2021 03 02 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Altrincham vs Woking at 02 March 2021
Barnet vs Yeovil at 02 March 2021
Chesterfield vs Eastleigh at 02 March 2021
Halifax vs Hartlepool at 02 March 2021
Notts County vs King’s Lynn at 02 March 2021
Solihull vs Dag and Red at 02 March 2021
Sutton vs Bromley at 02 March 2021
Wealdstone vs Boreham Wood at 02 March 2021


Altrincham vs Woking at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Altrincham and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Altrincham

2.69

2.40

4.5

Draw

3.32

3.73

-3.3

Woking

2.46

3.16

-9.0

Over 2.5

1.95

2.00

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.85

2.00

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Altrincham (4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Altrincham in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance at home.
Altrincham, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Bromley

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Feb

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Boreham Wood

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Yeovil

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Wrexham

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

Torquay

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Wealdstone

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Barnet

A

2

1

W

O

G


Woking in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Wrexham

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Stockport

H

1

4

L

O

G

26 Jan

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Aldershot

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Dec

Eastleigh

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Aldershot

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Altrincham is -0.887 and for the Woking is -0.296.
The home dynamic for the Altrincham is -0.26 and the dynamic as a guest for the Woking is -0.649.
The offensive ability for the Altrincham is 0.202 and for the Woking is -0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Altrincham is -1 and for the Woking is -0.166.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Altrincham and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Altrincham

23%

35%

24%

18%

Woking

30%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.2 goals and Woking to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.37 goals and Woking to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.95

1

5.43

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

3.94

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.95

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.67

3.09

2-3 goals

2.35

4.02

3.07

4+ goals

2.47

3.30

3.43

Ov 1.5

2.39

3.74

3.18

Un 1.5

2.48

3.67

3.09

Ov 2.5

2.07

6.49

2.75

Un 2.5

2.88

2.61

3.72

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.30

3.43

Un 3.5

2.39

3.90

3.07

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.71

3.55

No Goal

2.03

6.65

2.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.22

5.42

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

6.65

2.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barnet vs Yeovil at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barnet and Yeovil for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barnet

3.82

3.11

6.0

Draw

3.53

3.65

-0.9

Yeovil

1.86

2.48

-13.4

Over 2.5

1.77

2.01

-6.7

Under 2.5

2.02

1.99

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barnet, Under 2.5 (6 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barnet in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance at home.
Barnet, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Feb

Woking

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Halifax

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Aldershot

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Torquay

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

Dover Athletic

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Altrincham

H

1

2

L

O

G


Yeovil in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance as a guest.
Yeovil, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Dag and Red

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Weymouth

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Hartlepool

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Altrincham

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Stockport

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Dover Athletic

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Barnet is -0.838 and for the Yeovil is 0.385.
The home dynamic for the Barnet is -0.987 and the dynamic as a guest for the Yeovil is -0.054.
The offensive ability for the Barnet is -0.176 and for the Yeovil is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Barnet is -1 and for the Yeovil is -0.166.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnet and the red line for guest team, Yeovil.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barnet

25%

42%

21%

12%

Yeovil

24%

34%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnet to score 1 goals and Yeovil to score 1.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the guest team Yeovil to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.19 goals and Yeovil to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

4.03

1

5.38

2-3

2.00

2

3.95

4+

3.98

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.03

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.77

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.30

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

4.00

2.92

2-3 goals

3.31

3.60

2.38

4+ goals

3.59

3.44

2.32

Ov 1.5

3.40

3.54

2.36

Un 1.5

2.46

4.00

2.92

Ov 2.5

2.93

6.82

1.95

Un 2.5

3.30

2.49

3.39

Ov 3.5

3.59

3.44

2.32

Un 3.5

2.97

3.72

2.54

Goal-Goal

4.00

2.66

2.67

No Goal

2.40

7.02

2.27

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.01

5.82

2.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

7.02

2.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Chesterfield vs Eastleigh at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chesterfield and Eastleigh for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chesterfield

1.91

2.10

-4.7

Draw

3.29

3.92

-4.9

Eastleigh

3.99

3.73

1.7

Over 2.5

1.86

1.98

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.92

2.02

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chesterfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance at home.
Chesterfield, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Stockport

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Altrincham

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Dag and Red

A

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Wrexham

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Jan

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Solihull

H

1

0

W

U

N


Eastleigh in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance as a guest.
Eastleigh, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Wealdstone

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Hartlepool

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Yeovil

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Solihull

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Feb

Wrexham

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Boreham Wood

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Dag and Red

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Chesterfield is 0.231 and for the Eastleigh is 0.519.
The home dynamic for the Chesterfield is 0.052 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eastleigh is -0.122.
The offensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.202 and for the Eastleigh is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.176 and for the Eastleigh is 0.318.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chesterfield and the red line for guest team, Eastleigh.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chesterfield

24%

28%

26%

23%

Eastleigh

34%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.61 goals and Eastleigh to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.47 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.86

1

5.59

2-3

2.07

2

4.27

4+

3.89

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.86

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.82

3.24

2.98

2-3 goals

1.90

4.84

3.75

4+ goals

1.98

3.43

4.94

Ov 1.5

1.92

4.23

4.09

Un 1.5

2.82

3.24

2.98

Ov 2.5

1.69

6.76

3.84

Un 2.5

2.79

2.74

3.62

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.43

4.94

Un 3.5

2.14

4.13

3.44

Goal-Goal

2.27

2.89

4.69

No Goal

1.94

6.18

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.82

5.41

3.76

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

6.18

2.89


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Halifax vs Hartlepool at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Halifax

2.73

2.37

5.6

Draw

3.07

3.76

-6.0

Hartlepool

2.56

3.21

-7.9

Over 2.5

1.87

2.00

-3.5

Under 2.5

1.90

2.00

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Halifax (5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Halifax in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Torquay

A

3

2

W

O

G

16 Feb

Barnet

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Maidenhead

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Dec

Altrincham

H

3

2

W

O

G

26 Dec

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G


Hartlepool in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Barnet

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Yeovil

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Feb

Eastleigh

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sutton

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Weymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Wealdstone

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Halifax is -0.109 and for the Hartlepool is 0.496.
The home dynamic for the Halifax is 0.104 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hartlepool is 0.027.
The offensive ability for the Halifax is 0.631 and for the Hartlepool is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Halifax is -0.631 and for the Hartlepool is 0.614.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Halifax

24%

33%

24%

19%

Hartlepool

30%

35%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.25 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.38 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.88

1

5.41

2-3

2.05

2

4.12

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

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