2021 03 05 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Schalke 04 vs Mainz at 05 March 2021
Hertha vs Augsburg at 06 March 2021
Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg at 06 March 2021
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Leverkusen at 06 March 2021
Freiburg vs RB Leipzig at 06 March 2021
Bayern Munich vs Dortmund at 06 March 2021
Ein Frankfurt vs Stuttgart at 06 March 2021
Bielefeld vs Union Berlin at 07 March 2021
FC Koln vs Werder Bremen at 07 March 2021


Schalke 04 vs Mainz at 05 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Schalke 04 and Mainz for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 05 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Schalke 04

3.53

3.07

4.2

Draw

3.72

3.89

-1.2

Mainz

2.09

2.40

-6.2

Over 2.5

1.96

1.88

2.2

Under 2.5

1.90

2.14

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Schalke 04, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Schalke 04 in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance at home.
Schalke 04, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 13.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Stuttgart

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Feb

Dortmund

H

0

4

L

O

N

13 Feb

Union Berlin

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

30 Jan

Werder Bremen

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Bayern Munich

H

0

4

L

O

N

20 Jan

FC Koln

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

3

L

O

G


Mainz in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance as a guest.
Mainz, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Augsburg

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

M’gladbach

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Leverkusen

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Union Berlin

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Jan

Stuttgart

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

RB Leipzig

H

3

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Wolfsburg

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Dortmund

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Schalke 04 is -0.681 and for the Mainz is 0.056.
The home dynamic for the Schalke 04 is -0.817 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mainz is -0.486.
The offensive ability for the Schalke 04 is -0.609 and for the Mainz is 0.202.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Schalke 04 is -0.586 and for the Mainz is -0.681.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Schalke 04 and the red line for guest team, Mainz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Schalke 04

29%

36%

19%

16%

Mainz

26%

28%

23%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Schalke 04 to score 1.02 goals and Mainz to score 1.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Mainz to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Schalke 04 to score 1.23 goals and Mainz to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

4.00

1

5.75

2-3

2.17

2

4.61

4+

3.46

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.00

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

27.03

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.46

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.29

3.12

2-3 goals

3.11

4.66

2.15

4+ goals

3.44

3.52

2.35

Ov 1.5

3.23

4.14

2.23

Un 1.5

2.66

3.29

3.12

Ov 2.5

2.94

6.50

1.97

Un 2.5

3.22

2.67

3.18

Ov 3.5

3.44

3.52

2.35

Un 3.5

2.94

4.06

2.42

Goal-Goal

3.82

2.90

2.54

No Goal

2.52

6.26

2.26

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.10

5.18

2.06

NG+Un 2.5

2.54

6.26

2.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Hertha vs Augsburg at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hertha and Augsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hertha

2.02

3.01

-16.3

Draw

3.40

3.88

-3.6

Augsburg

3.95

2.44

15.7

Over 2.5

2.07

1.90

4.3

Under 2.5

1.81

2.11

-7.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Augsburg, Over 2.5 (15.7 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hertha in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance at home.
Hertha, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Wolfsburg

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Stuttgart

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Bayern Munich

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Werder Bremen

H

1

4

L

O

G

19 Jan

Hoffenheim

H

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

FC Koln

A

0

0

D

U

N


Augsburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Augsburg in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance as a guest.
Augsburg, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Mainz

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Leverkusen

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Feb

RB Leipzig

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Wolfsburg

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Dortmund

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Union Berlin

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Jan

Bayern Munich

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Werder Bremen

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Hertha is -0.83 and for the Augsburg is -0.25.
The home dynamic for the Hertha is -0.559 and the dynamic as a guest for the Augsburg is -0.063.
The offensive ability for the Hertha is -0.336 and for the Augsburg is 0.631.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Hertha is -1 and for the Augsburg is -0.607.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hertha and the red line for guest team, Augsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hertha

28%

35%

22%

15%

Augsburg

27%

28%

23%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.48 goals and Augsburg to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Hertha to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.23 goals and Augsburg to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.98

