# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town at 06 March 2021**** Gillingham vs Ipswich at 06 March 2021**** Wigan vs Milton Keynes Dons at 06 March 2021**** Sunderland vs Rochdale at 06 March 2021**** Northampton vs Portsmouth at 06 March 2021**** Accrington vs Swindon at 06 March 2021**** Hull vs Bristol Rvs at 06 March 2021**** Lincoln vs Crewe at 06 March 2021**** Oxford vs Charlton at 06 March 2021**** Doncaster vs Plymouth at 06 March 2021**** Burton vs Peterboro at 06 March 2021**** Blackpool vs AFC Wimbledon at 06 March 2021**

###
Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Fleetwood Town** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
2.49 |
2.28 |
3.7 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.75 |
-4.5 |

Fleetwood Town |
2.89 |
3.40 |
-5.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.05 |
4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.95 |
-9.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Fleetwood Town** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fleetwood Town** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Fleetwood Town,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Accrington |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Charlton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Doncaster |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Shrewsbury** is **0.274** and for the **Fleetwood Town** is **-0.073.**

The home dynamic for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.301** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Fleetwood Town** is **0.**

The offensive ability for the **Shrewsbury** is **1** and for the **Fleetwood Town** is **0.253.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.674** and for the **Fleetwood Town** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Fleetwood Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
23% |
33% |
26% |
18% |

Fleetwood Town |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.13 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.13 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.54 |
3.52 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
2.13 |
4.22 |
3.41 |

4+ goals |
2.35 |
3.23 |
3.78 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.20 |
3.83 |
3.52 |

Un 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.52 |
3.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.49 |
3.06 |

Un 2.5 |
2.76 |
2.67 |
3.80 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.23 |
3.78 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.95 |
3.30 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.71 |
3.92 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.39 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.39 |
2.93 |

####
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###
Gillingham vs Ipswich at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Gillingham** and **Ipswich** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Gillingham |
2.96 |
2.67 |
3.7 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.79 |
-4.7 |

Ipswich |
2.44 |
2.77 |
-4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
1.96 |
4.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.04 |
-9.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gillingham, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Gillingham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gillingham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance** at home**.

Gillingham,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Ipswich** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ipswich** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance** as a guest**.

Ipswich,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 53.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Oxford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Blackpool |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Gillingham** is **0.17** and for the **Ipswich** is **0.371.**

The home dynamic for the **Gillingham** is **-0.108** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Ipswich** is **0.216.**

The offensive ability for the **Gillingham** is **0.573** and for the **Ipswich** is **0.288.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Gillingham** is **-0.621** and for the **Ipswich** is **-0.037.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Gillingham** and the red line for guest team, **Ipswich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Gillingham |
29% |
29% |
25% |
17% |

Ipswich |
24% |
37% |
24% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Gillingham** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Ipswich** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Gillingham** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Ipswich** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.76 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.76 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.46 |
3.56 |
2.33 |

2-3 goals |
2.47 |
4.45 |
2.69 |

4+ goals |
2.49 |
3.13 |
3.59 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.87 |
2.96 |

Un 1.5 |
3.46 |
3.56 |
2.33 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.01 |
2.78 |

Un 2.5 |
3.68 |
2.73 |
2.76 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.13 |
3.59 |

Un 3.5 |
2.74 |
4.10 |
2.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.78 |
3.72 |

No Goal |
2.63 |
6.59 |
2.13 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
5.06 |
2.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
6.59 |
2.15 |

####
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###
Wigan vs Milton Keynes Dons at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wigan** and **Milton Keynes Dons** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wigan |
3.46 |
2.85 |
6.2 |

Draw |
3.57 |
3.72 |
-1.1 |

Milton Keynes Dons |
2.04 |
2.63 |
-11.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.02 |
-3.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.98 |
-1.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wigan (6.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** at home**.

Wigan,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Hull |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** as a guest**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Wigan** is **-0.652** and for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **-0.008.**

The home dynamic for the **Wigan** is **-0.452** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **-0.09.**

The offensive ability for the **Wigan** is **0.155** and for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wigan** is **-1** and for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **-0.704.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wigan** and the red line for guest team, **Milton Keynes Dons. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wigan |
30% |
32% |
23% |
16% |

Milton Keynes Dons |
23% |
38% |
26% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.52 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the guest team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.43 |
3.68 |
2.29 |

2-3 goals |
2.80 |
4.16 |
2.49 |

4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.07 |
3.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.72 |
2.78 |

Un 1.5 |
3.43 |
3.68 |
2.29 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.09 |
2.59 |

Un 2.5 |
3.95 |
2.69 |
2.67 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.07 |
3.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.98 |
3.98 |
2.42 |

Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.69 |
3.54 |

No Goal |
2.80 |
6.67 |
2.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.17 |
2.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.02 |
6.67 |
2.04 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sunderland vs Rochdale at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sunderland** and **Rochdale** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sunderland |
1.40 |
2.09 |
-23.6 |

Draw |
4.72 |
3.73 |
5.6 |

Rochdale |
7.45 |
3.95 |
11.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
2.18 |
-11.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.85 |
6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Rochdale, Under 2.5 (5.6 %, 11.9 %, 6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** at home**.

Sunderland,** at home**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Swindon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Crewe |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Burton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Doncaster |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Gillingham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** as a guest**.

Rochdale,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Burton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Plymouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sunderland** is **0.541** and for the **Rochdale** is **-0.815.**

The home dynamic for the **Sunderland** is **-0.204** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Rochdale** is **0.081.**

The offensive ability for the **Sunderland** is **1** and for the **Rochdale** is **-1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sunderland** is **0.26** and for the **Rochdale** is **-0.333.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sunderland** and the red line for guest team, **Rochdale. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sunderland |
20% |
37% |
25% |
18% |

Rochdale |
37% |
35% |
19% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **2.1 ** goals and **Rochdale** to score **0.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.72** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **1.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Rochdale** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |