# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lazio vs Torino at 02 March 2021**** Juventus vs Spezia at 02 March 2021**** Sassuolo vs Napoli at 03 March 2021**** Atalanta vs Crotone at 03 March 2021**** Milan vs Udinese at 03 March 2021**** Genoa vs Sampdoria at 03 March 2021**** Fiorentina vs Roma at 03 March 2021**** Cagliari vs Bologna at 03 March 2021**** Benevento vs Verona at 03 March 2021**** Parma vs Inter at 04 March 2021**

###
Lazio vs Torino at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lazio** and **Torino** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lazio |
1.46 |
2.34 |
-25.8 |

Draw |
4.42 |
3.56 |
5.5 |

Torino |
7.69 |
3.45 |
16.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.29 |
-10.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.77 |
6.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Torino, Under 2.5 (5.5 %, 16 %, 6.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lazio** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lazio** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance** at home**.

Lazio,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Bologna |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sampdoria |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Inter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Atalanta |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Sassuolo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Jan |
Roma |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Jan |
Parma |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Torino** in the **last six** matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torino** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance** as a guest**.

Torino,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Feb |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Atalanta |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Fiorentina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Jan |
Benevento |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Spezia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Milan |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Verona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Lazio** is **0.19** and for the **Torino** is **0.2.**

The home dynamic for the **Lazio** is **0.156** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Torino** is **-0.311.**

The offensive ability for the **Lazio** is **0.545** and for the **Torino** is **0.243.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Lazio** is **-0.202** and for the **Torino** is **0.256.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lazio** and the red line for guest team, **Torino. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lazio |
30% |
26% |
30% |
14% |

Torino |
47% |
11% |
33% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lazio** to score **2.02 ** goals and **Torino** to score **0.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and the home team **Lazio ** to win by **1.41** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lazio** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Torino** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.14 |
0-1 |
3.40 |

1 |
6.49 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.70 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
2.68 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
1.59 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
2.10 |
8.91 |

2-3 goals |
1.97 |
16.62 |
2.32 |

4+ goals |
3.57 |
2.01 |
4.50 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.30 |
5.01 |
2.74 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
2.10 |
8.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.66 |
3.90 |
2.71 |

Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
3.34 |
4.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.57 |
2.01 |
4.50 |

Un 3.5 |
2.12 |
4.59 |
3.22 |

Goal-Goal |
3.85 |
2.65 |
2.76 |

No Goal |
1.89 |
4.49 |
4.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.55 |
3.07 |
2.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
4.49 |
4.12 |

####
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###
Juventus vs Spezia at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Juventus** and **Spezia** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **02 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Juventus |
1.27 |
2.00 |
-28.7 |

Draw |
6.04 |
3.91 |
9.0 |

Spezia |
11.62 |
4.10 |
15.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.54 |
2.23 |
-20.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.49 |
1.81 |
15.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Spezia, Under 2.5 (9 %, 15.8 %, 15.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Juventus** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Juventus** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance** at home**.

Juventus,** at home**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Verona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Feb |
Crotone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Napoli |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Roma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Bologna |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Inter |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Sassuolo |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Spezia** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Spezia** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance** as a guest**.

Spezia,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Parma |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Feb |
Fiorentina |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Milan |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Sassuolo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Udinese |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Roma |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Torino |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Sampdoria |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Juventus** is **0.409** and for the **Spezia** is **-0.133.**

The home dynamic for the **Juventus** is **0.779** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Spezia** is **-0.054.**

The offensive ability for the **Juventus** is **0.597** and for the **Spezia** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Juventus** is **0.459** and for the **Spezia** is **-0.578.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Juventus** and the red line for guest team, **Spezia. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Juventus |
24% |
31% |
26% |
19% |

Spezia |
46% |
21% |
26% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **2.58 ** goals and **Spezia** to score **0.5 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.07** goals in the game and the home team **Juventus ** to win by **2.08** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Spezia** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Juventus ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.17 |
0-1 |
3.31 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.78 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.75 |
Un 1.5 |
3.31 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.43 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.78 |

