2021 03 02 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lazio vs Torino at 02 March 2021
Juventus vs Spezia at 02 March 2021
Sassuolo vs Napoli at 03 March 2021
Atalanta vs Crotone at 03 March 2021
Milan vs Udinese at 03 March 2021
Genoa vs Sampdoria at 03 March 2021
Fiorentina vs Roma at 03 March 2021
Cagliari vs Bologna at 03 March 2021
Benevento vs Verona at 03 March 2021
Parma vs Inter at 04 March 2021


Lazio vs Torino at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lazio and Torino for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lazio

1.46

2.34

-25.8

Draw

4.42

3.56

5.5

Torino

7.69

3.45

16.0

Over 2.5

1.84

2.29

-10.7

Under 2.5

2.01

1.77

6.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Torino, Under 2.5 (5.5 %, 16 %, 6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lazio in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance at home.
Lazio, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Bologna

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Sampdoria

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Inter

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Atalanta

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Sassuolo

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Jan

Roma

H

3

0

W

O

N

10 Jan

Parma

A

2

0

W

U

N


Torino in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance as a guest.
Torino, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Feb

Cagliari

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Atalanta

A

3

3

D

O

G

29 Jan

Fiorentina

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Spezia

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Lazio is 0.19 and for the Torino is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Lazio is 0.156 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torino is -0.311.
The offensive ability for the Lazio is 0.545 and for the Torino is 0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lazio is -0.202 and for the Torino is 0.256.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lazio and the red line for guest team, Torino.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lazio

30%

26%

30%

14%

Torino

47%

11%

33%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lazio to score 2.02 goals and Torino to score 0.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the home team Lazio to win by 1.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lazio to score 1.29 goals and Torino to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.14

0-1

3.40

1

6.49

2-3

2.07

2

3.70

4+

4.44

3

4.72

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.40

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.68

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

2.10

8.91

2-3 goals

1.97

16.62

2.32

4+ goals

3.57

2.01

4.50

Ov 1.5

2.30

5.01

2.74

Un 1.5

2.43

2.10

8.91

Ov 2.5

2.66

3.90

2.71

Un 2.5

2.13

3.34

4.34

Ov 3.5

3.57

2.01

4.50

Un 3.5

2.12

4.59

3.22

Goal-Goal

3.85

2.65

2.76

No Goal

1.89

4.49

4.03

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.55

3.07

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.02

4.49

4.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Juventus vs Spezia at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Spezia for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.27

2.00

-28.7

Draw

6.04

3.91

9.0

Spezia

11.62

4.10

15.8

Over 2.5

1.54

2.23

-20.1

Under 2.5

2.49

1.81

15.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Spezia, Under 2.5 (9 %, 15.8 %, 15.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Feb

Crotone

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Napoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Bologna

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Inter

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Sassuolo

H

3

1

W

O

G


Spezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance as a guest.
Spezia, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Feb

Fiorentina

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Milan

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Sassuolo

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Udinese

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Roma

A

3

4

L

O

G

16 Jan

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

11 Jan

Sampdoria

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Juventus is 0.409 and for the Spezia is -0.133.
The home dynamic for the Juventus is 0.779 and the dynamic as a guest for the Spezia is -0.054.
The offensive ability for the Juventus is 0.597 and for the Spezia is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Juventus is 0.459 and for the Spezia is -0.578.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Spezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

24%

31%

26%

19%

Spezia

46%

21%

26%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 2.58 goals and Spezia to score 0.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.07 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 2.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.41 goals and Spezia to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.17

