# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Stevenage vs Forest Green at 02 March 2021**** Barrow vs Harrogate at 02 March 2021**** Bradford vs Mansfield at 02 March 2021**** Cambridge vs Scunthorpe at 02 March 2021**** Cheltenham vs Southend at 02 March 2021**** Colchester vs Carlisle at 02 March 2021**** Exeter vs Walsall at 02 March 2021**** Grimsby vs Leyton Orient at 02 March 2021**** Morecambe vs Crawley Town at 02 March 2021**** Tranmere vs Newport County at 02 March 2021**** Oldham vs Bolton at 02 March 2021**** Salford vs Port Vale at 02 March 2021**

###
Stevenage vs Forest Green at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stevenage** and **Forest Green** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stevenage |
3.02 |
3.22 |
-2.1 |

Draw |
3.10 |
3.73 |
-5.4 |

Forest Green |
2.45 |
2.38 |
1.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.11 |
2.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.90 |
-7.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Forest Green, Over 2.5 (1.2 %, 2.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** at home**.

Stevenage,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Forest Green** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Forest Green** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance** as a guest**.

Forest Green,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 62.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Feb |
Southend |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Newport County |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Oldham |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Stevenage** is **0.069** and for the **Forest Green** is **0.496.**

The home dynamic for the **Stevenage** is **-0.182** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Forest Green** is **0.216.**

The offensive ability for the **Stevenage** is **-0.227** and for the **Forest Green** is **0.678.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stevenage** is **0.571** and for the **Forest Green** is **0.229.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stevenage** and the red line for guest team, **Forest Green. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stevenage |
34% |
31% |
24% |
12% |

Forest Green |
23% |
37% |
25% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.89 |
3.53 |
2.18 |

2-3 goals |
2.93 |
4.31 |
2.34 |

4+ goals |
3.22 |
3.01 |
2.80 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.02 |
3.79 |
2.47 |

Un 1.5 |
3.89 |
3.53 |
2.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.54 |
6.17 |
2.25 |

Un 2.5 |
4.23 |
2.73 |
2.51 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.22 |
3.01 |
2.80 |

Un 3.5 |
3.21 |
4.00 |
2.28 |

Goal-Goal |
3.20 |
2.67 |
3.20 |

No Goal |
3.23 |
6.34 |
1.88 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |
5.16 |
2.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.31 |
6.34 |
1.96 |

####
Go to Top

###
Barrow vs Harrogate at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barrow** and **Harrogate** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barrow |
2.99 |
2.52 |
6.2 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.60 |
-2.8 |

Harrogate |
2.57 |
3.08 |
-6.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.26 |
-4.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.79 |
1.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Barrow, Under 2.5 (6.2 %, 1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** at home**.

Barrow,** at home**, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Salford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Southend |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** as a guest**.

Harrogate,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Barrow** is **-0.781** and for the **Harrogate** is **0.356.**

The home dynamic for the **Barrow** is **-0.312** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Harrogate** is **0.041.**

The offensive ability for the **Barrow** is **-0.176** and for the **Harrogate** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Barrow** is **-0.571** and for the **Harrogate** is **0.318.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barrow** and the red line for guest team, **Harrogate. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barrow |
28% |
34% |
24% |
14% |

Harrogate |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.34 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.77 |
3.36 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.35 |
3.97 |
3.09 |

4+ goals |
2.60 |
3.20 |
3.30 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.70 |
3.15 |

Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.36 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.78 |
2.69 |

Un 2.5 |
3.02 |
2.62 |
3.49 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.20 |
3.30 |

Un 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.71 |
3.03 |

Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.60 |
3.66 |

No Goal |
2.22 |
5.71 |
2.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.65 |
2.74 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
5.71 |
2.71 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bradford vs Mansfield at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bradford** and **Mansfield** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bradford |
2.53 |
2.48 |
0.8 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.62 |
-4.3 |

Mansfield |
2.89 |
3.12 |
-2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.19 |
-2.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.84 |
-2.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bradford (0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** at home**.

Bradford,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Cheltenham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Southend |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Mansfield,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Feb |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Southend |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Bradford** is **0.676** and for the **Mansfield** is **-0.319.**

The home dynamic for the **Bradford** is **-0.455** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Mansfield** is **0.162.**

The offensive ability for the **Bradford** is **1** and for the **Mansfield** is **0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bradford** is **-0.167** and for the **Mansfield** is **-0.525.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bradford** and the red line for guest team, **Mansfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bradford |
26% |
35% |
24% |
15% |

Mansfield |
31% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Mansfield** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Mansfield** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.64 |
3.47 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.37 |
3.91 |
3.10 |

4+ goals |
2.56 |
3.28 |
3.28 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.69 |
3.15 |

Un 1.5 |
2.64 |
3.47 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.81 |
2.68 |

Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.61 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.28 |
3.28 |

Un 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.74 |
3.06 |

Goal-Goal |
2.94 |
2.62 |
3.61 |

No Goal |
2.15 |
5.98 |
2.73 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
5.66 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
5.98 |
2.76 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cambridge vs Scunthorpe at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cambridge** and **Scunthorpe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cambridge |
2.18 |
2.28 |
-2.0 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.70 |
-4.3 |

Scunthorpe |
3.49 |
3.42 |
0.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.11 |
0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.90 |
-5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Scunthorpe, Over 2.5 (0.6 %, 0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cambridge** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cambridge** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance** at home**.

Cambridge,** at home**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 60.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Salford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** as a guest**.

Scunthorpe,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, no draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Harrogate |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Cambridge** is **0.093** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.237.**

The home dynamic for the **Cambridge** is **0.026** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.216.**

The offensive ability for the **Cambridge** is **0.202** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.104.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cambridge** is **0.545** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.076.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cambridge** and the red line for guest team, **Scunthorpe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cambridge |
24% |
33% |
26% |
17% |

Scunthorpe |
32% |
37% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cambridge** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **Cambridge ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cambridge** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.54 |