2021 03 05 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Chesterfield vs Yeovil at 06 March 2021
Weymouth vs Stockport at 06 March 2021
Wealdstone vs Halifax at 06 March 2021
Torquay vs Hartlepool at 06 March 2021
Sutton vs Wrexham at 06 March 2021
Solihull vs Maidenhead at 06 March 2021
Dag and Red vs Boreham Wood at 06 March 2021
Eastleigh vs Bromley at 06 March 2021


Chesterfield vs Yeovil at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chesterfield and Yeovil for Conference (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chesterfield

2.07

1.99

1.9

Draw

3.37

4.02

-4.8

Yeovil

3.37

4.00

-4.7

Over 2.5

1.92

1.97

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.85

2.03

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Chesterfield (1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chesterfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance at home.
Chesterfield, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Eastleigh

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Stockport

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Altrincham

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Dag and Red

A

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Wrexham

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Jan

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G


Yeovil in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance as a guest.
Yeovil, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Barnet

A

4

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Dag and Red

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Weymouth

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Hartlepool

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Altrincham

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Stockport

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Chesterfield is 0.348 and for the Yeovil is 0.653.
The home dynamic for the Chesterfield is -0.022 and the dynamic as a guest for the Yeovil is -0.036.
The offensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.209 and for the Yeovil is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.586 and for the Yeovil is -0.356.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chesterfield and the red line for guest team, Yeovil.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chesterfield

24%

25%

26%

25%

Yeovil

35%

37%

19%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.47 goals and Yeovil to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.52 goals and Yeovil to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.63

0-1

3.82

1

5.68

2-3

2.07

2

4.35

4+

3.91

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.82

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.01

3.05

2.94

2-3 goals

1.75

5.31

4.16

4+ goals

1.84

3.56

5.69

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.53

4.59

Un 1.5

3.01

3.05

2.94

Ov 2.5

1.58

7.07

4.46

Un 2.5

2.75

2.78

3.62

Ov 3.5

1.84

3.56

5.69

Un 3.5

2.05

4.21

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.09

3.01

5.28

No Goal

1.91

5.93

3.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.70

5.56

4.30

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

5.93

2.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Weymouth vs Stockport at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Weymouth and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Weymouth

5.33

3.00

14.6

Draw

3.89

3.64

1.8

Stockport

1.58

2.55

-24.1

Over 2.5

1.90

2.01

-2.9

Under 2.5

1.87

1.99

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Weymouth, Draw (14.6 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Weymouth in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance at home.
Weymouth, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Yeovil

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Solihull

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Bromley

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Aldershot

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Hartlepool

H

1

0

W

U

N


Stockport in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Chesterfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Notts County

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Feb

Maidenhead

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Feb

Aldershot

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Yeovil

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Feb

Sutton

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Woking

A

4

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Weymouth is -0.311 and for the Stockport is 0.089.
The home dynamic for the Weymouth is -0.839 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stockport is 0.324.
The offensive ability for the Weymouth is -0.118 and for the Stockport is -0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Weymouth is -0.586 and for the Stockport is 0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Weymouth and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Weymouth

24%

42%

21%

12%

Stockport

25%

34%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Weymouth to score 0.74 goals and Stockport to score 1.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the guest team Stockport to win by 1.04 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1.22 goals and Stockport to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.05

1

5.38

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

3.95

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.05

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.31

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38

4.05

3.01

2-3 goals

3.21

3.55

2.46

4+ goals

3.47

3.42

2.39

Ov 1.5

3.29

3.51

2.43

Un 1.5

2.38

4.05

3.01

Ov 2.5

2.84

6.76

2.00

Un 2.5

3.19

2.48

3.53

Ov 3.5

3.47

3.42

2.39

Un 3.5

2.88

3.70

2.62

Goal-Goal

3.92

2.65

2.72

No Goal

2.30

7.08

2.36

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.95

5.78

2.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

7.08

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wealdstone vs Halifax at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wealdstone

3.34

2.50

10.1

Draw

3.59

3.73

-1.0

Halifax

2.00

3.01

-16.8

Over 2.5

1.68

2.02

-10.0

Under 2.5

2.13

1.98

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (10.1 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Wrexham

A

1

4

L

O

G

23 Feb

Eastleigh

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Sutton

A

1

4

L

O

G

09 Feb

Torquay

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Altrincham

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Aldershot

H

3

4

L

O

G

09 Jan

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G


Halifax in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Hartlepool

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Torquay

A

3

2

W

O

G

16 Feb

Barnet

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Maidenhead

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Dec

Altrincham

H

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Wealdstone is -0.281 and for the Halifax is -0.105.
The home dynamic for the Wealdstone is -0.032 and the dynamic as a guest for the Halifax is -0.09.
The offensive ability for the Wealdstone is 0.245 and for the Halifax is 0.657.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wealdstone is -0.119 and for the Halifax is -0.704.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wealdstone

26%

33%

24%

17%

Halifax

29%

35%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.14 goals and Halifax to score 1.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the guest team Halifax to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.33 goals and Halifax to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.83

1

5.35

2-3

2.05

2

4.10

4+

3.97

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.83

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.69

3.53

2.90

2-3 goals

2.40

4.16

2.92

4+ goals

2.52

3.27

3.36

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.81

3.05

Un 1.5

2.69

3.53

2.90

Ov 2.5

2.12

6.43

2.69

Un 2.5

3.04

2.64

3.41

Ov 3.5

2.52

3.27

3.36

Un 3.5

2.49

3.92

2.91

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.73

3.50

No Goal

2.18

6.36

2.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

5.35

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.36

2.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torquay vs Hartlepool at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

2.26

2.16

2.0

Draw

3.37

3.86

-3.8

Hartlepool

2.93

3.58

-6.2

Over 2.5

1.95

1.98

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.81

2.02

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Torquay (2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Solihull

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Halifax

H

2

3

L

O

G

09 Feb

Wealdstone

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Feb

Altrincham

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Notts County

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Yeovil

A

1

2

L

O

G


Hartlepool in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Halifax

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Barnet

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Yeovil

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Feb

Eastleigh

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sutton

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Weymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Torquay is 0 and for the Hartlepool is 0.274.
The home dynamic for the Torquay is 0.462 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hartlepool is -0.018.
The offensive ability for the Torquay is 0.664 and for the Hartlepool is 0.597.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Torquay is -0.322 and for the Hartlepool is -0.015.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torquay and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torquay

23%

30%

25%

22%

Hartlepool

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.35 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.45 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.91

1

5.52

2-3

2.05

2

4.20

4+

3.88

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.91

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-