2021 03 05 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

FC Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam at 05 March 2021
Waalwijk vs Utrecht at 06 March 2021
Twente vs Willem II at 06 March 2021
Feyenoord vs VVV Venlo at 06 March 2021
Heerenveen vs Den Haag at 06 March 2021
Heracles vs Zwolle at 07 March 2021
Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar at 07 March 2021
Ajax vs Groningen at 07 March 2021


FC Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam at 05 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 05 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Emmen

2.94

2.85

1.1

Draw

3.45

3.73

-2.2

Sparta Rotterdam

2.35

2.62

-4.4

Over 2.5

1.93

1.74

5.7

Under 2.5

1.92

2.36

-9.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Emmen, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 5.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Emmen in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance at home.
FC Emmen, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Utrecht

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Zwolle

H

3

2

W

O

G

12 Feb

Waalwijk

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Willem II

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Den Haag

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Vitesse

H

1

4

L

O

G


Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance as a guest.
Sparta Rotterdam, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Willem II

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Ajax

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Feb

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Den Haag

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Jan

Twente

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Utrecht

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

3

5

L

O

G

13 Jan

For Sittard

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the FC Emmen is -0.237 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.839.
The home dynamic for the FC Emmen is -0.989 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sparta Rotterdam is 0.171.
The offensive ability for the FC Emmen is -0.518 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.116.
Finally, the defensive ability for the FC Emmen is -0.533 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.704.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Emmen and the red line for guest team, Sparta Rotterdam.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Emmen

23%

36%

19%

22%

Sparta Rotterdam

18%

38%

25%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.16 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.4 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.44 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.84 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

23.81

0-1

5.10

1

6.49

2-3

2.11

2

4.37

4+

3.01

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.24

4

5.03

Un 1.5

5.10

5

10.99

Ov 2.5

1.73

6+

23.81

Un 2.5

2.35

Gg

1.59

Ov 3.5

3.01

NoG

2.69

Un 3.5

1.49

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.97

4.67

2.23

2-3 goals

3.25

3.46

2.48

4+ goals

2.35

3.77

3.22

Ov 1.5

2.81

3.58

2.74

Un 1.5

2.97

4.67

2.23

Ov 2.5

2.28

6.56

2.44

Un 2.5

4.25

2.37

2.91

Ov 3.5

2.35

3.77

3.22

Un 3.5

3.16

3.74

2.40

Goal-Goal

2.97

2.80

3.26

No Goal

2.64

8.86

1.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

5.60

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.88

8.86

1.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Waalwijk vs Utrecht at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Waalwijk and Utrecht for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Waalwijk

5.15

2.64

18.5

Draw

4.13

3.89

1.5

Utrecht

1.60

2.75

-26.1

Over 2.5

1.68

1.63

1.8

Under 2.5

2.22

2.59

-6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk, Draw, Over 2.5 (18.5 %, 1.5 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Waalwijk in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance at home.
Waalwijk, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Den Haag

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Heracles

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Feb

FC Emmen

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Vitesse

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Willem II

H

1

1

D

U

G


Utrecht in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance as a guest.
Utrecht, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

FC Emmen

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Feb

Willem II

A

6

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

VVV Venlo

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Zwolle

H

3

3

D

O

G

27 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Heracles

H

2

0

W

U

N

12 Jan

Vitesse

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Waalwijk is 0.222 and for the Utrecht is 0.395.
The home dynamic for the Waalwijk is -0.548 and the dynamic as a guest for the Utrecht is 0.009.
The offensive ability for the Waalwijk is 0.518 and for the Utrecht is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Waalwijk is 0.322 and for the Utrecht is -0.059.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Waalwijk and the red line for guest team, Utrecht.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Waalwijk

22%

29%

25%

24%

Utrecht

19%

35%

26%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 0.84 goals and Utrecht to score 1.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.84 goals in the game and the guest team Utrecht to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.5 goals and Utrecht to score 1.46 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

