# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Valencia vs Villarreal at 05 March 2021**** Cadiz vs Eibar at 06 March 2021**** Osasuna vs Barcelona at 06 March 2021**** Valladolid vs Getafe at 06 March 2021**** Elche vs Sevilla at 06 March 2021**** Sociedad vs Levante at 07 March 2021**** Ath Madrid vs Real Madrid at 07 March 2021**** Ath Bilbao vs Granada at 07 March 2021**** Huesca vs Celta at 07 March 2021**** Betis vs Alaves at 08 March 2021**

###
Valencia vs Villarreal at 05 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Valencia** and **Villarreal** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **05 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Valencia |
3.87 |
2.38 |
16.2 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.70 |
-3.2 |

Villarreal |
2.10 |
3.23 |
-16.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.04 |
1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.96 |
-5.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Valencia, Over 2.5 (16.2 %, 1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Valencia** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valencia** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance** at home**.

Valencia,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Celta |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Elche |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Jan |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Villarreal** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Villarreal** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance** as a guest**.

Villarreal,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Betis |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Elche |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Sociedad |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Granada |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Celta |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Valencia** is **-0.17** and for the **Villarreal** is **-0.492.**

The home dynamic for the **Valencia** is **-0.344** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Villarreal** is **0.261.**

The offensive ability for the **Valencia** is **0.091** and for the **Villarreal** is **0.227.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Valencia** is **-0.207** and for the **Villarreal** is **-0.726.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Valencia** and the red line for guest team, **Villarreal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Valencia |
23% |
36% |
21% |
19% |

Villarreal |
30% |
36% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Valencia** to score **0.94 ** goals and **Villarreal** to score **1.44 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the guest team **Villarreal ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Valencia** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Villarreal** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.00 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.73 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.42 |
3.72 |
3.14 |

4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.68 |
3.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.71 |
3.25 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.73 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
7.22 |
2.77 |

Un 2.5 |
2.94 |
2.53 |
3.79 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.68 |
3.47 |

Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.73 |
3.13 |

Goal-Goal |
2.84 |
2.69 |
3.62 |

No Goal |
2.01 |
6.58 |
2.85 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
5.91 |
2.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.58 |
2.82 |

####
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###
Cadiz vs Eibar at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cadiz** and **Eibar** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cadiz |
3.22 |
2.45 |
9.8 |

Draw |
3.14 |
3.73 |
-5.0 |

Eibar |
2.44 |
3.09 |
-8.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.62 |
1.93 |
13.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
2.08 |
-18.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cadiz, Over 2.5 (9.8 %, 13.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cadiz** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cadiz** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance** at home**.

Cadiz,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Betis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Feb |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
Levante |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Alaves |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Eibar** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Eibar** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance** as a guest**.

Eibar,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Elche |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Feb |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Celta |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Levante |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Cadiz** is **-0.815** and for the **Eibar** is **-0.629.**

The home dynamic for the **Cadiz** is **-0.312** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Eibar** is **0.054.**

The offensive ability for the **Cadiz** is **-0.245** and for the **Eibar** is **0.227.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cadiz** is **-1** and for the **Eibar** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cadiz** and the red line for guest team, **Eibar. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cadiz |
24% |
32% |
25% |
19% |

Eibar |
25% |
40% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cadiz** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Eibar** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.03** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cadiz** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Eibar** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.20 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.69 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.20 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.76 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.69 |

NoG |
2.31 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.97 |
3.90 |
2.45 |

2-3 goals |
2.31 |
3.84 |
3.26 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.43 |
3.52 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.69 |
3.35 |

Un 1.5 |
2.97 |
3.90 |
2.45 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.58 |
2.94 |

Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
2.54 |
3.25 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.43 |
3.52 |

Un 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.86 |
2.94 |

Goal-Goal |
2.62 |
2.75 |
3.92 |

No Goal |
2.26 |
7.08 |
2.40 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.58 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
7.08 |
2.39 |

####
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###
Osasuna vs Barcelona at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Osasuna** and **Barcelona** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Osasuna |
5.71 |
2.81 |
18.1 |

Draw |
4.32 |
3.70 |
3.9 |

Barcelona |
1.57 |
2.67 |
-26.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.89 |
-7.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.13 |
2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Osasuna, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.1 %, 3.9 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Osasuna** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Osasuna** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance** at home**.

Osasuna,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Alaves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Levante |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Feb |
Betis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Granada |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Jan |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Granada |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Barcelona** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barcelona** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance** as a guest**.

Barcelona,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Sevilla |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Elche |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Feb |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Alaves |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Betis |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Elche |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Granada |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Osasuna** is **0.333** and for the **Barcelona** is **0.815.**

The home dynamic for the **Osasuna** is **-0.452** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Barcelona** is **0.405.**

The offensive ability for the **Osasuna** is **0.182** and for the **Barcelona** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Osasuna** is **-0.119** and for the **Barcelona** is **-0.237.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Osasuna** and the red line for guest team, **Barcelona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Osasuna |
26% |
34% |
24% |
17% |

Barcelona |
21% |
40% |
23% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Osasuna** to score **0.8 ** goals and **Barcelona** to score **2.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.88** goals in the game and the guest team **Barcelona ** to win by **1.28** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Osasuna** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Barcelona** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
18.52 |
0-1 |
4.41 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.55 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
4.41 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
1.70 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |

NoG |
2.43 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.20 |
4.20 |
2.23 |

2-3 goals |
2.73 |
3.64 |
2.78 |

4+ goals |
2.69 |
3.44 |
2.97 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.57 |
2.85 |

Un 1.5 |
3.20 |
4.20 |
2.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
6.48 |
2.48 |

Un 2.5 |
3.88 |
2.49 |
2.94 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.69 |
3.44 |
2.97 |

Un 3.5 |
2.86 |
3.80 |
2.58 |

Goal-Goal |
2.94 |
2.71 |
3.42 |

No Goal |
2.64 |
7.63 |
2.04 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.54 |
2.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
7.63 |
2.09 |

####
Go to Top

###
Valladolid vs Getafe at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Valladolid** and **Getafe** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Valladolid |
2.98 |
2.02 |
15.9 |

Draw |
2.91 |
3.85 |
-8.4 |

Getafe |
2.78 |
4.08 |
-11.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.95 |
1.98 |
16.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.39 |
2.02 |
-22.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Valladolid, Over 2.5 (15.9 %, 16.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Valladolid** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valladolid** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance** at home**.

Valladolid,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Celta |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Eibar |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Feb |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Levante |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Elche |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Valencia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Getafe** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Getafe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Getafe** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Getafe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance** as a guest**.

Getafe,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Getafe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Getafe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
Valencia |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Feb |
Betis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Sociedad |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Alaves |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Valladolid** is **-0.496** and for the **Getafe** is **-0.597.**

The home dynamic for the **Valladolid** is **-0.441** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Getafe** is **-0.108.**

The offensive ability for the **Valladolid** is **0.155** and for the **Getafe** is **-0.863.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Valladolid** is **-1** and for the **Getafe** is **-0.333.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Valladolid** and the red line for guest team, **Getafe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Valladolid |
20% |
32% |
23% |
24% |

Getafe |
32% |
40% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Valladolid** to score **0.91 ** goals and **Getafe** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.87** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Valladolid** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Getafe** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the home team **Valladolid ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |