **Nott’m Forest** is **-0.338** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Luton** is **-0.189.**

The offensive ability for the **Nott’m Forest** is **0.288** and for the **Luton** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Nott’m Forest** is **0.485** and for the **Luton** is **-0.641.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nott’m Forest** and the red line for guest team, **Luton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nott’m Forest |
22% |
32% |
22% |
24% |

Luton |
40% |
38% |
11% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nott’m Forest** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Luton** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and the home team **Nott’m Forest ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nott’m Forest** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Luton** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Nott’m Forest ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.33 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.33 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.14 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.45 |
3.61 |

2-3 goals |
1.74 |
3.89 |
5.90 |

4+ goals |
1.87 |
4.53 |
4.11 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.78 |
4.07 |
5.19 |

Un 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.45 |
3.61 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
9.43 |
4.16 |

Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.56 |
5.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.87 |
4.53 |
4.11 |

Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.70 |
4.74 |

Goal-Goal |
2.28 |
2.72 |
5.19 |

No Goal |
1.68 |
6.13 |
4.16 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.02 |
3.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.13 |
3.88 |

####
Go to Top

###
Millwall vs Preston at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Millwall** and **Preston** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Millwall |
2.26 |
2.16 |
2.0 |

Draw |
3.14 |
3.60 |
-4.1 |

Preston |
3.42 |
3.86 |
-3.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.21 |
3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.82 |
-8.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Millwall, Over 2.5 (2 %, 3.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Millwall** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Millwall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance** at home**.

Millwall,** at home**, had 3 wins, 10 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Wycombe |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Birmingham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Reading |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Norwich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Preston** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Preston** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance** as a guest**.

Preston,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 52.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Feb |
QPR |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Watford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Feb |
Blackburn |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Rotherham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Millwall** is **0.174** and for the **Preston** is **-0.126.**

The home dynamic for the **Millwall** is **-0.273** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Preston** is **0.297.**

The offensive ability for the **Millwall** is **0.597** and for the **Preston** is **-0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Millwall** is **-0.227** and for the **Preston** is **-0.076.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Millwall** and the red line for guest team, **Preston. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Millwall |
22% |
36% |
22% |
19% |

Preston |
34% |
42% |
14% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Millwall** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Preston** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and the home team **Millwall ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Millwall** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Preston** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Millwall ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.44 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.44 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.37 |
3.83 |
3.16 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
3.25 |
4.58 |

4+ goals |
2.02 |
4.23 |
3.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.08 |
3.50 |
4.28 |

Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.83 |
3.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
8.69 |
3.37 |

Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
2.42 |
4.43 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
4.23 |
3.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.44 |
3.92 |

Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.53 |
4.63 |

No Goal |
1.84 |
6.41 |
3.31 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.98 |
3.27 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.41 |
3.21 |

####
Go to Top

###
Huddersfield vs Birmingham at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Huddersfield** and **Birmingham** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Huddersfield |
2.48 |
2.16 |
6.0 |

Draw |
3.11 |
3.73 |
-5.3 |

Birmingham |
3.06 |
3.73 |
-5.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.13 |
5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.89 |
-10.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (6 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** at home**.

Huddersfield,** at home**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Preston |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Feb |
Derby |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Swansea |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Stoke |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Birmingham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Birmingham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance** as a guest**.

Birmingham,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
QPR |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Bournemouth |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.66** and for the **Birmingham** is **-0.259.**

The home dynamic for the **Huddersfield** is **0.195** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Birmingham** is **0.135.**

The offensive ability for the **Huddersfield** is **0.116** and for the **Birmingham** is **0.278.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Huddersfield** is **-1** and for the **Birmingham** is **-0.578.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Huddersfield** and the red line for guest team, **Birmingham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Huddersfield |
23% |
34% |
23% |
20% |

Birmingham |
34% |
38% |
17% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Huddersfield** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Birmingham** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Huddersfield** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Birmingham** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Huddersfield ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.53 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.53 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |