# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Northampton vs Plymouth at 02 March 2021**** Blackpool vs Crewe at 02 March 2021**** Wigan vs Charlton at 02 March 2021**** Sunderland vs Swindon at 02 March 2021**** Shrewsbury vs AFC Wimbledon at 02 March 2021**** Oxford vs Peterboro at 02 March 2021**** Lincoln vs Fleetwood Town at 02 March 2021**** Hull vs Rochdale at 02 March 2021**** Gillingham vs Milton Keynes Dons at 02 March 2021**** Burton vs Bristol Rvs at 02 March 2021**** Accrington vs Ipswich at 02 March 2021**** Doncaster vs Portsmouth at 02 March 2021**

###
Northampton vs Plymouth at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Northampton** and **Plymouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Northampton |
2.64 |
2.60 |
0.6 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.89 |
-3.6 |

Plymouth |
2.57 |
2.79 |
-3.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.89 |
-0.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.13 |
-4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Northampton (0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** at home**.

Northampton,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 28.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Burton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Plymouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Plymouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Plymouth,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Lincoln |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Rochdale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Northampton** is **-0.806** and for the **Plymouth** is **0.319.**

The home dynamic for the **Northampton** is **-0.494** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Plymouth** is **-0.905.**

The offensive ability for the **Northampton** is **-0.459** and for the **Plymouth** is **0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Northampton** is **-0.202** and for the **Plymouth** is **0.166.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Northampton** and the red line for guest team, **Plymouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Northampton |
29% |
26% |
27% |
18% |

Plymouth |
24% |
37% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Plymouth** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Plymouth** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
3.55 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.72 |
3.46 |
2.26 |

2-3 goals |
2.27 |
4.86 |
2.83 |

4+ goals |
2.56 |
3.17 |
3.40 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
4.05 |
3.02 |

Un 1.5 |
3.72 |
3.46 |
2.26 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.97 |
2.84 |

Un 2.5 |
3.61 |
2.79 |
2.74 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.17 |
3.40 |

Un 3.5 |
2.61 |
4.27 |
2.61 |

Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.88 |
3.80 |

No Goal |
2.63 |
6.59 |
2.13 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
4.96 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
6.59 |
2.17 |

####
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###
Blackpool vs Crewe at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Blackpool** and **Crewe** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Blackpool |
2.27 |
1.97 |
6.7 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.91 |
-4.7 |

Crewe |
3.15 |
4.24 |
-8.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.09 |
-0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.92 |
-4.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Blackpool (6.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Blackpool** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Blackpool** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance** at home**.

Blackpool,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Wigan |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Hull |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** as a guest**.

Crewe,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Blackpool** is **0.652** and for the **Crewe** is **0.**

The home dynamic for the **Blackpool** is **0.338** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crewe** is **-0.405.**

The offensive ability for the **Blackpool** is **0.631** and for the **Crewe** is **0.626.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Blackpool** is **0.948** and for the **Crewe** is **-0.193.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Blackpool** and the red line for guest team, **Crewe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Blackpool |
19% |
34% |
28% |
19% |

Crewe |
38% |
35% |
16% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Blackpool** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Blackpool** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Blackpool ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.33 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.07 |
3.73 |
4.02 |

2-3 goals |
1.80 |
4.27 |
4.75 |

4+ goals |
2.31 |
3.45 |
3.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.97 |
4.32 |

Un 1.5 |
2.07 |
3.73 |
4.02 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
7.15 |
3.45 |

Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.76 |
5.37 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.45 |
3.61 |

Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
4.07 |
4.47 |

Goal-Goal |
2.53 |
2.72 |
4.20 |

No Goal |
1.61 |
6.99 |
4.28 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
5.76 |
3.22 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
6.99 |
4.15 |

####
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###
Wigan vs Charlton at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wigan** and **Charlton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wigan |
3.33 |
3.04 |
2.9 |

Draw |
3.50 |
3.80 |
-2.3 |

Charlton |
2.11 |
2.45 |
-6.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.99 |
-1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.01 |
-3.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wigan (2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** at home**.

Wigan,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Hull |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Charlton** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Charlton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance** as a guest**.

Charlton,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Feb |
Burton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Gillingham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Wigan** is **-0.482** and for the **Charlton** is **-0.533.**

The home dynamic for the **Wigan** is **-0.494** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Charlton** is **0.324.**

The offensive ability for the **Wigan** is **0.631** and for the **Charlton** is **0.539.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wigan** is **-0.682** and for the **Charlton** is **-0.641.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wigan** and the red line for guest team, **Charlton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wigan |
32% |
30% |
23% |
15% |

Charlton |
21% |
38% |
26% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.46 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the guest team **Charlton ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.00 |
3.71 |
2.08 |

2-3 goals |
2.92 |
4.38 |
2.33 |

4+ goals |
2.64 |
3.08 |
3.37 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.82 |
3.83 |
2.60 |

Un 1.5 |
4.00 |
3.71 |
2.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.04 |
2.48 |

Un 2.5 |
4.45 |
2.77 |
2.42 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.64 |
3.08 |
3.37 |

Un 3.5 |
3.22 |
4.13 |
2.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.90 |
2.74 |
3.45 |

No Goal |
3.23 |
6.84 |
1.84 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
5.08 |
2.72 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.45 |
6.84 |
1.87 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sunderland vs Swindon at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sunderland** and **Swindon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sunderland |
1.45 |
2.02 |
-19.5 |

Draw |
4.45 |
3.68 |
4.7 |

Swindon |
6.61 |
4.29 |
8.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.30 |
-11.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.77 |
6.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Swindon, Under 2.5 (4.7 %, 8.2 %, 6.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** at home**.

Sunderland,** at home**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Crewe |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Burton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Doncaster |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Gillingham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** as a guest**.

Swindon,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 10 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Plymouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sunderland** is **0.312** and for the **Swindon** is **0.2.**

The home dynamic for the **Sunderland** is **-0.182** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Swindon** is **-0.689.**

The offensive ability for the **Sunderland** is **1** and for the **Swindon** is **0.278.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sunderland** is **-0.167** and for the **Swindon** is **-0.668.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sunderland** and the red line for guest team, **Swindon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sunderland |
18% |
42% |
24% |
17% |

Swindon |
39% |
35% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.98 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **0.65 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **1.33** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.42 |

1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.66 |
4+ |
5.10 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.10 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |