2021 03 05 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Huddersfield vs Cardiff at 05 March 2021
Stoke vs Wycombe at 06 March 2021
Brentford vs Rotherham at 06 March 2021
Watford vs Nott’m Forest at 06 March 2021
Swansea vs Middlesbrough at 06 March 2021
Reading vs Sheffield Weds at 06 March 2021
Preston vs Bournemouth at 06 March 2021
Norwich vs Luton at 06 March 2021
Millwall vs Blackburn at 06 March 2021
Bristol City vs QPR at 06 March 2021
Barnsley vs Birmingham at 06 March 2021
Coventry vs Derby at 06 March 2021


Huddersfield vs Cardiff at 05 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Huddersfield and Cardiff for Championship (England), which will take place on 05 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huddersfield

3.65

2.83

7.9

Draw

3.37

3.73

-2.9

Cardiff

2.08

2.64

-10.2

Over 2.5

2.14

2.13

0.2

Under 2.5

1.73

1.89

-4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (7.9 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance at home.
Huddersfield, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Birmingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Preston

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Feb

Derby

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Swansea

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Feb

Middlesbrough

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Wycombe

H

2

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Stoke

H

1

1

D

U

G


Cardiff in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cardiff in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance as a guest.
Cardiff, as a guest, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Derby

H

4

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Middlesbrough

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Feb

Bournemouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Preston

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Feb

Luton

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Coventry

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Rotherham

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Bristol City

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Huddersfield is -0.481 and for the Cardiff is 0.798.
The home dynamic for the Huddersfield is 0.097 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cardiff is 0.261.
The offensive ability for the Huddersfield is 0.118 and for the Cardiff is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Huddersfield is -1 and for the Cardiff is 0.015.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huddersfield and the red line for guest team, Cardiff.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huddersfield

32%

32%

21%

15%

Cardiff

30%

31%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 0.94 goals and Cardiff to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the guest team Cardiff to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.2 goals and Cardiff to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.44

1

5.10

2-3

2.11

2

4.18

4+

4.27

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.44

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.27

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.03

3.06

2.91

2-3 goals

2.77

4.68

2.35

4+ goals

2.75

3.25

3.04

Ov 1.5

2.76

4.09

2.54

Un 1.5

3.03

3.06

2.91

Ov 2.5

2.40

6.50

2.33

Un 2.5

3.38

2.70

2.99

Ov 3.5

2.75

3.25

3.04

Un 3.5

2.86

3.90

2.54

Goal-Goal

3.19

2.76

3.08

No Goal

2.57

5.47

2.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.51

5.24

2.43

NG+Un 2.5

2.73

5.47

2.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stoke vs Wycombe at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stoke and Wycombe for Championship (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stoke

1.61

1.79

-6.2

Draw

3.87

4.02

-1.0

Wycombe

5.66

5.26

1.3

Over 2.5

2.07

2.01

1.4

Under 2.5

1.76

1.99

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stoke in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stoke in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance at home.
Stoke, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Swansea

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Brentford

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Feb

Barnsley

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Luton

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Norwich

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Feb

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Huddersfield

A

1

1

D

U

G


Wycombe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance as a guest.
Wycombe, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 18.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Norwich

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Reading

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Millwall

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Feb

Derby

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Huddersfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

09 Feb

Sheffield Weds

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Stoke is -0.385 and for the Wycombe is -0.331.
The home dynamic for the Stoke is -0.054 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wycombe is -0.288.
The offensive ability for the Stoke is 0.573 and for the Wycombe is -0.262.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stoke is -0.269 and for the Wycombe is -0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stoke and the red line for guest team, Wycombe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stoke

16%

31%

32%

21%

Wycombe

36%

43%

14%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.69 goals and Wycombe to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.59 goals and Wycombe to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.86

0-1

4.29

1

5.65

2-3

1.85

2

3.69

4+

4.41

3

3.72

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.29

Un 1.5

4.29

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.12

4.16

3.48

2-3 goals

1.64

4.09

6.92

4+ goals

1.89

3.66

5.04

Ov 1.5

1.70

3.95

6.24

Un 1.5

2.12

4.16

3.48

Ov 2.5

1.49

8.00

4.96

Un 2.5

2.23

2.68

5.60

Ov 3.5

1.89

3.66

5.04

Un 3.5

1.76

4.11

5.33

Goal-Goal

2.09

2.79

6.09

No Goal

1.52

8.18

4.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

6.61

4.61

NG+Un 2.5

1.65

8.18

4.13


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Brentford vs Rotherham at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brentford and Rotherham for Championship (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brentford

1.45

1.93

-17.2

Draw

4.37

3.83

3.2

Rotherham

7.25

4.55

8.2

Over 2.5

1.84

1.98

-3.8

Under 2.5

1.99

2.02

-0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rotherham (3.2 %, 8.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brentford in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance at home.
Brentford, at home, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 68.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Stoke

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Coventry

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Feb

QPR

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Barnsley

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Feb

Reading

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Middlesbrough

A

4

1

W

O

G


Rotherham in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance as a guest.
Rotherham, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Reading

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Feb

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Cardiff

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Preston

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Derby

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Brentford is -0.281 and for the Rotherham is -0.75.
The home dynamic for the Brentford is 0.032 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rotherham is -0.387.
The offensive ability for the Brentford is -0.209 and for the Rotherham is -0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brentford is -0.586 and for the Rotherham is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brentford and the red line for guest team, Rotherham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brentford

16%

33%

31%

20%

Rotherham

33%

41%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.99 goals and Rotherham to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 1.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.54 goals and Rotherham to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.52

0-1

4.37

1

5.71

2-3

1.88

2

3.75

4+

4.17

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.37

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.78

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

2.28

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.10

4.24

3.47

2-3 goals

1.83

3.95

5.03

4+ goals

2.02

3.29

5.00

Ov 1.5

1.88

3.72

5.02

Un 1.5

2.10

4.24

3.47

Ov 2.5

1.63

6.93

4.11

Un 2.5

2.36

2.62

5.11

Ov 3.5

2.02

3.29

5.00

Un 3.5

1.90

4.03

4.43

Goal-Goal

2.31

2.71

5.07

No Goal

1.59

8.13

4.03

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.75

5.86

3.86

NG+Un 2.5

1.72

8.13

3.72


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Watford vs Nott’m Forest at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Nott’m Forest for Championship (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

1.93

1.75

5.3

Draw

3.40

4.17

-5.4

Nott’m Forest

4.25

5.32

-4.7

Over 2.5

2.39

2.04

7.2

Under 2.5

1.61

1.96

-11.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Watford, Over 2.5 (5.3 %, 7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 13 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 80.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Wycombe

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Feb

Blackburn

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Feb

Derby

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Feb

Preston

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Bristol City

H

6

0

W

O

N

06 Feb

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

QPR

H

1

2

L

O

G


Nott’m Forest in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nott’m Forest in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance as a guest.
Nott’m Forest, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Bournemouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Wycombe

A

3

0

W

O

N

02 Feb

Coventry

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Watford is 0.63 and for the Nott’m Forest is -0.105.
The home dynamic for the Watford is 0.387 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nott’m Forest is -0.396.
The offensive ability for the Watford is 0.545 and for the Nott’m Forest is -0.116.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Watford is 0.145 and for the Nott’m Forest is -0.059.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Nott’m Forest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

18%

29%

29%

24%

Nott’m Forest

40%

40%

12%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.38 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.6 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.91

1

5.41

2-3

1.94

2

3.95

4+

4.39

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.91

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.