NoG |
1.70 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.11 |
2.77 |
6.04 |

2-3 goals |
1.84 |
7.54 |
3.08 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
2.55 |
5.81 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
4.76 |
3.58 |

Un 1.5 |
2.11 |
2.77 |
6.04 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
5.49 |
3.38 |

Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
3.17 |
4.92 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
2.55 |
5.81 |

Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
4.55 |
3.79 |

Goal-Goal |
2.80 |
2.80 |
3.49 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
5.40 |
4.64 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
4.23 |
2.94 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
5.40 |
4.34 |

####
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###
Sassuolo vs Napoli at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sassuolo** and **Napoli** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **03 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sassuolo |
3.69 |
2.93 |
7.0 |

Draw |
3.51 |
3.77 |
-2.0 |

Napoli |
2.05 |
2.54 |
-9.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
2.13 |
-12.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.26 |
1.89 |
8.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sassuolo, Under 2.5 (7 %, 8.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sassuolo** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Sassuolo** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance** at home**.

Sassuolo,** at home**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Spezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Jan |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Parma |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Jan |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Genoa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Napoli** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Napoli** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance** as a guest**.

Napoli,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Benevento |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Atalanta |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Genoa |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Parma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Verona |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Fiorentina |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Jan |
Udinese |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sassuolo** is **-0.239** and for the **Napoli** is **0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Sassuolo** is **0.052** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Napoli** is **0.635.**

The offensive ability for the **Sassuolo** is **1** and for the **Napoli** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sassuolo** is **-1** and for the **Napoli** is **0.256.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sassuolo** and the red line for guest team, **Napoli. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sassuolo |
32% |
32% |
23% |
12% |

Napoli |
33% |
22% |
29% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sassuolo** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Napoli** to score **1.73 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.86** goals in the game and the guest team **Napoli ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sassuolo** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Napoli** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.35 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
2.21 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
2.68 |
3.99 |

2-3 goals |
2.81 |
6.55 |
2.03 |

4+ goals |
3.73 |
2.73 |
2.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.06 |
4.48 |
2.22 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
2.68 |
3.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.02 |
5.48 |
2.06 |

Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
2.94 |
3.23 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.73 |
2.73 |
2.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.75 |
4.25 |
2.49 |

Goal-Goal |
3.94 |
2.85 |
2.53 |

No Goal |
2.42 |
5.11 |
2.56 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.30 |
4.42 |
2.12 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
5.11 |
2.78 |

####
Go to Top

###
Atalanta vs Crotone at 03 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Atalanta** and **Crotone** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **03 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Atalanta |
1.19 |
1.92 |
-32.0 |

Draw |
7.44 |
3.37 |
16.2 |

Crotone |
14.31 |
5.49 |
11.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.40 |
2.30 |
-28.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.88 |
1.77 |
21.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Crotone, Under 2.5 (16.2 %, 11.2 %, 21.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Atalanta** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atalanta** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance** at home**.

Atalanta,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Napoli |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Torino |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Lazio |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Milan |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
Udinese |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Jan |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Crotone** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crotone** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance** as a guest**.

Crotone,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Cagliari |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Juventus |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Milan |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Fiorentina |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Benevento |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Verona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Atalanta** is **0.498** and for the **Crotone** is **-1.**

The home dynamic for the **Atalanta** is **0.442** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crotone** is **-1.**

The offensive ability for the **Atalanta** is **1** and for the **Crotone** is **-0.626.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Atalanta** is **0.176** and for the **Crotone** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Atalanta** and the red line for guest team, **Crotone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Atalanta |
25% |
12% |
45% |
18% |

Crotone |
55% |
9% |
30% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Atalanta** to score **2.94 ** goals and **Crotone** to score **0.44 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.39** goals in the game and the home team **Atalanta ** to win by **2.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Atalanta** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Crotone** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Atalanta ** to win by **0.69** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.14 |
0-1 |
4.37 |

1 |
11.24 |
2-3 |
1.91 |

2 |
2.97 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
5.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
4.37 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
2.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
1.50 |