23.26

0-1

5.62

1

7.41

2-3

2.17

2

4.78

4+

2.76

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.22

4

4.88

Un 1.5

5.62

5

9.09

Ov 2.5

1.63

6+

21.28

Un 2.5

2.58

Gg

1.59

Ov 3.5

2.76

NoG

2.69

Un 3.5

1.56

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.18

4.14

2.25

2-3 goals

2.58

4.43

2.59

4+ goals

2.50

3.29

3.38

Ov 1.5

2.54

3.85

2.89

Un 1.5

3.18

4.14

2.25

Ov 2.5

2.22

5.58

2.70

Un 2.5

3.76

2.63

2.82

Ov 3.5

2.50

3.29

3.38

Un 3.5

2.72

4.35

2.49

Goal-Goal

2.71

2.94

3.44

No Goal

2.51

8.65

2.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

4.77

2.87

NG+Un 2.5

2.75

8.65

2.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Twente vs Willem II at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Twente and Willem II for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Twente

1.72

1.91

-5.8

Draw

3.88

4.26

-2.3

Willem II

4.46

4.15

1.7

Over 2.5

1.74

1.72

0.7

Under 2.5

2.13

2.39

-5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Willem II, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Twente in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Twente in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance at home.
Twente, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Heracles

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Vitesse

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Heerenveen

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Groningen

A

2

2

D

O

G


Willem II in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Willem II in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance as a guest.
Willem II, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Sparta Rotterdam

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Utrecht

H

0

6

L

O

N

14 Feb

Feyenoord

A

0

5

L

O

N

31 Jan

FC Emmen

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Jan

Ajax

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Zwolle

H

1

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Waalwijk

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Twente is 0.015 and for the Willem II is -0.226.
The home dynamic for the Twente is -0.452 and the dynamic as a guest for the Willem II is -0.577.
The offensive ability for the Twente is -0.091 and for the Willem II is 0.227.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Twente is 0.084 and for the Willem II is -0.311.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Twente and the red line for guest team, Willem II.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Twente

20%

21%

32%

28%

Willem II

33%

34%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Twente to score 1.84 goals and Willem II to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Twente to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Twente to score 1.67 goals and Willem II to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the home team Twente to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

4.95

1

7.30

2-3

2.07

2

4.63

4+

3.17

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.25

4

5.41

Un 1.5

4.95

5

10.53

Ov 2.5

1.72

6+

28.57

Un 2.5

2.39

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.17

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.46

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.93

3.11

2.97

2-3 goals

1.58

6.69

4.59

4+ goals

2.11

3.21

4.63

Ov 1.5

1.76

4.69

4.61

Un 1.5

2.93

3.11

2.97

Ov 2.5

1.66

5.93

4.34

Un 2.5

2.40

3.05

3.91

Ov 3.5

2.11

3.21

4.63

Un 3.5

1.83

4.99

3.95

Goal-Goal

2.08

3.16

4.93

No Goal

1.74

7.11

3.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.80

4.74

4.27

NG+Un 2.5

1.99

7.11

3.23


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Feyenoord vs VVV Venlo at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Feyenoord and VVV Venlo for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Feyenoord

1.28

1.93

-26.3

Draw

5.92

3.95

8.4

VVV Venlo

9.13

4.35

12.0

Over 2.5

1.37

2.06

-24.4

Under 2.5

3.03

1.95

18.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (8.4 %, 12 %, 18.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Feyenoord in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Feyenoord in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Feyenoord’s performance at home.
Feyenoord, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Feyenoord was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

A

2

4

L

O

G

24 Feb

Groningen

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Twente

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Willem II

H

5

0

W

O

N

31 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Jan

Heerenveen

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Ajax

A

0

1

L

U

N


VVV Venlo in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance as a guest.
VVV Venlo, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Vitesse

A

1

4

L

O

G

20 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

4

L

O

G

14 Feb

Utrecht

A

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

For Sittard

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Vitesse

H

4

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Twente

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Jan

Den Haag

A

4

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Feyenoord is -0.022 and for the VVV Venlo is -0.556.
The home dynamic for the Feyenoord is 0.258 and the dynamic as a guest for the VVV Venlo is -0.09.
The offensive ability for the Feyenoord is 0.209 and for the VVV Venlo is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Feyenoord is -0.181 and for the VVV Venlo is -0.726.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Feyenoord and the red line for guest team, VVV Venlo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Feyenoord

22%

28%

26%

23%

VVV Venlo

36%

40%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Feyenoord to score 2.84 goals and VVV Venlo to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.48 goals in the game and the home team Feyenoord to win by 2.2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Feyenoord to score 1.51 goals and VVV Venlo to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Feyenoord to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.68

1

5.26

2-3

2.02

2

4.12

4+

4.29

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.68

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.29