2021 03 02 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Man City vs Wolves at 02 March 2021
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa at 03 March 2021
Crystal Palace vs Man United at 03 March 2021
Burnley vs Leicester at 03 March 2021
Fulham vs Tottenham at 04 March 2021
Liverpool vs Chelsea at 04 March 2021
West Brom vs Everton at 04 March 2021


Man City vs Wolves at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and Wolves for Premier League (England), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man City

1.23

1.47

-13.3

Draw

6.56

4.88

5.2

Wolves

15.98

8.70

5.2

Over 2.5

1.76

2.10

-9.2

Under 2.5

2.15

1.91

5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Wolves, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 5.2 %, 5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man City in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

West Ham

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Arsenal

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Tottenham

H

3

0

W

O

N

07 Feb

Liverpool

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Burnley

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

West Brom

A

5

0

W

O

N


Wolves in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance as a guest.
Wolves, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Leeds

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Southampton

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Leicester

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Arsenal

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Crystal Palace

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Jan

Chelsea

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

West Brom

H

2

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Man City is 1 and for the Wolves is 0.37.
The home dynamic for the Man City is 0.727 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wolves is -0.419.
The offensive ability for the Man City is 1 and for the Wolves is 0.304.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Man City is 0.116 and for the Wolves is -0.166.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, Wolves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man City

9%

38%

22%

31%

Wolves

53%

31%

11%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 2.38 goals and Wolves to score 0.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 2.01 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.74 goals and Wolves to score 0.68 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.41

0-1

3.56

1

4.31

2-3

1.92

2

4.12

4+

5.05

3

3.60

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.56

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

2.36

Ov 3.5

5.05

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.38

5.73

10.04

2-3 goals

1.50

4.45

9.14

4+ goals

1.53

5.08

6.60

Ov 1.5

1.51

4.61

8.26

Un 1.5

1.38

5.73

10.04

Ov 2.5

1.32

12.21

6.18

Un 2.5

1.64

3.16

13.79

Ov 3.5

1.53

5.08

6.60

Un 3.5

1.46

4.83

9.44

Goal-Goal

2.17

2.71

5.88

No Goal

1.19

11.78

13.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.57

7.85

4.25

NG+Un 2.5

1.27

11.78

10.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sheffield United vs Aston Villa at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield United and Aston Villa for Premier League (England), which will take place on 03 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield United

3.70

5.18

-7.7

Draw

3.44

4.46

-6.6

Aston Villa

2.09

1.72

10.3

Over 2.5

2.21

1.80

10.3

Under 2.5

1.70

2.25

-14.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Over 2.5 (10.3 %, 10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield United in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance at home.
Sheffield United, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 17.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Liverpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Fulham

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Feb

West Ham

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Feb

Chelsea

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

West Brom

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Man City

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Jan

Man United

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Tottenham

H

1

3

L

O

G


Aston Villa in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance as a guest.
Aston Villa, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Leeds

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Arsenal

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

West Ham

H

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Southampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Burnley

A

2

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Sheffield United is -0.862 and for the Aston Villa is 0.163.
The home dynamic for the Sheffield United is -0.961 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aston Villa is 0.338.
The offensive ability for the Sheffield United is -0.605 and for the Aston Villa is 0.591.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sheffield United is -1 and for the Aston Villa is 0.614.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield United and the red line for guest team, Aston Villa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield United

43%

19%

38%

0%

Aston Villa

14%

30%

28%

28%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 0.92 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the guest team Aston Villa to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 0.95 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Aston Villa to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

4.67

1

6.49

2-3

1.94

2

4.35

4+

3.73

3

3.50

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.67

5

9.35

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

Inf

Un 2.5

2.25

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

3.73

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

7.93

3.57

1.69

2-3 goals

3.13

9.05

1.76

4+ goals

Inf

2.53

1.65

Ov 1.5

4.75

4.81

1.72

Un 1.5

7.93

3.57

1.69

Ov 2.5

4.95

5.23

1.65

Un 2.5

5.55

3.79

1.80

Ov 3.5

Inf

2.53

1.65

Un 3.5

3.80

6.24

1.73

Goal-Goal

4.38

3.01

2.27

No Goal

6.34

8.45

1.38

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.88

4.09

2.01

NG+Un 2.5

4.84

8.45

1.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Crystal Palace vs Man United at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and Man United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 03 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crystal Palace

