2021 03 05 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town at 06 March 2021
Gillingham vs Ipswich at 06 March 2021
Wigan vs Milton Keynes Dons at 06 March 2021
Sunderland vs Rochdale at 06 March 2021
Northampton vs Portsmouth at 06 March 2021
Accrington vs Swindon at 06 March 2021
Hull vs Bristol Rvs at 06 March 2021
Lincoln vs Crewe at 06 March 2021
Oxford vs Charlton at 06 March 2021
Doncaster vs Plymouth at 06 March 2021
Burton vs Peterboro at 06 March 2021
Blackpool vs AFC Wimbledon at 06 March 2021


Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town for League One (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

2.49

2.28

3.7

Draw

3.21

3.75

-4.5

Fleetwood Town

2.89

3.40

-5.2

Over 2.5

2.25

2.05

4.3

Under 2.5

1.65

1.95

-9.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

H

4

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

Accrington

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Feb

Sunderland

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Feb

Crewe

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Peterboro

H

2

0

W

U

N


Fleetwood Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fleetwood Town in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance as a guest.
Fleetwood Town, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Lincoln

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Accrington

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Sunderland

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Charlton

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Doncaster

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Bristol Rvs

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Oxford

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Shrewsbury is 0.274 and for the Fleetwood Town is -0.073.
The home dynamic for the Shrewsbury is -0.301 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fleetwood Town is 0.
The offensive ability for the Shrewsbury is 1 and for the Fleetwood Town is 0.253.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Shrewsbury is -0.674 and for the Fleetwood Town is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

23%

33%

26%

18%

Fleetwood Town

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.18 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.38 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.79

1

5.29

2-3

2.02

2

4.02

4+

4.13

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.79

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.13

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.52

3.11

2-3 goals

2.13

4.22

3.41

4+ goals

2.35

3.23

3.78

Ov 1.5

2.20

3.83

3.52

Un 1.5

2.54

3.52

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.49

3.06

Un 2.5

2.76

2.67

3.80

Ov 3.5

2.35

3.23

3.78

Un 3.5

2.26

3.95

3.30

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.71

3.92

No Goal

1.97

6.39

2.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

5.39

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

6.39

2.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Gillingham vs Ipswich at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gillingham and Ipswich for League One (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Gillingham

2.96

2.67

3.7

Draw

3.22

3.79

-4.7

Ipswich

2.44

2.77

-4.9

Over 2.5

2.15

1.96

4.5

Under 2.5

1.70

2.04

-9.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gillingham, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Gillingham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance at home.
Gillingham, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Feb

Portsmouth

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

AFC Wimbledon

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Bristol Rvs

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Peterboro

H

1

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Charlton

A

3

2

W

O

G

05 Feb

Lincoln

H

0

3

L

O

N

30 Jan

Sunderland

A

2

2

D

O

G


Ipswich in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance as a guest.
Ipswich, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 53.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Accrington

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Oxford

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Feb

Northampton

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Feb

Peterboro

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Blackpool

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Crewe

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Gillingham is 0.17 and for the Ipswich is 0.371.
The home dynamic for the Gillingham is -0.108 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ipswich is 0.216.
The offensive ability for the Gillingham is 0.573 and for the Ipswich is 0.288.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Gillingham is -0.621 and for the Ipswich is -0.037.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gillingham and the red line for guest team, Ipswich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Gillingham

29%

29%

25%

17%

Ipswich

24%

37%

24%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.08 goals and Ipswich to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.31 goals and Ipswich to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.02

1

5.59

2-3

2.06

2

4.17

4+

3.76

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.02

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.76

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.46

3.56

2.33

2-3 goals

2.47

4.45

2.69

4+ goals

2.49

3.13

3.59

Ov 1.5

2.48

3.87

2.96

Un 1.5

3.46

3.56

2.33

Ov 2.5

2.11

6.01

2.78

Un 2.5

3.68

2.73

2.76

Ov 3.5

2.49

3.13

3.59

Un 3.5

2.74

4.10

2.56

Goal-Goal

2.70

2.78

3.72

No Goal

2.63

6.59

2.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

5.06

2.97

NG+Un 2.5

2.86

6.59

2.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Wigan vs Milton Keynes Dons at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wigan and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wigan

3.46

2.85

6.2

Draw

3.57

3.72

-1.1

Milton Keynes Dons

2.04

2.63

-11.0

Over 2.5

1.89

2.02

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.92

1.98

-1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wigan (6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wigan in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance at home.
Wigan, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Charlton

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Peterboro

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Lincoln

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Hull

H

0

5

L

O

N

14 Feb

Oxford

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Northampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

AFC Wimbledon

H

2

3

L

O

G


Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance as a guest.
Milton Keynes Dons, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Gillingham

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Oxford

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Shrewsbury

A

2

4

L

O

G

20 Feb

Northampton

H

4

3

W

O

G

13 Feb

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Rochdale

A

4

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Sunderland

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Wigan is -0.652 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.008.
The home dynamic for the Wigan is -0.452 and the dynamic as a guest for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.09.
The offensive ability for the Wigan is 0.155 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wigan is -1 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.704.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wigan and the red line for guest team, Milton Keynes Dons.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wigan

30%

32%

23%

16%

Milton Keynes Dons

23%

38%

26%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.04 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the guest team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.25 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.94

1

5.41

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

4.02

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.94

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.43

3.68

2.29

2-3 goals

2.80

4.16

2.49

4+ goals

2.52

3.07

3.61

Ov 1.5

2.70

3.72

2.78

Un 1.5

3.43

3.68

2.29

Ov 2.5

2.22

6.09

2.59

Un 2.5

3.95

2.69

2.67

Ov 3.5

2.52

3.07

3.61

Un 3.5

2.98

3.98

2.42

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.69

3.54

No Goal

2.80

6.67

2.03

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.17

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

3.02

6.67

2.04


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Sunderland vs Rochdale at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.40

2.09

-23.6

Draw

4.72

3.73

5.6

Rochdale

7.45

3.95

11.9

Over 2.5

1.75

2.18

-11.3

Under 2.5

2.08

1.85

6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rochdale, Under 2.5 (5.6 %, 11.9 %, 6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Swindon

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Crewe

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Fleetwood Town

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Burton

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Doncaster

H

4

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Shrewsbury

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Gillingham

H

2

2

D

O

G


Rochdale in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Burton

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Northampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Plymouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Feb

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

4

L

O

G

06 Feb

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Bristol Rvs

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Sunderland is 0.541 and for the Rochdale is -0.815.
The home dynamic for the Sunderland is -0.204 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rochdale is 0.081.
The offensive ability for the Sunderland is 1 and for the Rochdale is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sunderland is 0.26 and for the Rochdale is -0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

20%

37%

25%

18%

Rochdale

37%

35%

19%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 2.1 goals and Rochdale to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 1.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.41 goals and Rochdale to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.57

1

4.83

2-3

1.98

2

3.83

4+

4.63

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.57

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-