# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** FC Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam at 05 March 2021**** Waalwijk vs Utrecht at 06 March 2021**** Twente vs Willem II at 06 March 2021**** Feyenoord vs VVV Venlo at 06 March 2021**** Heerenveen vs Den Haag at 06 March 2021**** Heracles vs Zwolle at 07 March 2021**** Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar at 07 March 2021**** Ajax vs Groningen at 07 March 2021**

###
FC Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam at 05 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Emmen** and **Sparta Rotterdam** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **05 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Emmen |
2.94 |
2.85 |
1.1 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.73 |
-2.2 |

Sparta Rotterdam |
2.35 |
2.62 |
-4.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.74 |
5.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.36 |
-9.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **FC Emmen, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 5.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** at home**.

FC Emmen,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 9 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Zwolle |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Feb |
Waalwijk |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance** as a guest**.

Sparta Rotterdam,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Jan |
Twente |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.237** and for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.839.**

The home dynamic for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.989** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **0.171.**

The offensive ability for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.518** and for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.116.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.533** and for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.704.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Emmen** and the red line for guest team, **Sparta Rotterdam. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Emmen |
23% |
36% |
19% |
22% |

Sparta Rotterdam |
18% |
38% |
25% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.44 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.84** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
23.81 |
0-1 |
5.10 |

1 |
6.49 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
3.01 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.24 |

4 |
5.03 |
Un 1.5 |
5.10 |

5 |
10.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |

6+ |
23.81 |
Un 2.5 |
2.35 |

Gg |
1.59 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.01 |

NoG |
2.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.49 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.97 |
4.67 |
2.23 |

2-3 goals |
3.25 |
3.46 |
2.48 |

4+ goals |
2.35 |
3.77 |
3.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.81 |
3.58 |
2.74 |

Un 1.5 |
2.97 |
4.67 |
2.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
6.56 |
2.44 |

Un 2.5 |
4.25 |
2.37 |
2.91 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.77 |
3.22 |

Un 3.5 |
3.16 |
3.74 |
2.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.97 |
2.80 |
3.26 |

No Goal |
2.64 |
8.86 |
1.97 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.60 |
2.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
8.86 |
1.97 |

####
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###
Waalwijk vs Utrecht at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Waalwijk** and **Utrecht** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Waalwijk |
5.15 |
2.64 |
18.5 |

Draw |
4.13 |
3.89 |
1.5 |

Utrecht |
1.60 |
2.75 |
-26.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.63 |
1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.59 |
-6.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Waalwijk, Draw, Over 2.5 (18.5 %, 1.5 %, 1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** at home**.

Waalwijk,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Feb |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Utrecht** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Utrecht** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance** as a guest**.

Utrecht,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Willem II |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Zwolle |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Waalwijk** is **0.222** and for the **Utrecht** is **0.395.**

The home dynamic for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.548** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Utrecht** is **0.009.**

The offensive ability for the **Waalwijk** is **0.518** and for the **Utrecht** is **0.545.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Waalwijk** is **0.322** and for the **Utrecht** is **-0.059.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Waalwijk** and the red line for guest team, **Utrecht. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Waalwijk |
22% |
29% |
25% |
24% |

Utrecht |
19% |
35% |
26% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **0.84 ** goals and **Utrecht** to score **1.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.84** goals in the game and the guest team **Utrecht ** to win by **1.15** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Utrecht** to score **1.46 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.96** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
23.26 |
0-1 |
5.62 |

1 |
7.41 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
4.78 |
4+ |
2.76 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.22 |

4 |
4.88 |
Un 1.5 |
5.62 |

5 |
9.09 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |

6+ |
21.28 |
Un 2.5 |
2.58 |

Gg |
1.59 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.76 |

NoG |
2.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.56 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.18 |
4.14 |
2.25 |

2-3 goals |
2.58 |
4.43 |
2.59 |

4+ goals |
2.50 |
3.29 |
3.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.85 |
2.89 |

Un 1.5 |
3.18 |
4.14 |
2.25 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.58 |
2.70 |

Un 2.5 |
3.76 |
2.63 |
2.82 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.29 |
3.38 |

Un 3.5 |
2.72 |
4.35 |
2.49 |

Goal-Goal |
2.71 |
2.94 |
3.44 |

No Goal |
2.51 |
8.65 |
2.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
4.77 |
2.87 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
8.65 |
2.07 |

####
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###
Twente vs Willem II at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Twente** and **Willem II** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Twente |
1.72 |
1.91 |
-5.8 |

Draw |
3.88 |
4.26 |
-2.3 |

Willem II |
4.46 |
4.15 |
1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.72 |
0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.39 |
-5.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Willem II, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Twente** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Twente** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance** at home**.

Twente,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Vitesse |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Groningen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Willem II** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Willem II** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance** as a guest**.

Willem II,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Feb |
Utrecht |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Twente** is **0.015** and for the **Willem II** is **-0.226.**

The home dynamic for the **Twente** is **-0.452** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Willem II** is **-0.577.**

The offensive ability for the **Twente** is **-0.091** and for the **Willem II** is **0.227.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Twente** is **0.084** and for the **Willem II** is **-0.311.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Twente** and the red line for guest team, **Willem II. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Twente |
20% |
21% |
32% |
28% |

Willem II |
33% |
34% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Twente** to score **1.84 ** goals and **Willem II** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.75** goals in the game and the home team **Twente ** to win by **0.93** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Twente** to score **1.67 ** goals and **Willem II** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.79** goals in the game and the home team **Twente ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.95 |

1 |
7.30 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.63 |
4+ |
3.17 |

3 |
3.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.25 |

4 |
5.41 |
Un 1.5 |
4.95 |

5 |
10.53 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.39 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.17 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.46 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.93 |
3.11 |
2.97 |

2-3 goals |
1.58 |
6.69 |
4.59 |

4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.21 |
4.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.76 |
4.69 |
4.61 |

Un 1.5 |
2.93 |
3.11 |
2.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
5.93 |
4.34 |

Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
3.05 |
3.91 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.21 |
4.63 |

Un 3.5 |
1.83 |
4.99 |
3.95 |

Goal-Goal |
2.08 |
3.16 |
4.93 |

No Goal |
1.74 |
7.11 |
3.50 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
4.74 |
4.27 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
7.11 |
3.23 |

####
Go to Top

###
Feyenoord vs VVV Venlo at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Feyenoord** and **VVV Venlo** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Feyenoord |
1.28 |
1.93 |
-26.3 |

Draw |
5.92 |
3.95 |
8.4 |

VVV Venlo |
9.13 |
4.35 |
12.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.37 |
2.06 |
-24.4 |

Under 2.5 |
3.03 |
1.95 |
18.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (8.4 %, 12 %, 18.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Feyenoord** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Feyenoord** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Feyenoord’s performance** at home**.

Feyenoord,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Feyenoord was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Twente |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Willem II |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** as a guest**.

VVV Venlo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Twente |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Feyenoord** is **-0.022** and for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.556.**

The home dynamic for the **Feyenoord** is **0.258** and the dynamic as a guest for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.09.**

The offensive ability for the **Feyenoord** is **0.209** and for the **VVV Venlo** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Feyenoord** is **-0.181** and for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.726.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Feyenoord** and the red line for guest team, **VVV Venlo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Feyenoord |
22% |
28% |
26% |
23% |

VVV Venlo |
36% |
40% |
16% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Feyenoord** to score **2.84 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **0.64 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.48** goals in the game and the home team **Feyenoord ** to win by **2.2** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Feyenoord** to score **1.51 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Feyenoord ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.29 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |