2021 03 02 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ascoli vs Pisa at 02 March 2021
Brescia vs Cosenza at 02 March 2021
Chievo vs Pordenone at 02 March 2021
Cittadella vs Pescara at 02 March 2021
Frosinone vs Monza at 02 March 2021
Lecce vs Virtus Entella at 02 March 2021
Reggina vs Empoli at 02 March 2021
Salernitana vs Spal at 02 March 2021


Ascoli vs Pisa at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ascoli and Pisa for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ascoli

2.53

2.62

-1.4

Draw

3.09

3.61

-4.7

Pisa

2.87

2.92

-0.6

Over 2.5

2.17

2.15

0.4

Under 2.5

1.70

1.87

-5.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ascoli in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance at home.
Ascoli, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Salernitana

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Reggiana

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Frosinone

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Lecce

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Brescia

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Chievo

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Cittadella

A

0

1

L

U

N


Pisa in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance as a guest.
Pisa, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Vicenza

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Empoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Feb

Monza

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Salernitana

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

Frosinone

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Reggiana

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Jan

Virtus Entella

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Ascoli is -0.174 and for the Pisa is 0.022.
The home dynamic for the Ascoli is -0.208 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pisa is -0.122.
The offensive ability for the Ascoli is 0.167 and for the Pisa is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ascoli is -1 and for the Pisa is -0.256.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ascoli and the red line for guest team, Pisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ascoli

27%

33%

30%

11%

Pisa

28%

38%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.2 goals and Pisa to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.24 goals and Pisa to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.72

1

5.15

2-3

1.95

2

3.76

4+

4.55

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.72

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

3.59

2.64

2-3 goals

2.27

4.03

3.22

4+ goals

3.49

2.89

2.72

Ov 1.5

2.53

3.61

3.05

Un 1.5

2.92

3.59

2.64

Ov 2.5

2.26

6.13

2.53

Un 2.5

3.06

2.65

3.39

Ov 3.5

3.49

2.89

2.72

Un 3.5

2.46

3.87

2.99

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.61

3.53

No Goal

2.30

6.29

2.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.28

5.29

2.68

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

6.29

2.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Brescia vs Cosenza at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brescia and Cosenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brescia

2.38

2.33

0.9

Draw

3.03

3.76

-6.4

Cosenza

3.19

3.30

-1.0

Over 2.5

2.16

2.09

1.6

Under 2.5

1.72

1.92

-6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brescia, Over 2.5 (0.9 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brescia in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance at home.
Brescia, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Virtus Entella

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Cremonese

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Chievo

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Cittadella

H

3

3

D

O

G

30 Jan

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Jan

Monza

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Pisa

A

0

1

L

U

N


Cosenza in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cosenza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance as a guest.
Cosenza, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Chievo

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Lecce

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Feb

Reggina

H

2

2

D

O

G

09 Feb

Cittadella

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Spal

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Virtus Entella

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Pordenone

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Monza

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Brescia is -0.255 and for the Cosenza is 0.148.
The home dynamic for the Brescia is -0.182 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cosenza is -0.027.
The offensive ability for the Brescia is 1 and for the Cosenza is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brescia is -0.597 and for the Cosenza is -0.525.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brescia and the red line for guest team, Cosenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brescia

25%

29%

33%

13%

Cosenza

32%

35%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.28 goals and Cosenza to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.34 goals and Cosenza to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.82

1

5.49

2-3

1.97

2

3.85

4+

4.33

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.82

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.79

3.28

2.98

2-3 goals

1.93

4.88

3.60

4+ goals

3.12

2.78

3.12

Ov 1.5

2.19

3.95

3.44

Un 1.5

2.79

3.28

2.98

Ov 2.5

2.06

5.77

2.92

Un 2.5

2.62

2.84

3.76

Ov 3.5

3.12

2.78

3.12

Un 3.5

2.16

4.18

3.36

Goal-Goal

2.69

2.73

3.81

No Goal

2.03

6.12

2.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

4.90

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

6.12

3.01


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Chievo vs Pordenone at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chievo and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chievo

2.02

2.39

-7.7

Draw

3.04

3.38

-3.3

Pordenone

4.05

3.51

3.8

Over 2.5

2.38

2.47

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.58

1.68

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pordenone (3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chievo in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance at home.
Chievo, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Cosenza

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Monza

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Brescia

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Feb

Reggiana

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Salernitana

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Pescara

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Jan

Cittadella

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Ascoli

A

0

0

D

U

N


Pordenone in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance as a guest.
Pordenone, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Cittadella

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Spal

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Vicenza

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Lecce

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Cosenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Venezia

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Chievo is -0.377 and for the Pordenone is -0.348.
The home dynamic for the Chievo is 0.442 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pordenone is 0.162.
The offensive ability for the Chievo is -0.288 and for the Pordenone is 0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chievo is -0.631 and for the Pordenone is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chievo and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chievo

24%

41%

20%

14%

Pordenone

33%

41%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chievo to score 1.33 goals and Pordenone to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Chievo to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chievo to score 1.25 goals and Pordenone to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.16

1

4.24

2-3

2.00

2

3.60

4+

5.49

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.16

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.47

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

5.49

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.29

3.95

3.22

2-3 goals

2.53

2.98

3.71

4+ goals

2.22

3.79

3.50

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.16

3.65

Un 1.5

2.29

3.95

3.22

Ov 2.5

1.91

8.44

2.79

Un 2.5

2.88

2.40

4.24

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.79

3.50

Un 3.5

2.43

3.29

3.51

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.34

4.05

No Goal

1.95

6.16

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

7.04

2.70

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

6.16

3.04


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cittadella vs Pescara at 02 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cittadella and Pescara for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 02 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cittadella

1.68

1.87

-6.0

Draw

3.64

3.89

-1.8

Pescara

5.10

4.78

1.3

Over 2.5

2.02

2.22

-4.5

Under 2.5

1.80

1.82

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pescara (1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cittadella in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance at home.
Cittadella, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Monza

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Reggiana

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Pordenone

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cosenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Brescia

A

3

3

D

O

G

31 Jan

Cremonese

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

Chievo

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Venezia

A

0

1

L

U

N


Pescara in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance as a guest.
Pescara, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Lecce

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Frosinone

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Feb

Venezia

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Empoli

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Reggina

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Chievo

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Salernitana

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Cremonese

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Cittadella is -0.109 and for the Pescara is -0.459.
The home dynamic for the Cittadella is 0.714 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pescara is -0.405.
The offensive ability for the Cittadella is 0.116 and for the Pescara is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cittadella is -0.142 and for the Pescara is -0.552.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cittadella and the red line for guest team, Pescara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cittadella

18%

38%

22%

22%

Pescara

42%

34%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cittadella to score 1.67 goals and Pescara to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Cittadella to win by 0.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cittadella to score 1.48 goals and Pescara to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Cittadella to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.36

1

4.50

2-3

2.02

2

3.97

4+

4.83

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.36

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at