0-1

3.31

1

5.18

2-3

2.04

2

4.02

4+

4.78

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.75

Un 1.5

3.31

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.43

Ov 3.5

4.78

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.11

2.77

6.04

2-3 goals

1.84

7.54

3.08

4+ goals

2.30

2.55

5.81

Ov 1.5

1.96

4.76

3.58

Un 1.5

2.11

2.77

6.04

Ov 2.5

1.91

5.49

3.38

Un 2.5

2.08

3.17

4.92

Ov 3.5

2.30

2.55

5.81

Un 3.5

1.94

4.55

3.79

Goal-Goal

2.80

2.80

3.49

No Goal

1.67

5.40

4.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.36

4.23

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

1.83

5.40

4.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sassuolo vs Napoli at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Napoli for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 03 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sassuolo

3.69

2.93

7.0

Draw

3.51

3.77

-2.0

Napoli

2.05

2.54

-9.4

Over 2.5

1.67

2.13

-12.9

Under 2.5

2.26

1.89

8.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sassuolo, Under 2.5 (7 %, 8.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sassuolo in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance at home.
Sassuolo, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Spezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Cagliari

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Jan

Parma

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Jan

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Jan

Genoa

H

2

1

W

O

G


Napoli in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Napoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance as a guest.
Napoli, as a guest, had 6 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Benevento

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Atalanta

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Feb

Juventus

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Genoa

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Parma

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Verona

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Fiorentina

H

6

0

W

O

N

10 Jan

Udinese

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Sassuolo is -0.239 and for the Napoli is 0.037.
The home dynamic for the Sassuolo is 0.052 and the dynamic as a guest for the Napoli is 0.635.
The offensive ability for the Sassuolo is 1 and for the Napoli is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sassuolo is -1 and for the Napoli is 0.256.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Napoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sassuolo

32%

32%

23%

12%

Napoli

33%

22%

29%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.13 goals and Napoli to score 1.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the guest team Napoli to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.16 goals and Napoli to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

3.48

1

5.56

2-3

2.09

2

4.13

4+

4.26

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.48

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.21

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

2.68

3.99

2-3 goals

2.81

6.55

2.03

4+ goals

3.73

2.73

2.73

Ov 1.5

3.06

4.48

2.22

Un 1.5

2.66

2.68

3.99

Ov 2.5

3.02

5.48

2.06

Un 2.5

2.86

2.94

3.23

Ov 3.5

3.73

2.73

2.73

Un 3.5

2.75

4.25

2.49

Goal-Goal

3.94

2.85

2.53

No Goal

2.42

5.11

2.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.30

4.42

2.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.46

5.11

2.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Atalanta vs Crotone at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atalanta and Crotone for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 03 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atalanta

1.19

1.92

-32.0

Draw

7.44

3.37

16.2

Crotone

14.31

5.49

11.2

Over 2.5

1.40

2.30

-28.0

Under 2.5

2.88

1.77

21.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Crotone, Under 2.5 (16.2 %, 11.2 %, 21.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atalanta in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance at home.
Atalanta, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Napoli

H

4

2

W

O

G

14 Feb

Cagliari

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Torino

H

3

3

D

O

G

31 Jan

Lazio

H

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Milan

A

3

0

W

O

N

20 Jan

Udinese

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Jan

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N


Crotone in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance as a guest.
Crotone, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Cagliari

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Feb

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Feb

Sassuolo

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Milan

A

0

4

L

O

N

31 Jan

Genoa

H

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

Fiorentina

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Jan

Benevento

H

4

1

W

O

G

10 Jan

Verona

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Atalanta is 0.498 and for the Crotone is -1.
The home dynamic for the Atalanta is 0.442 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crotone is -1.
The offensive ability for the Atalanta is 1 and for the Crotone is -0.626.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Atalanta is 0.176 and for the Crotone is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atalanta and the red line for guest team, Crotone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atalanta

25%

12%

45%

18%

Crotone

55%

9%

30%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atalanta to score 2.94 goals and Crotone to score 0.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.39 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 2.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atalanta to score 1.55 goals and Crotone to score 0.86 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.14

0-1

4.37

1

11.24

2-3

1.91

2

2.97

4+

4.05

3

5.35

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.29

Un 1.5

4.37

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.99

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

1.50