7.53

3.39

16.2

Draw

4.59

3.89

3.9

Man United

1.45

2.23

-24.1

Over 2.5

1.79

1.95

-4.6

Under 2.5

2.08

2.05

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crystal Palace, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.2 %, 3.9 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crystal Palace in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance at home.
Crystal Palace, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Fulham

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Feb

Brighton

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Burnley

H

0

3

L

O

N

08 Feb

Leeds

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Feb

Newcastle

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Wolves

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

West Ham

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Man City

A

0

4

L

O

N


Man United in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance as a guest.
Man United, as a guest, had 8 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 29 points, 74.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Chelsea

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Newcastle

H

3

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

West Brom

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Everton

H

3

3

D

O

G

02 Feb

Southampton

H

9

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Arsenal

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Sheffield United

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Jan

Fulham

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Crystal Palace is 0.053 and for the Man United is 0.333.
The home dynamic for the Crystal Palace is -0.117 and the dynamic as a guest for the Man United is 1.
The offensive ability for the Crystal Palace is -0.227 and for the Man United is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crystal Palace is -0.227 and for the Man United is 0.166.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crystal Palace and the red line for guest team, Man United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crystal Palace

34%

31%

22%

13%

Man United

23%

32%

24%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 0.63 goals and Man United to score 2.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the guest team Man United to win by 1.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.14 goals and Man United to score 1.43 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.89

1

5.59

2-3

2.09

2

4.31

4+

3.77

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.89

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.77

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.62

3.29

2.38

2-3 goals

3.17

4.83

2.10

4+ goals

3.68

3.27

2.37

Ov 1.5

3.33

4.13

2.19

Un 1.5

3.62

3.29

2.38

Ov 2.5

2.97

6.31

1.98

Un 2.5

4.01

2.76

2.57

Ov 3.5

3.68

3.27

2.37

Un 3.5

3.31

4.15

2.19

Goal-Goal

3.57

2.83

2.73

No Goal

3.25

6.28

1.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.87

5.07

2.20

NG+Un 2.5

3.20

6.28

2.05


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Burnley vs Leicester at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Burnley and Leicester for Premier League (England), which will take place on 03 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burnley

4.00

4.15

-0.9

Draw

3.30

4.18

-6.4

Leicester

2.06

1.92

3.5

Over 2.5

2.12

1.84

7.2

Under 2.5

1.75

2.19

-11.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leicester, Over 2.5 (3.5 %, 7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burnley in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance at home.
Burnley, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Tottenham

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Feb

West Brom

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Feb

Fulham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Crystal Palace

A

3

0

W

O

N

06 Feb

Brighton

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Feb

Man City

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Jan

Aston Villa

H

3

2

W

O

G


Leicester in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leicester in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance as a guest.
Leicester, as a guest, had 9 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 30 points, 76.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Arsenal

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Feb

Aston Villa

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Liverpool

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Wolves

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Fulham

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Leeds

H

1

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Everton

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Jan

Chelsea

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Burnley is -0.279 and for the Leicester is 0.17.
The home dynamic for the Burnley is 0 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leicester is 0.676.
The offensive ability for the Burnley is -0.202 and for the Leicester is 0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Burnley is -0.202 and for the Leicester is -0.256.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burnley and the red line for guest team, Leicester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burnley

39%

21%

34%

5%

Leicester

18%

30%

27%

26%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burnley to score 0.91 goals and Leicester to score 1.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the guest team Leicester to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.05 goals and Leicester to score 1.6 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Leicester to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.42

1

6.41

2-3

2.01

2

4.37

4+

3.62

3

3.72

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.42

5

9.90

Ov 2.5

1.83

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

2.20

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.62