# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Man City vs Wolves at 02 March 2021**** Sheffield United vs Aston Villa at 03 March 2021**** Crystal Palace vs Man United at 03 March 2021**** Burnley vs Leicester at 03 March 2021**** Fulham vs Tottenham at 04 March 2021**** Liverpool vs Chelsea at 04 March 2021**** West Brom vs Everton at 04 March 2021**

###
Man City vs Wolves at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man City** and **Wolves** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man City |
1.23 |
1.47 |
-13.3 |

Draw |
6.56 |
4.88 |
5.2 |

Wolves |
15.98 |
8.70 |
5.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.10 |
-9.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.15 |
1.91 |
5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Wolves, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 5.2 %, 5.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** at home**.

Man City,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Everton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Tottenham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolves,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Feb |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Man City** is **1** and for the **Wolves** is **0.37.**

The home dynamic for the **Man City** is **0.727** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wolves** is **-0.419.**

The offensive ability for the **Man City** is **1** and for the **Wolves** is **0.304.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Man City** is **0.116** and for the **Wolves** is **-0.166.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man City** and the red line for guest team, **Wolves. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man City |
9% |
38% |
22% |
31% |

Wolves |
53% |
31% |
11% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man City** to score **2.38 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **0.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.75** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **2.01** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.74 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **0.68 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **1.06** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
20.41 |
0-1 |
3.56 |

1 |
4.31 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
5.05 |

3 |
3.60 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
2.36 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.05 |

NoG |
1.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.38 |
5.73 |
10.04 |

2-3 goals |
1.50 |
4.45 |
9.14 |

4+ goals |
1.53 |
5.08 |
6.60 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |
4.61 |
8.26 |

Un 1.5 |
1.38 |
5.73 |
10.04 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.32 |
12.21 |
6.18 |

Un 2.5 |
1.64 |
3.16 |
13.79 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.53 |
5.08 |
6.60 |

Un 3.5 |
1.46 |
4.83 |
9.44 |

Goal-Goal |
2.17 |
2.71 |
5.88 |

No Goal |
1.19 |
11.78 |
13.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |
7.85 |
4.25 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.27 |
11.78 |
10.71 |

####
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###
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield United** and **Aston Villa** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **03 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield United |
3.70 |
5.18 |
-7.7 |

Draw |
3.44 |
4.46 |
-6.6 |

Aston Villa |
2.09 |
1.72 |
10.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.21 |
1.80 |
10.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.25 |
-14.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aston Villa, Over 2.5 (10.3 %, 10.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield United,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 17.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Feb |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Feb |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Man United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** as a guest**.

Aston Villa,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.862** and for the **Aston Villa** is **0.163.**

The home dynamic for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.961** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Aston Villa** is **0.338.**

The offensive ability for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.605** and for the **Aston Villa** is **0.591.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sheffield United** is **-1** and for the **Aston Villa** is **0.614.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield United** and the red line for guest team, **Aston Villa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield United |
43% |
19% |
38% |
0% |

Aston Villa |
14% |
30% |
28% |
28% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the guest team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.7 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the guest team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.75** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.67 |
0-1 |
4.67 |

1 |
6.49 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
3.73 |

3 |
3.50 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.67 |

5 |
9.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
Inf |
Un 2.5 |
2.25 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.73 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
7.93 |
3.57 |
1.69 |

2-3 goals |
3.13 |
9.05 |
1.76 |

4+ goals |
Inf |
2.53 |
1.65 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.75 |
4.81 |
1.72 |

Un 1.5 |
7.93 |
3.57 |
1.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
4.95 |
5.23 |
1.65 |

Un 2.5 |
5.55 |
3.79 |
1.80 |

Ov 3.5 |
Inf |
2.53 |
1.65 |

Un 3.5 |
3.80 |
6.24 |
1.73 |

Goal-Goal |
4.38 |
3.01 |
2.27 |

No Goal |
6.34 |
8.45 |
1.38 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.88 |
4.09 |
2.01 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
4.84 |
8.45 |
1.57 |

####
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###
Crystal Palace vs Man United at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crystal Palace** and **Man United** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **03 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crystal Palace |
7.53 |
3.39 |
16.2 |

Draw |
4.59 |
3.89 |
3.9 |

Man United |
1.45 |
2.23 |
-24.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.95 |
-4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.05 |
0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crystal Palace, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.2 %, 3.9 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** at home**.

Crystal Palace,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Brighton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** as a guest**.

Man United,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 29 points, 74.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
West Brom |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Everton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Southampton |
H |
9 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Crystal Palace** is **0.053** and for the **Man United** is **0.333.**

The home dynamic for the **Crystal Palace** is **-0.117** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Man United** is **1.**

The offensive ability for the **Crystal Palace** is **-0.227** and for the **Man United** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crystal Palace** is **-0.227** and for the **Man United** is **0.166.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crystal Palace** and the red line for guest team, **Man United. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crystal Palace |
34% |
31% |
22% |
13% |

Man United |
23% |
32% |
24% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **0.63 ** goals and **Man United** to score **2.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the guest team **Man United ** to win by **1.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Man United** to score **1.43 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.77 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.77 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.62 |
3.29 |
2.38 |

2-3 goals |
3.17 |
4.83 |
2.10 |

4+ goals |
3.68 |
3.27 |
2.37 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.33 |
4.13 |
2.19 |

Un 1.5 |
3.62 |
3.29 |
2.38 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.97 |
6.31 |
1.98 |

Un 2.5 |
4.01 |
2.76 |
2.57 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.68 |
3.27 |
2.37 |

Un 3.5 |
3.31 |
4.15 |
2.19 |

Goal-Goal |
3.57 |
2.83 |
2.73 |

No Goal |
3.25 |
6.28 |
1.88 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.87 |
5.07 |
2.20 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.20 |
6.28 |
2.05 |

####
Go to Top

###
Burnley vs Leicester at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burnley** and **Leicester** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **03 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burnley |
4.00 |
4.15 |
-0.9 |

Draw |
3.30 |
4.18 |
-6.4 |

Leicester |
2.06 |
1.92 |
3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
1.84 |
7.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
2.19 |
-11.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leicester, Over 2.5 (3.5 %, 7.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burnley** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burnley** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance** at home**.

Burnley,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
West Brom |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Leicester** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leicester** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance** as a guest**.

Leicester,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 30 points, 76.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Aston Villa |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Liverpool |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Everton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Jan |
Chelsea |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Burnley** is **-0.279** and for the **Leicester** is **0.17.**

The home dynamic for the **Burnley** is **0** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leicester** is **0.676.**

The offensive ability for the **Burnley** is **-0.202** and for the **Leicester** is **0.626.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Burnley** is **-0.202** and for the **Leicester** is **-0.256.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burnley** and the red line for guest team, **Leicester. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burnley |
39% |
21% |
34% |
5% |

Leicester |
18% |
30% |
27% |
26% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **0.91 ** goals and **Leicester** to score **1.44 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the guest team **Leicester ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Leicester** to score **1.6 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the guest team **Leicester ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.42 |

1 |
6.41 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
3.62 |

3 |
3.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.42 |

5 |
9.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.62 |