# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Huddersfield vs Cardiff at 05 March 2021**** Stoke vs Wycombe at 06 March 2021**** Brentford vs Rotherham at 06 March 2021**** Watford vs Nott’m Forest at 06 March 2021**** Swansea vs Middlesbrough at 06 March 2021**** Reading vs Sheffield Weds at 06 March 2021**** Preston vs Bournemouth at 06 March 2021**** Norwich vs Luton at 06 March 2021**** Millwall vs Blackburn at 06 March 2021**** Bristol City vs QPR at 06 March 2021**** Barnsley vs Birmingham at 06 March 2021**** Coventry vs Derby at 06 March 2021**

###
Huddersfield vs Cardiff at 05 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Huddersfield** and **Cardiff** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **05 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Huddersfield |
3.65 |
2.83 |
7.9 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.73 |
-2.9 |

Cardiff |
2.08 |
2.64 |
-10.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.13 |
0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.89 |
-4.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (7.9 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** at home**.

Huddersfield,** at home**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Preston |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Feb |
Derby |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Swansea |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Stoke |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Cardiff** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cardiff** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance** as a guest**.

Cardiff,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Derby |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Feb |
Bournemouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Preston |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Luton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Bristol City |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.481** and for the **Cardiff** is **0.798.**

The home dynamic for the **Huddersfield** is **0.097** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cardiff** is **0.261.**

The offensive ability for the **Huddersfield** is **0.118** and for the **Cardiff** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Huddersfield** is **-1** and for the **Cardiff** is **0.015.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Huddersfield** and the red line for guest team, **Cardiff. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Huddersfield |
32% |
32% |
21% |
15% |

Cardiff |
30% |
31% |
24% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Huddersfield** to score **0.94 ** goals and **Cardiff** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the guest team **Cardiff ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Huddersfield** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Cardiff** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.44 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.27 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.44 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.03 |
3.06 |
2.91 |

2-3 goals |
2.77 |
4.68 |
2.35 |

4+ goals |
2.75 |
3.25 |
3.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.76 |
4.09 |
2.54 |

Un 1.5 |
3.03 |
3.06 |
2.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |
6.50 |
2.33 |

Un 2.5 |
3.38 |
2.70 |
2.99 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.75 |
3.25 |
3.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.86 |
3.90 |
2.54 |

Goal-Goal |
3.19 |
2.76 |
3.08 |

No Goal |
2.57 |
5.47 |
2.33 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.51 |
5.24 |
2.43 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
5.47 |
2.42 |

####
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###
Stoke vs Wycombe at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stoke** and **Wycombe** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stoke |
1.61 |
1.79 |
-6.2 |

Draw |
3.87 |
4.02 |
-1.0 |

Wycombe |
5.66 |
5.26 |
1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.01 |
1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.99 |
-6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wycombe, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stoke** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stoke** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance** at home**.

Stoke,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Barnsley |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Luton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** as a guest**.

Wycombe,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 18.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Watford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Norwich |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Reading |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Derby |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Huddersfield |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Stoke** is **-0.385** and for the **Wycombe** is **-0.331.**

The home dynamic for the **Stoke** is **-0.054** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wycombe** is **-0.288.**

The offensive ability for the **Stoke** is **0.573** and for the **Wycombe** is **-0.262.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stoke** is **-0.269** and for the **Wycombe** is **-0.333.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stoke** and the red line for guest team, **Wycombe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stoke |
16% |
31% |
32% |
21% |

Wycombe |
36% |
43% |
14% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.69 ** goals and **Wycombe** to score **0.69 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Stoke ** to win by **1** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Wycombe** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Stoke ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.29 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
1.85 |

2 |
3.69 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
3.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
4.29 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.12 |
4.16 |
3.48 |

2-3 goals |
1.64 |
4.09 |
6.92 |

4+ goals |
1.89 |
3.66 |
5.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.70 |
3.95 |
6.24 |

Un 1.5 |
2.12 |
4.16 |
3.48 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.49 |
8.00 |
4.96 |

Un 2.5 |
2.23 |
2.68 |
5.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
3.66 |
5.04 |

Un 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.11 |
5.33 |

Goal-Goal |
2.09 |
2.79 |
6.09 |

No Goal |
1.52 |
8.18 |
4.53 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
6.61 |
4.61 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.65 |
8.18 |
4.13 |

####
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###
Brentford vs Rotherham at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brentford** and **Rotherham** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brentford |
1.45 |
1.93 |
-17.2 |

Draw |
4.37 |
3.83 |
3.2 |

Rotherham |
7.25 |
4.55 |
8.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.98 |
-3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.02 |
-0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Rotherham (3.2 %, 8.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brentford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brentford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance** at home**.

Brentford,** at home**, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 68.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Stoke |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
QPR |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Feb |
Reading |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Rotherham** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rotherham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance** as a guest**.

Rotherham,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Reading |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Preston |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Derby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Brentford** is **-0.281** and for the **Rotherham** is **-0.75.**

The home dynamic for the **Brentford** is **0.032** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Rotherham** is **-0.387.**

The offensive ability for the **Brentford** is **-0.209** and for the **Rotherham** is **-0.545.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Brentford** is **-0.586** and for the **Rotherham** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brentford** and the red line for guest team, **Rotherham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brentford |
16% |
33% |
31% |
20% |

Rotherham |
33% |
41% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brentford** to score **1.99 ** goals and **Rotherham** to score **0.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the home team **Brentford ** to win by **1.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brentford** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Rotherham** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Brentford ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
18.52 |
0-1 |
4.37 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
1.88 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.17 |

3 |
3.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.37 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.78 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |

NoG |
2.28 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.10 |
4.24 |
3.47 |

2-3 goals |
1.83 |
3.95 |
5.03 |

4+ goals |
2.02 |
3.29 |
5.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.88 |
3.72 |
5.02 |

Un 1.5 |
2.10 |
4.24 |
3.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |
6.93 |
4.11 |

Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
2.62 |
5.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.29 |
5.00 |

Un 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.03 |
4.43 |

Goal-Goal |
2.31 |
2.71 |
5.07 |

No Goal |
1.59 |
8.13 |
4.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
5.86 |
3.86 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
8.13 |
3.72 |

####
Go to Top

###
Watford vs Nott’m Forest at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Nott’m Forest** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
1.93 |
1.75 |
5.3 |

Draw |
3.40 |
4.17 |
-5.4 |

Nott’m Forest |
4.25 |
5.32 |
-4.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.04 |
7.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.96 |
-11.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Watford, Over 2.5 (5.3 %, 7.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 13 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 80.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Blackburn |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Feb |
Derby |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Preston |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Bristol City |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
QPR |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Nott’m Forest** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nott’m Forest** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance** as a guest**.

Nott’m Forest,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Feb |
Derby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Watford** is **0.63** and for the **Nott’m Forest** is **-0.105.**

The home dynamic for the **Watford** is **0.387** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Nott’m Forest** is **-0.396.**

The offensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.545** and for the **Nott’m Forest** is **-0.116.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.145** and for the **Nott’m Forest** is **-0.059.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Nott’m Forest. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
18% |
29% |
29% |
24% |

Nott’m Forest |
40% |
40% |
12% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Nott’m Forest** to score **0.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Nott’m Forest** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.39 |

3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.39 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |