2021 03 02 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Zalgiris vs Villeurbanne at 02 March 2021
Zenit vs Alba Berlin at 02 March 2021
Crvena Zvezda vs Bayern Munich at 02 March 2021
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Moscow at 02 March 2021
Panathinaikos vs Barcelona at 02 March 2021
Anadolu Efes vs Valencia at 02 March 2021
Khimki vs Real Madrid at 02 March 2021
Baskonia vs Olympiacos at 03 March 2021
Olimpia Milano vs Fenerbahce at 03 March 2021
Zenit vs Real Madrid at 04 March 2021
Bayern Munich vs Panathinaikos at 04 March 2021
Anadolu Efes vs CSKA Moscow at 04 March 2021
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Valencia at 04 March 2021
Khimki vs Alba Berlin at 05 March 2021
Barcelona vs Baskonia at 05 March 2021
Olympiacos vs Crvena Zvezda at 05 March 2021
Zalgiris vs Olimpia Milano at 05 March 2021
Villeurbanne vs Fenerbahce at 05 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Zalgiris vs Villeurbanne at 02 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zalgiris and Villeurbanne for EuroLeague, which will take place on 02 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zalgiris

1.57

1.38

Villeurbanne

2.45

3.61

Zalgiris HC

-3.5

-6.50

Villeurbanne HC

+3.5

6.50

Point Line

154.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 25

A

Real Madrid

L

58

70

14

12

L 1

60

69

Feb 23

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

75

62

14

11

W 1

75

67

Feb 18

A

FC Barcelona

L

62

86

13

11

L 2

66

84

Jan 29

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

68

81

13

10

L 1

69

80

Jan 27

A

Valencia Basket

W

79

78

13

9

W 2

76

75

Jan 22

H

Olympiacos

W

81

79

12

9

W 1

80

80

Jan 15

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

65

77

11

9

L 2

68

79

Jan 13

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

83

11

8

L 1

73

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 26

A

FC Barcelona

W

76

69

12

14

W 6

81

68

Feb 19

H

Bayern Munich

W

87

79

11

14

W 5

89

80

Feb 5

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

78

69

10

14

W 4

80

67

Jan 29

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

78

9

14

W 3

82

84

Jan 27

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

83

77

8

14

W 2

85

76

Jan 21

H

Valencia Basket

W

90

77

7

14

W 1

87

74

Jan 19

H

Olympiacos

L

93

101

6

14

L 1

91

102

Jan 15

A

Olympiacos

W

69

63

6

13

W 1

68

63

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Villeurbanne.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Villeurbanne and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zalgiris (in the first graph) and by Villeurbanne in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zalgiris will expected to score 78 points and the Villeurbanne 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zalgiris

Villeurbanne

FG%

0.57

0.55

ASS

18.40

16.20

DRB

21.20

21.10

AST-TO

1.47

1.16

TRB

29.00

28.30

FTM

12.40

13.00

BL

1.10

3.20

FTA

14.50

17.00

PF-Fewer

19.20

21.90

ST

6.40

7.00

TO-Fewer

12.50

14.00

Ftper

0.86

0.76

ORBper

0.37

0.35

ORB

7.90

7.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zenit vs Alba Berlin at 02 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit and Alba Berlin for EuroLeague, which will take place on 02 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zenit

1.28

2.73

Alba Berlin

4

1.58

Zenit HC

-7.5

4.50

Alba Berlin HC

+7.5

-4.50

Point Line

156.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 25

H

Valencia Basket

L

62

91

15

10

L 1

60

87

Feb 22

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

79

70

15

9

W 2

80

68

Feb 19

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

76

75

14

9

W 1

76

81

Feb 5

A

Fenerbahce

L

84

92

13

9

L 3

84

93

Jan 28

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

76

82

13

8

L 2

77

80

Jan 26

A

FC Barcelona

L

81

85

13

7

L 1

87

83

Jan 21

H

Anadolu Efes

W

85

78

13

6

W 2

88

76

Jan 15

H

Zalgiris

W

77

65

12

6

W 1

79

66

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 26

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

74

65

9

17

W 1

71

64

Feb 19

A

Fenerbahce

L

84

89

8

17

L 4

84

90

Feb 5

A

Bayern Munich

L

95

101

8

16

L 3

97

102

Jan 29

H

Real Madrid

L

63

72

8

15

L 2

65

71

Jan 27

H

CSKA Moscow

L

68

71

8

14

L 1

68

67

Jan 22

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

84

77

8

13

W 1

86

76

Jan 14

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

70

84

7

13

L 3

71

81

Jan 12

A

Anadolu Efes

L

76

84

7

12

L 2

79

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit (in the first graph) and by Alba Berlin in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zenit will expected to score 80 points and the Alba Berlin 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zenit

