Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Valencia vs Villarreal at 05 March 2021
Cadiz vs Eibar at 06 March 2021
Osasuna vs Barcelona at 06 March 2021
Valladolid vs Getafe at 06 March 2021
Elche vs Sevilla at 06 March 2021
Sociedad vs Levante at 07 March 2021
Ath Madrid vs Real Madrid at 07 March 2021
Ath Bilbao vs Granada at 07 March 2021
Huesca vs Celta at 07 March 2021
Betis vs Alaves at 08 March 2021
Valencia vs Villarreal at 05 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Villarreal for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 05 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Valencia |
3.87 |
2.38 |
16.2 |
|
Draw |
3.31 |
3.70 |
-3.2 |
|
Villarreal |
2.10 |
3.23 |
-16.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.04 |
1.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.96 |
-5.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Valencia, Over 2.5 (16.2 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Valencia in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valencia in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance at home.
Valencia, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valencia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Celta |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Elche |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Villarreal in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance as a guest.
Villarreal, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
28 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Betis |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Elche |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Sociedad |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Granada |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Celta |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The form score for the Valencia is -0.17 and for the Villarreal is -0.492.
The home dynamic for the Valencia is -0.344 and the dynamic as a guest for the Villarreal is 0.261.
The offensive ability for the Valencia is 0.091 and for the Villarreal is 0.227.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Valencia is -0.207 and for the Villarreal is -0.726.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valencia and the red line for guest team, Villarreal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Valencia |
23% |
36% |
21% |
19% |
|
Villarreal |
30% |
36% |
21% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valencia to score 0.94 goals and Villarreal to score 1.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the guest team Villarreal to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.36 goals and Villarreal to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.77 |
|
1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.00 |
|
3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |
|
5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |
|
NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.73 |
3.12 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.42 |
3.72 |
3.14 |
|
4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.68 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.71 |
3.25 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.73 |
3.12 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
7.22 |
2.77 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.94 |
2.53 |
3.79 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.68 |
3.47 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.73 |
3.13 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.84 |
2.69 |
3.62 |
|
No Goal |
2.01 |
6.58 |
2.85 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
5.91 |
2.73 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.58 |
2.82 |
Go to Top
Cadiz vs Eibar at 06 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Cadiz and Eibar for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cadiz |
3.22 |
2.45 |
9.8 |
|
Draw |
3.14 |
3.73 |
-5.0 |
|
Eibar |
2.44 |
3.09 |
-8.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.62 |
1.93 |
13.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
2.08 |
-18.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Cadiz, Over 2.5 (9.8 %, 13.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Cadiz in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance at home.
Cadiz, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
28 Feb |
Betis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Levante |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Alaves |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Eibar in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eibar in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance as a guest.
Eibar, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eibar was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Elche |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
07 Feb |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Celta |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Levante |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the Cadiz is -0.815 and for the Eibar is -0.629.
The home dynamic for the Cadiz is -0.312 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eibar is 0.054.
The offensive ability for the Cadiz is -0.245 and for the Eibar is 0.227.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cadiz is -1 and for the Eibar is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cadiz and the red line for guest team, Eibar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cadiz |
24% |
32% |
25% |
19% |
|
Eibar |
25% |
40% |
21% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cadiz to score 0.92 goals and Eibar to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.39 goals and Eibar to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.20 |
|
1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.69 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.20 |
|
5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
Gg |
1.76 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.69 |
|
NoG |
2.31 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.97 |
3.90 |
2.45 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.31 |
3.84 |
3.26 |
|
4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.43 |
3.52 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.69 |
3.35 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.97 |
3.90 |
2.45 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.58 |
2.94 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
2.54 |
3.25 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.43 |
3.52 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.86 |
2.94 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.62 |
2.75 |
3.92 |
|
No Goal |
2.26 |
7.08 |
2.40 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.58 |
3.04 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
7.08 |
2.39 |
Go to Top
Osasuna vs Barcelona at 06 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Osasuna and Barcelona for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Osasuna |
5.71 |
2.81 |
18.1 |
|
Draw |
4.32 |
3.70 |
3.9 |
|
Barcelona |
1.57 |
2.67 |
-26.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.89 |
-7.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.13 |
2.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Osasuna, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.1 %, 3.9 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Osasuna in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Osasuna in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance at home.
Osasuna, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Alaves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Feb |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Levante |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Feb |
Betis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Granada |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Granada |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Barcelona in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance as a guest.
Barcelona, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Sevilla |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Feb |
Elche |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Alaves |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
07 Feb |
Betis |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Elche |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Granada |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The form score for the Osasuna is 0.333 and for the Barcelona is 0.815.
The home dynamic for the Osasuna is -0.452 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barcelona is 0.405.
The offensive ability for the Osasuna is 0.182 and for the Barcelona is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Osasuna is -0.119 and for the Barcelona is -0.237.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Osasuna and the red line for guest team, Barcelona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Osasuna |
26% |
34% |
24% |
17% |
|
Barcelona |
21% |
40% |
23% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Osasuna to score 0.8 goals and Barcelona to score 2.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the guest team Barcelona to win by 1.28 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.32 goals and Barcelona to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
18.52 |
0-1 |
4.41 |
|
1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.55 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |
|
4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
4.41 |
|
5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
|
6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
|
Gg |
1.70 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |
|
NoG |
2.43 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.20 |
4.20 |
2.23 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.73 |
3.64 |
2.78 |
|
4+ goals |
2.69 |
3.44 |
2.97 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.57 |
2.85 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.20 |
4.20 |
2.23 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
6.48 |
2.48 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.88 |
2.49 |
2.94 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.69 |
3.44 |
2.97 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.86 |
3.80 |
2.58 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.94 |
2.71 |
3.42 |
|
No Goal |
2.64 |
7.63 |
2.04 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.54 |
2.64 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
7.63 |
2.09 |
Go to Top
Valladolid vs Getafe at 06 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Getafe for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Valladolid |
2.98 |
2.02 |
15.9 |
|
Draw |
2.91 |
3.85 |
-8.4 |
|
Getafe |
2.78 |
4.08 |
-11.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.95 |
1.98 |
16.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.39 |
2.02 |
-22.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Over 2.5 (15.9 %, 16.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Valladolid in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
28 Feb |
Celta |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Eibar |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Jan |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Levante |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Elche |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Valencia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Getafe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Getafe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance as a guest.
Getafe, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Getafe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Feb |
Valencia |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Feb |
Betis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Sociedad |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Alaves |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Valladolid is -0.496 and for the Getafe is -0.597.
The home dynamic for the Valladolid is -0.441 and the dynamic as a guest for the Getafe is -0.108.
The offensive ability for the Valladolid is 0.155 and for the Getafe is -0.863.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Valladolid is -1 and for the Getafe is -0.333.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Getafe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Valladolid |
20% |
32% |
23% |
24% |
|
Getafe |
32% |
40% |
18% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 0.91 goals and Getafe to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.87 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.52 goals and Getafe to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
3.97 |
|
1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.89 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |
|
5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |
|
NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |