2021 03 02 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Stevenage vs Forest Green at 02 March 2021
Barrow vs Harrogate at 02 March 2021
Bradford vs Mansfield at 02 March 2021
Cambridge vs Scunthorpe at 02 March 2021
Cheltenham vs Southend at 02 March 2021
Colchester vs Carlisle at 02 March 2021
Exeter vs Walsall at 02 March 2021
Grimsby vs Leyton Orient at 02 March 2021
Morecambe vs Crawley Town at 02 March 2021
Tranmere vs Newport County at 02 March 2021
Oldham vs Bolton at 02 March 2021
Salford vs Port Vale at 02 March 2021


Stevenage vs Forest Green at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Forest Green for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stevenage

3.02

3.22

-2.1

Draw

3.10

3.73

-5.4

Forest Green

2.45

2.38

1.2

Over 2.5

2.22

2.11

2.3

Under 2.5

1.66

1.90

-7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Forest Green, Over 2.5 (1.2 %, 2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stevenage in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Newport County

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Feb

Port Vale

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Crawley Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Morecambe

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Feb

Exeter

H

0

1

L

U

N


Forest Green in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance as a guest.
Forest Green, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 62.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Colchester

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Feb

Southend

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Feb

Newport County

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Oldham

H

4

3

W

O

G

02 Feb

Carlisle

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Cheltenham

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Leyton Orient

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Tranmere

A

2

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Stevenage is 0.069 and for the Forest Green is 0.496.
The home dynamic for the Stevenage is -0.182 and the dynamic as a guest for the Forest Green is 0.216.
The offensive ability for the Stevenage is -0.227 and for the Forest Green is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stevenage is 0.571 and for the Forest Green is 0.229.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Forest Green.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stevenage

34%

31%

24%

12%

Forest Green

23%

37%

25%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.05 goals and Forest Green to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.13 goals and Forest Green to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.68

1

5.13

2-3

2.02

2

3.95

4+

4.31

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.68

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.89

3.53

2.18

2-3 goals

2.93

4.31

2.34

4+ goals

3.22

3.01

2.80

Ov 1.5

3.02

3.79

2.47

Un 1.5

3.89

3.53

2.18

Ov 2.5

2.54

6.17

2.25

Un 2.5

4.23

2.73

2.51

Ov 3.5

3.22

3.01

2.80

Un 3.5

3.21

4.00

2.28

Goal-Goal

3.20

2.67

3.20

No Goal

3.23

6.34

1.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.48

5.16

2.48

NG+Un 2.5

3.31

6.34

1.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barrow vs Harrogate at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barrow and Harrogate for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barrow

2.99

2.52

6.2

Draw

3.27

3.60

-2.8

Harrogate

2.57

3.08

-6.4

Over 2.5

2.04

2.26

-4.8

Under 2.5

1.84

1.79

1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barrow, Under 2.5 (6.2 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barrow in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance at home.
Barrow, at home, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Oldham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Morecambe

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Salford

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Cambridge

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Bradford

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Southend

A

0

1

L

U

N


Harrogate in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance as a guest.
Harrogate, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Grimsby

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Scunthorpe

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Feb

Carlisle

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Crawley Town

A

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Newport County

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Tranmere

A

2

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Barrow is -0.781 and for the Harrogate is 0.356.
The home dynamic for the Barrow is -0.312 and the dynamic as a guest for the Harrogate is 0.041.
The offensive ability for the Barrow is -0.176 and for the Harrogate is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Barrow is -0.571 and for the Harrogate is 0.318.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barrow and the red line for guest team, Harrogate.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barrow

28%

34%

24%

14%

Harrogate

32%

37%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.15 goals and Harrogate to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.24 goals and Harrogate to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.34

1

4.76

2-3

2.03

2

3.86

4+

4.81

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.34

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

3.36

2.93

2-3 goals

2.35

3.97

3.09

4+ goals

2.60

3.20

3.30

Ov 1.5

2.42

3.70

3.15

Un 1.5

2.77

3.36

2.93

Ov 2.5

2.08

6.78

2.69

Un 2.5

3.02

2.62

3.49

Ov 3.5

2.60

3.20

3.30

Un 3.5

2.50

3.71

3.03

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.60

3.66

No Goal

2.22

5.71

2.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

5.65

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

5.71

2.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bradford vs Mansfield at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bradford and Mansfield for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bradford

2.53

2.48

0.8

Draw

3.13

3.62

-4.3

Mansfield

2.89

3.12

-2.6

Over 2.5

2.06

2.19

-2.9

Under 2.5

1.77

1.84

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bradford (0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bradford in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance at home.
Bradford, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Walsall

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Leyton Orient

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Cheltenham

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Exeter

A

2

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Barrow

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Southend

A

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Cambridge

A

0

0

D

U

N


Mansfield in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance as a guest.
Mansfield, as a guest, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Morecambe

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Harrogate

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Cambridge

H

0

3

L

O

N

17 Feb

Bolton

H

2

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Colchester

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Feb

Walsall

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Southend

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Jan

Oldham

A

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Bradford is 0.676 and for the Mansfield is -0.319.
The home dynamic for the Bradford is -0.455 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mansfield is 0.162.
The offensive ability for the Bradford is 1 and for the Mansfield is 0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bradford is -0.167 and for the Mansfield is -0.525.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bradford and the red line for guest team, Mansfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bradford

26%

35%

24%

15%

Mansfield

31%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.25 goals and Mansfield to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.27 goals and Mansfield to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.47

1

4.88

2-3

2.03

2

3.89

4+

4.55

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.47

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.47

3.00

2-3 goals

2.37

3.91

3.10

4+ goals

2.56

3.28

3.28

Ov 1.5

2.43

3.69

3.15

Un 1.5

2.64

3.47

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.08

6.81

2.68

Un 2.5

2.96

2.61

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.56

3.28

3.28

Un 3.5

2.46

3.74

3.06

Goal-Goal

2.94

2.62

3.61

No Goal

2.15

5.98

2.73

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.20

5.66

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

5.98

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cambridge vs Scunthorpe at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cambridge and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cambridge

2.18

2.28

-2.0

Draw

3.19

3.70

-4.3

Scunthorpe

3.49

3.42

0.6

Over 2.5

2.15

2.11

0.9

Under 2.5

1.71

1.90

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe, Over 2.5 (0.6 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cambridge in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance at home.
Cambridge, at home, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 60.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Port Vale

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Mansfield

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Feb

Salford

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Feb

Barrow

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Crawley Town

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Bradford

H

0

0

D

U

N


Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 5 wins, no draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Bolton

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Harrogate

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Colchester

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Port Vale

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Grimsby

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Barrow

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Jan

Salford

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Cambridge is 0.093 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.237.
The home dynamic for the Cambridge is 0.026 and the dynamic as a guest for the Scunthorpe is -0.216.
The offensive ability for the Cambridge is 0.202 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.104.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cambridge is 0.545 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.076.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cambridge and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cambridge

24%

33%

26%

17%

Scunthorpe

32%

37%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.35 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Cambridge to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.36 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.68

1

5.13

2-3

2.01

2

3.94

4+

4.35

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.68

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54