Alba Berlin

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

15.40

19.80

DRB

19.00

19.70

AST-TO

1.35

1.42

TRB

26.40

28.10

FTM

13.90

10.30

BL

2.20

2.00

FTA

17.20

12.30

PF-Fewer

21.10

18.70

ST

6.40

6.60

TO-Fewer

11.40

13.90

Ftper

0.81

0.84

ORBper

0.39

0.42

ORB

7.40

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Crvena Zvezda vs Bayern Munich at 02 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crvena Zvezda and Bayern Munich for EuroLeague, which will take place on 02 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Crvena Zvezda

3

2.96

Bayern Munich

1.42

1.51

Crvena Zvezda HC

+5.5

5.00

Bayern Munich HC

-5.5

-5.00

Point Line

152.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crvena Zvezda are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 26

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

67

87

7

19

L 6

68

86

Feb 23

A

Zalgiris

L

62

75

7

18

L 5

64

77

Feb 19

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

75

76

7

17

L 4

79

78

Jan 29

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

78

81

7

16

L 3

78

83

Jan 26

A

Anadolu Efes

L

72

86

7

15

L 2

75

84

Jan 22

H

FC Barcelona

L

60

72

7

14

L 1

64

70

Jan 18

A

Real Madrid

W

79

77

7

13

W 1

82

76

Jan 15

A

Valencia Basket

L

71

91

6

13

L 2

69

87

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munich are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 25

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

72

70

16

10

W 1

72

70

Feb 19

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

79

87

15

10

L 1

79

89

Feb 5

H

Alba Berlin

W

101

95

15

9

W 3

97

98

Jan 29

A

CSKA Moscow

W

69

66

14

9

W 2

69

62

Jan 26

A

BC Khimki

W

95

93

13

9

W 1

81

94

Jan 21

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

51

75

12

9

L 2

52

73

Jan 15

H

Real Madrid

L

76

81

12

8

L 1

78

79

Jan 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

82

80

12

7

W 1

86

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Crvena Zvezda and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayern Munich.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayern Munich and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Crvena Zvezda.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Crvena Zvezda (in the first graph) and by Bayern Munich in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Crvena Zvezda will expected to score 76 points and the Bayern Munich 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Crvena Zvezda

Bayern Munich

FG%

0.51

0.53

ASS

14.30

16.70

DRB

19.10

21.70

AST-TO

1.17

1.25

TRB

27.50

28.80

FTM

14.00

15.80

BL

2.00

2.00

FTA

17.00

19.50

PF-Fewer

21.60

20.50

ST

6.70

6.20

TO-Fewer

12.20

13.40

Ftper

0.82

0.81

ORBper

0.44

0.33

ORB

8.40

7.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Moscow at 02 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and CSKA Moscow for EuroLeague, which will take place on 02 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.45

2.62

CSKA Moscow

1.57

1.62

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

+3.5

4.00

CSKA Moscow HC

-3.5

-4.00

Point Line

159.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 25

A

Bayern Munich

L

70

72

10

14

L 3

71

72

Feb 18

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

68

87

10

13

L 2

69

84

Jan 26

A

Fenerbahce

L

75

82

10

12

L 1

75

82

Jan 21

H

Real Madrid

W

86

84

10

11

W 2

89

82

Jan 14

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

91

82

9

11

W 1

93

81

Jan 12

H

Olympiacos

L

87

89

8

11

L 1

85

90

Jan 7

A

Alba Berlin

W

85

73

8

10

W 1

82

75

Dec 29

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

78

7

10

L 1

76

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 25

A

Olympiacos

W

75

74

17

8

W 1

74

74

Feb 4

A

Valencia Basket

L

103

105

16

8

L 2

100

101

Jan 29

H

Bayern Munich

L

66

69

16

7

L 1

67

69

Jan 27

A

Alba Berlin

W

71

68

16

6

W 1

68

70

Jan 22

H

Fenerbahce

L

83

89

15

6

L 2

83

90

Jan 15

H

FC Barcelona

L

75

88

15

5

L 1

80

86

Jan 13

H

Zalgiris

W

83

73

15

4

W 1

85

74

Jan 7

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

93

95

14

4

L 1

95

94

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by CSKA Moscow in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 79 points and the CSKA Moscow 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Maccabi Tel Aviv

CSKA Moscow

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

15.90

16.90

DRB

22.40

20.80

AST-TO

1.22

1.36

TRB

30.80

29.30

FTM

12.30

13.80

BL

2.30

2.70

FTA

16.00

16.70

PF-Fewer

19.40

22.50

ST

7.10

6.20

TO-Fewer

13.00

12.40

Ftper

0.77

0.82

ORBper

0.37

0.41

ORB

8.30

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Panathinaikos vs Barcelona at 02 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Barcelona for EuroLeague, which will take place on 02 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

5.05

1.89

Barcelona

1.24

2.12

Panathinaikos HC

+8.5

-1.50

Barcelona HC

-8.5

1.50

Point Line

156.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 26

A

Alba Berlin

L

65

74

9

15

L 1

62

76

Feb 5

A

Olympiacos

W

88

77

9

14

W 2

86

78

Jan 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

91

72

8

14

W 1

88

69

Jan 27

A

Real Madrid

L

66

76

7

14

L 1

68

74

Jan 21