2021 03 02 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Northampton vs Plymouth at 02 March 2021
Blackpool vs Crewe at 02 March 2021
Wigan vs Charlton at 02 March 2021
Sunderland vs Swindon at 02 March 2021
Shrewsbury vs AFC Wimbledon at 02 March 2021
Oxford vs Peterboro at 02 March 2021
Lincoln vs Fleetwood Town at 02 March 2021
Hull vs Rochdale at 02 March 2021
Gillingham vs Milton Keynes Dons at 02 March 2021
Burton vs Bristol Rvs at 02 March 2021
Accrington vs Ipswich at 02 March 2021
Doncaster vs Portsmouth at 02 March 2021


Northampton vs Plymouth at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Plymouth for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Northampton

2.64

2.60

0.6

Draw

3.41

3.89

-3.6

Plymouth

2.57

2.79

-3.1

Over 2.5

1.87

1.89

-0.6

Under 2.5

1.95

2.13

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton (0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Northampton in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 28.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Swindon

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Rochdale

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

3

4

L

O

G

16 Feb

Ipswich

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Feb

Burton

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Wigan

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Blackpool

A

0

2

L

U

N


Plymouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance as a guest.
Plymouth, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Lincoln

H

4

3

W

O

G

23 Feb

Peterboro

H

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Rochdale

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Feb

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Accrington

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Portsmouth

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Swindon

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Northampton is -0.806 and for the Plymouth is 0.319.
The home dynamic for the Northampton is -0.494 and the dynamic as a guest for the Plymouth is -0.905.
The offensive ability for the Northampton is -0.459 and for the Plymouth is 0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Northampton is -0.202 and for the Plymouth is 0.166.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Plymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Northampton

29%

26%

27%

18%

Plymouth

24%

37%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.28 goals and Plymouth to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.35 goals and Plymouth to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.13

1

5.81

2-3

2.10

2

4.41

4+

3.55

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.13

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.55

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.72

3.46

2.26

2-3 goals

2.27

4.86

2.83

4+ goals

2.56

3.17

3.40

Ov 1.5

2.37

4.05

3.02

Un 1.5

3.72

3.46

2.26

Ov 2.5

2.08

5.97

2.84

Un 2.5

3.61

2.79

2.74

Ov 3.5

2.56

3.17

3.40

Un 3.5

2.61

4.27

2.61

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.88

3.80

No Goal

2.63

6.59

2.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

4.96

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.85

6.59

2.17


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Blackpool vs Crewe at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackpool and Crewe for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackpool

2.27

1.97

6.7

Draw

3.30

3.91

-4.7

Crewe

3.15

4.24

-8.2

Over 2.5

2.07

2.09

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.76

1.92

-4.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackpool (6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackpool in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance at home.
Blackpool, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Charlton

A

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Portsmouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Rochdale

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Ipswich

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Feb

Northampton

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Wigan

A

5

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Hull

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Bristol Rvs

A

1

2

L

O

G


Crewe in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance as a guest.
Crewe, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Sunderland

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Accrington

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Swindon

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Peterboro

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Feb

Shrewsbury

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Ipswich

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Gillingham

A

1

4

L

O

G

23 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Blackpool is 0.652 and for the Crewe is 0.
The home dynamic for the Blackpool is 0.338 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crewe is -0.405.
The offensive ability for the Blackpool is 0.631 and for the Crewe is 0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackpool is 0.948 and for the Crewe is -0.193.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackpool and the red line for guest team, Crewe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackpool

19%

34%

28%

19%

Crewe

38%

35%

16%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.33 goals and Crewe to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.48 goals and Crewe to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Blackpool to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.77

1

5.15

2-3

1.98

2

3.91

4+

4.33

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.77

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.07

3.73

4.02

2-3 goals

1.80

4.27

4.75

4+ goals

2.31

3.45

3.61

Ov 1.5

1.93

3.97

4.32

Un 1.5

2.07

3.73

4.02

Ov 2.5

1.75

7.15

3.45

Un 2.5

2.22

2.76

5.37

Ov 3.5

2.31

3.45

3.61

Un 3.5

1.88

4.07

4.47

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.72

4.20

No Goal

1.61

6.99

4.28

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

5.76

3.22

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

6.99

4.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wigan vs Charlton at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wigan and Charlton for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wigan

3.33

3.04

2.9

Draw

3.50

3.80

-2.3

Charlton

2.11

2.45

-6.6

Over 2.5

1.94

1.99

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.88

2.01

-3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wigan (2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wigan in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance at home.
Wigan, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Peterboro

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Lincoln

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Hull

H

0

5

L

O

N

14 Feb

Oxford

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Northampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

AFC Wimbledon

H

2

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Swindon

A

0

1

L

U

N


Charlton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance as a guest.
Charlton, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Blackpool

H

0

3

L

O

N

23 Feb

Burton

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Gillingham

H

2

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Feb

Portsmouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Swindon

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Wigan is -0.482 and for the Charlton is -0.533.
The home dynamic for the Wigan is -0.494 and the dynamic as a guest for the Charlton is 0.324.
The offensive ability for the Wigan is 0.631 and for the Charlton is 0.539.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wigan is -0.682 and for the Charlton is -0.641.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wigan and the red line for guest team, Charlton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wigan

32%

30%

23%

15%

Charlton

21%

38%

26%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.05 goals and Charlton to score 1.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Charlton to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.21 goals and Charlton to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.97

1

5.43

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

3.91

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.97

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.00

3.71

2.08

2-3 goals

2.92

4.38

2.33

4+ goals

2.64

3.08

3.37

Ov 1.5

2.82

3.83

2.60

Un 1.5

4.00

3.71

2.08

Ov 2.5

2.32

6.04

2.48

Un 2.5

4.45

2.77

2.42

Ov 3.5

2.64

3.08

3.37

Un 3.5

3.22

4.13

2.24

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.74

3.45

No Goal

3.23

6.84

1.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

5.08

2.72

NG+Un 2.5

3.45

6.84

1.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sunderland vs Swindon at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Swindon for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.45

2.02

-19.5

Draw

4.45

3.68

4.7

Swindon

6.61

4.29

8.2

Over 2.5

1.82

2.30

-11.5

Under 2.5

1.99

1.77

6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Swindon, Under 2.5 (4.7 %, 8.2 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Crewe

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Fleetwood Town

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Burton

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Doncaster

H

4

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Shrewsbury

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Gillingham

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Ipswich

A

1

0

W

U

N


Swindon in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance as a guest.
Swindon, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 10 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Lincoln

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Crewe

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Portsmouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Feb

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Hull

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Plymouth

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Sunderland is 0.312 and for the Swindon is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Sunderland is -0.182 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swindon is -0.689.
The offensive ability for the Sunderland is 1 and for the Swindon is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sunderland is -0.167 and for the Swindon is -0.668.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Swindon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

18%

42%

24%

17%

Swindon

39%

35%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.98 goals and Swindon to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 1.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.4 goals and Swindon to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.42

1

4.48

2-3

1.95

2

3.66

4+

5.10

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.42

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

5.10

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at