2021 03 05 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Grimsby vs Forest Green at 06 March 2021
Tranmere vs Crawley Town at 06 March 2021
Stevenage vs Harrogate at 06 March 2021
Salford vs Scunthorpe at 06 March 2021
Morecambe vs Carlisle at 06 March 2021
Colchester vs Newport County at 06 March 2021
Cheltenham vs Port Vale at 06 March 2021
Cambridge vs Walsall at 06 March 2021
Bradford vs Bolton at 06 March 2021
Barrow vs Mansfield at 06 March 2021
Exeter vs Leyton Orient at 06 March 2021
Oldham vs Southend at 06 March 2021


Grimsby vs Forest Green at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Grimsby and Forest Green for League Two (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Grimsby

4.32

3.16

8.5

Draw

3.44

3.69

-2.0

Forest Green

1.85

2.42

-12.7

Over 2.5

2.10

2.18

-1.7

Under 2.5

1.72

1.85

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby (8.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Grimsby in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance at home.
Grimsby, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 28.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Harrogate

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Crawley Town

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Newport County

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Stevenage

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Scunthorpe

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Port Vale

A

0

3

L

O

N


Forest Green in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance as a guest.
Forest Green, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Stevenage

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Colchester

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Feb

Southend

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Feb

Newport County

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Oldham

H

4

3

W

O

G

02 Feb

Carlisle

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Cheltenham

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Leyton Orient

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Grimsby is -0.652 and for the Forest Green is 0.194.
The home dynamic for the Grimsby is -0.441 and the dynamic as a guest for the Forest Green is 0.369.
The offensive ability for the Grimsby is -0.664 and for the Forest Green is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Grimsby is -1 and for the Forest Green is -0.311.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Grimsby and the red line for guest team, Forest Green.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Grimsby

35%

31%

22%

12%

Forest Green

25%

36%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Grimsby to score 0.83 goals and Forest Green to score 1.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the guest team Forest Green to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.11 goals and Forest Green to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.45

1

4.93

2-3

2.04

2

3.97

4+

4.48

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.45

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.72

3.33

2.32

2-3 goals

2.93

4.37

2.33

4+ goals

3.10

3.10

2.82

Ov 1.5

2.98

3.87

2.46

Un 1.5

3.72

3.33

2.32

Ov 2.5

2.51

6.39

2.24

Un 2.5

4.04

2.72

2.59

Ov 3.5

3.10

3.10

2.82

Un 3.5

3.18

3.91

2.33

Goal-Goal

3.21

2.67

3.19

No Goal

3.12

5.87

1.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.48

5.26

2.46

NG+Un 2.5

3.21

5.87

2.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Tranmere vs Crawley Town at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tranmere and Crawley Town for League Two (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tranmere

2.00

2.27

-5.9

Draw

3.56

3.64

-0.6

Crawley Town

3.59

3.52

0.6

Over 2.5

1.88

2.14

-6.5

Under 2.5

1.93

1.88

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crawley Town, Under 2.5 (0.6 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tranmere in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance at home.
Tranmere, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Newport County

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Leyton Orient

A

3

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Carlisle

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

Oldham

H

2

2

D

O

G

09 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Port Vale

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Morecambe

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Harrogate

H

3

2

W

O

G


Crawley Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance as a guest.
Crawley Town, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Exeter

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Grimsby

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Colchester

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Harrogate

H

1

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Leyton Orient

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Cambridge

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Tranmere is 0.541 and for the Crawley Town is -0.427.
The home dynamic for the Tranmere is -0.269 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crawley Town is -0.144.
The offensive ability for the Tranmere is 0.636 and for the Crawley Town is 0.657.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tranmere is -0.533 and for the Crawley Town is -0.311.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tranmere and the red line for guest team, Crawley Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tranmere

22%

38%

21%

19%

Crawley Town

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.55 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Tranmere to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.37 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.62

1

4.88

2-3

2.02

2

3.92

4+

4.39

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.62

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.23

3.89

3.41

2-3 goals

2.37

3.49

3.44

4+ goals

2.13

3.68

3.86

Ov 1.5

2.29

3.54

3.56

Un 1.5

2.23

3.89

3.41

Ov 2.5

1.89

7.55

2.94

Un 2.5

2.75

2.49

4.25

Ov 3.5

2.13

3.68

3.86

Un 3.5

2.32

3.62

3.43

Goal-Goal

2.83

2.58

3.85

No Goal

1.86

6.65

3.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

6.21

2.81

NG+Un 2.5

2.02

6.65

3.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stevenage vs Harrogate at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Harrogate for League Two (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stevenage

3.14

2.86

3.1

Draw

3.22

3.68

-3.9

Harrogate

2.49

2.65

-2.4

Over 2.5

2.44

2.16

5.3

Under 2.5

1.60

1.86

-8.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage, Over 2.5 (3.1 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stevenage in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Forest Green

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Newport County

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Feb

Port Vale

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Crawley Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Morecambe

H

2

2

D

O

G


Harrogate in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance as a guest.
Harrogate, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Barrow

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Grimsby

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Scunthorpe

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Feb

Carlisle

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Crawley Town

A

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Newport County

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Stevenage is 0.207 and for the Harrogate is 0.355.
The home dynamic for the Stevenage is -0.204 and the dynamic as a guest for the Harrogate is 0.054.
The offensive ability for the Stevenage is -0.209 and for the Harrogate is 0.682.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stevenage is 0.674 and for the Harrogate is 0.407.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Harrogate.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stevenage

32%

31%

26%

12%

Harrogate

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 0.99 goals and Harrogate to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.18 goals and Harrogate to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.53

1

5.10

2-3

2.03

2

3.94

4+

4.46

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.53

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.37

3.25

2.53

2-3 goals

2.53

4.52

2.61

4+ goals

3.15

2.95

2.91

Ov 1.5

2.70

3.88

2.70

Un 1.5

3.37

3.25

2.53

Ov 2.5

2.37

6.09

2.41

Un 2.5

3.46

2.74

2.89

Ov 3.5

3.15

2.95

2.91

Un 3.5

2.78

3.96

2.58

Goal-Goal

3.06

2.68

3.34

No Goal

2.69

5.80

2.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.38

5.08

2.61

NG+Un 2.5

2.76

5.80

2.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Salford vs Scunthorpe at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salford

1.79

2.28

-12.0

Draw

3.53

3.75

-1.7

Scunthorpe

4.61

3.39

7.8

Over 2.5

2.22

2.13

1.9

Under 2.5

1.67

1.89

-7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salford in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 8 wins, 8 draws, no defeats and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Feb

Morecambe

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cambridge

H

4

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Oldham

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Jan

Harrogate

H

2

2

D

O

G


Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 6 wins, no draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Bolton

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Harrogate

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Colchester

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Port Vale

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Grimsby

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Barrow

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Salford is 0.311 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.218.
The home dynamic for the Salford is 0.29 and the dynamic as a guest for the Scunthorpe is -0.126.
The offensive ability for the Salford is 0.545 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.167.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Salford is 0.26 and for the Scunthorpe is -0.037.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salford

26%

29%

30%

15%

Scunthorpe

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.5 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.34 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.66

1

5.29

2-3

1.99

2

3.91

4+

4.46

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.66

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

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