1

5.71

2-3

2.14

2

4.48

4+

3.56

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.95

Un 1.5

3.98

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.90

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

2.11

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.56

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

3.30

3.18

2-3 goals

2.92

4.72

2.25

4+ goals

3.70

3.43

2.28

Ov 1.5

3.17

4.13

2.26

Un 1.5

2.61

3.30

3.18

Ov 2.5

2.97

6.40

1.97

Un 2.5

3.06

2.71

3.29

Ov 3.5

3.70

3.43

2.28

Un 3.5

2.80

4.10

2.50

Goal-Goal

3.82

2.89

2.55

No Goal

2.44

6.26

2.32

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.09

5.17

2.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.42

6.26

2.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hoffenheim

2.98

3.25

-2.8

Draw

3.45

3.89

-3.3

Wolfsburg

2.38

2.30

1.5

Over 2.5

1.65

1.87

-7.1

Under 2.5

2.28

2.15

2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wolfsburg, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hoffenheim in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance at home.
Hoffenheim, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Werder Bremen

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Dortmund

A

2

2

D

O

G

07 Feb

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Bayern Munich

A

1

4

L

O

G

24 Jan

FC Koln

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Jan

Hertha

A

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Bielefeld

H

0

0

D

U

N


Wolfsburg in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Wolfsburg in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance as a guest.
Wolfsburg, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Hertha

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Bielefeld

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

M’gladbach

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Augsburg

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Freiburg

H

3

0

W

O

N

23 Jan

Leverkusen

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Mainz

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

RB Leipzig

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Hoffenheim is 0.015 and for the Wolfsburg is 0.815.
The home dynamic for the Hoffenheim is -0.28 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wolfsburg is 0.108.
The offensive ability for the Hoffenheim is 1 and for the Wolfsburg is 0.597.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Hoffenheim is -0.233 and for the Wolfsburg is 1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hoffenheim and the red line for guest team, Wolfsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hoffenheim

29%

36%

20%

15%

Wolfsburg

24%

29%

23%

23%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.33 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.89 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.2 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.45 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.08

1

5.78

2-3

2.14

2

4.52

4+

3.47

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.08

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.87

6+

28.57

Un 2.5

2.15

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.47

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.78

3.40

2.88

2-3 goals

3.29

4.49

2.11

4+ goals

3.65

3.56

2.25

Ov 1.5

3.42

4.08

2.16

Un 1.5

2.78

3.40

2.88

Ov 2.5

3.09

6.59

1.91

Un 2.5

3.43

2.65

3.03

Ov 3.5

3.65

3.56

2.25

Un 3.5

3.10

4.05

2.33

Goal-Goal

3.92

2.88

2.51

No Goal

2.70

6.49

2.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.15

5.30

2.02

NG+Un 2.5

2.66

6.49

2.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

M’gladbach vs Leverkusen at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between M’gladbach and Leverkusen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

M’gladbach

2.46

2.47

-0.2

Draw

3.68

3.85

-1.2

Leverkusen

2.87

2.98

-1.3

Over 2.5

1.71

1.83

-3.8

Under 2.5

2.23

2.20

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

M’gladbach in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance at home.
M’gladbach, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

RB Leipzig

A

2

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Wolfsburg

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

FC Koln

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Dortmund

H

4

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Werder Bremen

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Stuttgart

A

2

2

D

O

G


Leverkusen in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance as a guest.
Leverkusen, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Freiburg

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Augsburg

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Mainz

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Stuttgart

H

5

2

W

O

G

30 Jan

RB Leipzig

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Wolfsburg

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Jan

Dortmund

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Jan

Union Berlin

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the M’gladbach is -0.407 and for the Leverkusen is -0.435.
The home dynamic for the M’gladbach is 0.28 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leverkusen is 0.423.
The offensive ability for the M’gladbach is 0.573 and for the Leverkusen is 0.339.
Finally, the defensive ability for the M’gladbach is -0.586 and for the Leverkusen is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, M’gladbach and the red line for guest team, Leverkusen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

M’gladbach

24%

34%

18%

24%

Leverkusen

28%

33%

22%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.49 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.42 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

4.17

1

5.78

2-3

2.18

2

4.65

4+

3.31

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.65

Un 1.5

4.17

5

11.90

Ov 2.5

1.83

6+

24.39

Un 2.5

2.20

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.