2021 03 02 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

St Etienne vs Lens at 03 March 2021
Strasbourg vs Monaco at 03 March 2021
Nice vs Nimes at 03 March 2021
Nantes vs Reims at 03 March 2021
Metz vs Angers at 03 March 2021
Lyon vs Rennes at 03 March 2021
Lille vs Marseille at 03 March 2021
Brest vs Dijon at 03 March 2021
Bordeaux vs Paris SG at 03 March 2021
Montpellier vs Lorient at 03 March 2021


St Etienne vs Lens at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between St Etienne and Lens for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

St Etienne

2.78

2.43

5.2

Draw

3.27

3.61

-2.9

Lens

2.61

3.21

-7.2

Over 2.5

2.17

2.43

-4.9

Under 2.5

1.72

1.70

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at St Etienne, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

St Etienne in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance at home.
St Etienne, at home, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Lorient

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Reims

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Rennes

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Metz

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Nice

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Lyon

H

0

5

L

O

N

17 Jan

Strasbourg

A

0

1

L

U

N


Lens in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance as a guest.
Lens, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Angers

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Dijon

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Reims

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Rennes

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Marseille

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Montpellier

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Nice

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Jan

Marseille

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the St Etienne is 0.206 and for the Lens is 0.319.
The home dynamic for the St Etienne is -0.312 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lens is 0.135.
The offensive ability for the St Etienne is 1 and for the Lens is 0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the St Etienne is 0.09 and for the Lens is -0.614.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, St Etienne and the red line for guest team, Lens.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

St Etienne

29%

33%

28%

10%

Lens

36%

36%

15%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.13 goals and Lens to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.2 goals and Lens to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.71

0-1

3.07

1

4.48

2-3

2.05

2

3.80

4+

5.38

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.26

Un 1.5

3.07

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.44

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

5.38

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

3.17

3.17

2-3 goals

2.03

4.09

3.80

4+ goals

3.65

3.38

2.33

Ov 1.5

2.31

3.87

3.24

Un 1.5

2.72

3.17

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.17

7.45

2.47

Un 2.5

2.65

2.65

4.06

Ov 3.5

3.65

3.38

2.33

Un 3.5

2.26

3.66

3.52

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.62

3.53

No Goal

2.10

5.27

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.20

6.13

2.61

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

5.27

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Strasbourg vs Monaco at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Strasbourg and Monaco for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Strasbourg

4.02

2.36

17.5

Draw

3.72

3.68

0.3

Monaco

1.88

3.29

-22.8

Over 2.5

1.83

2.49

-14.5

Under 2.5

2.02

1.67

10.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Strasbourg, Draw, Under 2.5 (17.5 %, 0.3 %, 10.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Strasbourg in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance at home.
Strasbourg, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Lille

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Metz

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 Feb

Brest

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Reims

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Dijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Jan

St Etienne

H

1

0

W

U

N


Monaco in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance as a guest.
Monaco, as a guest, had 8 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 61.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Brest

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Paris SG

A

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Lorient

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Feb

Nimes

A

4

3

W

O

G

03 Feb

Nice

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Nantes

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Marseille

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Jan

Montpellier

A

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Strasbourg is -0.231 and for the Monaco is 0.83.
The home dynamic for the Strasbourg is -0.519 and the dynamic as a guest for the Monaco is -0.324.
The offensive ability for the Strasbourg is -0.116 and for the Monaco is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Strasbourg is -0.571 and for the Monaco is -0.076.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Strasbourg and the red line for guest team, Monaco.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Strasbourg

29%

31%

30%

10%

Monaco

38%

36%

11%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 0.96 goals and Monaco to score 1.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the guest team Monaco to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.2 goals and Monaco to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.93

0-1

2.97

1

4.44

2-3

2.08

2

3.86

4+

5.52

3

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

8.85

Un 1.5

2.97

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.48

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

5.52

NoG

1.78

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.83

3.01

3.18

2-3 goals

1.86

4.29

4.37

4+ goals

3.93

3.77

2.08

Ov 1.5

2.17

4.14

3.36

Un 1.5

2.83

3.01

3.18

Ov 2.5

2.11

8.40

2.46

Un 2.5

2.56

2.66

4.29

Ov 3.5

3.93

3.77

2.08

Un 3.5

2.16

3.65

3.79

Goal-Goal

2.83

2.72

3.57

No Goal

2.09

5.03

3.11

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

6.75

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

5.03

3.48


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nice vs Nimes at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nice and Nimes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nice

1.77

2.12

-9.3

Draw

3.84

3.70

1.0

Nimes

4.51

3.85

3.8

Over 2.5

1.83

2.38

-12.6

Under 2.5

2.02

1.73

8.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Nimes, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3.8 %, 8.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nice in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance at home.
Nice, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Feb

Rennes

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Metz

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Marseille

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Paris SG

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Angers

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Feb

Monaco

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

St Etienne

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Lens

A

1

0

W

U

N


Nimes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance as a guest.
Nimes, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Feb

Lorient

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Bordeaux

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Dijon

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Monaco

H

3

4

L

O

G

03 Feb

Paris SG

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Angers

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Marseille

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Nice is -0.433 and for the Nimes is 0.237.
The home dynamic for the Nice is -0.662 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nimes is -0.338.
The offensive ability for the Nice is 1 and for the Nimes is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nice is -0.657 and for the Nimes is 0.256.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nice and the red line for guest team, Nimes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nice

25%

31%

30%

14%

Nimes

39%

36%

16%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nice to score 1.75 goals and Nimes to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nice to score 1.32 goals and Nimes to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.22

1

4.72

2-3

2.00

2

3.73

4+

5.32

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.22

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.38

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.14

3.46

2-3 goals

1.80

4.51

4.51

4+ goals

2.69

3.13

3.24

Ov 1.5

1.97

4.03

4.08

Un 1.5

2.55

3.14

3.46

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.02

3.24

Un 2.5

2.41

2.76

4.49

Ov 3.5

2.69

3.13

3.24

Un 3.5

2.02

3.87

4.04

Goal-Goal

2.56

2.66

4.29

No Goal

1.86

5.51

3.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.93

5.73

3.25

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

5.51

3.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Nantes vs Reims at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nantes and Reims for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nantes

2.47

2.40

1.2

Draw

3.04

3.66

-5.6

Reims

3.22

3.23

-0.1

Over 2.5

2.45

2.39

1.0

Under 2.5

1.58

1.72

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nantes, Over 2.5 (1.2 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nantes in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance at home.
Nantes, at home, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Marseille

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Angers

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Lille

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Feb

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Monaco

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Metz

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G


Reims in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance as a guest.
Reims, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Montpellier

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Lorient

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Feb

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Jan

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Brest

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Lille

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Nantes is -0.231 and for the Reims is -0.022.
The home dynamic for the Nantes is -0.182 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reims is -0.459.
The offensive ability for the Nantes is 0.631 and for the Reims is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nantes is -1 and for the Reims is 0.166.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nantes and the red line for guest team, Reims.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nantes

29%

31%

30%

10%

Reims

36%

36%

15%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.16 goals and Reims to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.22 goals and Reims to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.71

0-1

3.14

1

4.65

2-3

2.04

2

3.80

4+

5.29

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.14

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.40

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

5.29

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.09