# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Schalke 04 vs Mainz at 05 March 2021**** Hertha vs Augsburg at 06 March 2021**** Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg at 06 March 2021**

<a href=‘#M’gladbach’>** M’gladbach vs Leverkusen at 06 March 2021**** Freiburg vs RB Leipzig at 06 March 2021**** Bayern Munich vs Dortmund at 06 March 2021**** Ein Frankfurt vs Stuttgart at 06 March 2021**** Bielefeld vs Union Berlin at 07 March 2021**** FC Koln vs Werder Bremen at 07 March 2021**

###
Schalke 04 vs Mainz at 05 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Schalke 04** and **Mainz** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **05 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Schalke 04 |
3.53 |
3.07 |
4.2 |

Draw |
3.72 |
3.89 |
-1.2 |

Mainz |
2.09 |
2.40 |
-6.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.88 |
2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.14 |
-5.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Schalke 04, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Schalke 04** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Schalke 04** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance** at home**.

Schalke 04,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 13.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Stuttgart |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Dortmund |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Mainz** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mainz** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance** as a guest**.

Mainz,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Augsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.681** and for the **Mainz** is **0.056.**

The home dynamic for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.817** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Mainz** is **-0.486.**

The offensive ability for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.609** and for the **Mainz** is **0.202.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.586** and for the **Mainz** is **-0.681.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Schalke 04** and the red line for guest team, **Mainz. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Schalke 04 |
29% |
36% |
19% |
16% |

Mainz |
26% |
28% |
23% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Schalke 04** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **1.49 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the guest team **Mainz ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Schalke 04** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
4.61 |
4+ |
3.46 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
27.03 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.46 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.29 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
3.11 |
4.66 |
2.15 |

4+ goals |
3.44 |
3.52 |
2.35 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.23 |
4.14 |
2.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.29 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.94 |
6.50 |
1.97 |

Un 2.5 |
3.22 |
2.67 |
3.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.44 |
3.52 |
2.35 |

Un 3.5 |
2.94 |
4.06 |
2.42 |

Goal-Goal |
3.82 |
2.90 |
2.54 |

No Goal |
2.52 |
6.26 |
2.26 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.10 |
5.18 |
2.06 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
6.26 |
2.50 |

####
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###
Hertha vs Augsburg at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hertha** and **Augsburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hertha |
2.02 |
3.01 |
-16.3 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.88 |
-3.6 |

Augsburg |
3.95 |
2.44 |
15.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.90 |
4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
2.11 |
-7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Augsburg, Over 2.5 (15.7 %, 4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** at home**.

Hertha,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Stuttgart |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Feb |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Augsburg** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Augsburg** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Augsburg,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Leverkusen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Feb |
RB Leipzig |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Hertha** is **-0.83** and for the **Augsburg** is **-0.25.**

The home dynamic for the **Hertha** is **-0.559** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Augsburg** is **-0.063.**

The offensive ability for the **Hertha** is **-0.336** and for the **Augsburg** is **0.631.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Hertha** is **-1** and for the **Augsburg** is **-0.607.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hertha** and the red line for guest team, **Augsburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hertha |
28% |
35% |
22% |
15% |

Augsburg |
27% |
28% |
23% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Augsburg** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Hertha ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Augsburg** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
3.56 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.56 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.61 |
3.30 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
2.92 |
4.72 |
2.25 |

4+ goals |
3.70 |
3.43 |
2.28 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.17 |
4.13 |
2.26 |

Un 1.5 |
2.61 |
3.30 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.97 |
6.40 |
1.97 |

Un 2.5 |
3.06 |
2.71 |
3.29 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.70 |
3.43 |
2.28 |

Un 3.5 |
2.80 |
4.10 |
2.50 |

Goal-Goal |
3.82 |
2.89 |
2.55 |

No Goal |
2.44 |
6.26 |
2.32 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.09 |
5.17 |
2.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
6.26 |
2.60 |

####
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###
Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hoffenheim** and **Wolfsburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hoffenheim |
2.98 |
3.25 |
-2.8 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.89 |
-3.3 |

Wolfsburg |
2.38 |
2.30 |
1.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.87 |
-7.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.15 |
2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wolfsburg, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 2.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hoffenheim** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hoffenheim** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance** at home**.

Hoffenheim,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Feb |
Werder Bremen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Dortmund |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
FC Koln |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
Hertha |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Wolfsburg** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Wolfsburg** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolfsburg,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Hertha |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Bielefeld |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
M’gladbach |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Freiburg |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Hoffenheim** is **0.015** and for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.815.**

The home dynamic for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.28** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.108.**

The offensive ability for the **Hoffenheim** is **1** and for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.597.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.233** and for the **Wolfsburg** is **1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hoffenheim** and the red line for guest team, **Wolfsburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hoffenheim |
29% |
36% |
20% |
15% |

Wolfsburg |
24% |
29% |
23% |
23% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hoffenheim** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Wolfsburg** to score **1.56 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.89** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hoffenheim** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Wolfsburg** to score **1.45 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.08 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.52 |
4+ |
3.47 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.08 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.47 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.78 |
3.40 |
2.88 |

2-3 goals |
3.29 |
4.49 |
2.11 |

4+ goals |
3.65 |
3.56 |
2.25 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.42 |
4.08 |
2.16 |

Un 1.5 |
2.78 |
3.40 |
2.88 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.09 |
6.59 |
1.91 |

Un 2.5 |
3.43 |
2.65 |
3.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |
3.56 |
2.25 |

Un 3.5 |
3.10 |
4.05 |
2.33 |

Goal-Goal |
3.92 |
2.88 |
2.51 |

No Goal |
2.70 |
6.49 |
2.10 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.15 |
5.30 |
2.02 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
6.49 |
2.35 |

####
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<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

###
M’gladbach vs Leverkusen at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **M’gladbach** and **Leverkusen** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

M’gladbach |
2.46 |
2.47 |
-0.2 |

Draw |
3.68 |
3.85 |
-1.2 |

Leverkusen |
2.87 |
2.98 |
-1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.83 |
-3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.23 |
2.20 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**M’gladbach** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **M’gladbach** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance** at home**.

M’gladbach,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
RB Leipzig |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Leverkusen** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leverkusen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance** as a guest**.

Leverkusen,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Mainz |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Stuttgart |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **M’gladbach** is **-0.407** and for the **Leverkusen** is **-0.435.**

The home dynamic for the **M’gladbach** is **0.28** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leverkusen** is **0.423.**

The offensive ability for the **M’gladbach** is **0.573** and for the **Leverkusen** is **0.339.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **M’gladbach** is **-0.586** and for the **Leverkusen** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **M’gladbach** and the red line for guest team, **Leverkusen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

M’gladbach |
24% |
34% |
18% |
24% |

Leverkusen |
28% |
33% |
22% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Leverkusen** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.82** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Leverkusen** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.18 |

2 |
4.65 |
4+ |
3.31 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
24.39 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |

Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.31 |

NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.