2021 03 05 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sheffield United vs Southampton at 06 March 2021
Burnley vs Arsenal at 06 March 2021
Brighton vs Leicester at 06 March 2021
Aston Villa vs Wolves at 06 March 2021
Man City vs Man United at 07 March 2021
West Brom vs Newcastle at 07 March 2021
Liverpool vs Fulham at 07 March 2021
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace at 07 March 2021
West Ham vs Leeds at 08 March 2021
Chelsea vs Everton at 08 March 2021


Sheffield United vs Southampton at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield United and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield United

3.63

2.67

9.9

Draw

3.43

3.68

-2.0

Southampton

2.12

2.83

-11.8

Over 2.5

2.20

2.10

2.2

Under 2.5

1.71

1.91

-6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield United, Over 2.5 (9.9 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield United in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance at home.
Sheffield United, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Aston Villa

H

1

0

W

U

N

28 Feb

Liverpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Fulham

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Feb

West Ham

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Feb

Chelsea

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

West Brom

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Man City

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Jan

Man United

A

2

1

W

O

G


Southampton in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Mar

Everton

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Leeds

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Chelsea

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Wolves

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Newcastle

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Man United

A

0

9

L

O

N

30 Jan

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Arsenal

H

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Sheffield United is -0.333 and for the Southampton is -0.992.
The home dynamic for the Sheffield United is -0.796 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is 0.189.
The offensive ability for the Sheffield United is -0.273 and for the Southampton is -0.202.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sheffield United is -0.533 and for the Southampton is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield United and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield United

27%

35%

24%

14%

Southampton

29%

34%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 0.93 goals and Southampton to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the guest team Southampton to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.25 goals and Southampton to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.65

1

5.10

2-3

2.06

2

4.03

4+

4.18

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.65

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.63

3.51

2.98

2-3 goals

2.52

3.98

2.84

4+ goals

3.10

3.32

2.66

Ov 1.5

2.69

3.74

2.78

Un 1.5

2.63

3.51

2.98

Ov 2.5

2.39

6.63

2.33

Un 2.5

3.00

2.61

3.53

Ov 3.5

3.10

3.32

2.66

Un 3.5

2.56

3.80

2.89

Goal-Goal

3.26

2.67

3.14

No Goal

2.24

6.17

2.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.49

5.50

2.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

6.17

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Burnley vs Arsenal at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Burnley and Arsenal for Premier League (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burnley

5.53

3.51

10.4

Draw

3.97

3.94

0.2

Arsenal

1.65

2.17

-14.5

Over 2.5

1.94

1.94

0.0

Under 2.5

1.90

2.07

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burnley, Draw (10.4 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burnley in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance at home.
Burnley, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Tottenham

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Feb

West Brom

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Feb

Fulham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Crystal Palace

A

3

0

W

O

N

06 Feb

Brighton

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Feb

Man City

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N


Arsenal in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance as a guest.
Arsenal, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Leicester

A

3

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Man City

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Leeds

H

4

2

W

O

G

06 Feb

Aston Villa

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Feb

Wolves

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Jan

Southampton

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Jan

Newcastle

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Burnley is -0.037 and for the Arsenal is -0.226.
The home dynamic for the Burnley is -0.054 and the dynamic as a guest for the Arsenal is 0.135.
The offensive ability for the Burnley is 0.118 and for the Arsenal is -0.116.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Burnley is -0.233 and for the Arsenal is -0.726.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burnley and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burnley

35%

26%

33%

6%

Arsenal

22%

32%

25%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burnley to score 0.74 goals and Arsenal to score 1.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the guest team Arsenal to win by 1.03 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.11 goals and Arsenal to score 1.46 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Arsenal to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

4.10

1

5.99

2-3

2.01

2

4.17

4+

3.88

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.37

Un 1.5

4.10

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.21

3.17

2.24

2-3 goals

2.60

6.06

2.22

4+ goals

7.17

2.72

2.03

Ov 1.5

3.33

4.27

2.15

Un 1.5

4.21

3.17

2.24

Ov 2.5

3.34

5.42

1.94

Un 2.5

3.69

3.04

2.49

Ov 3.5

7.17

2.72

2.03

Un 3.5

2.98

4.66

2.23

Goal-Goal

3.63

2.87

2.66

No Goal

3.39

6.38

1.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.04

4.48

2.23

NG+Un 2.5

3.07

6.38

2.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Brighton vs Leicester at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brighton and Leicester for Premier League (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brighton

2.61

3.24

-7.4

Draw

3.26

3.94

-5.3

Leicester

2.85

2.29

8.6

Over 2.5

2.21

1.90

7.4

Under 2.5

1.70

2.11

-11.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leicester, Over 2.5 (8.6 %, 7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brighton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance at home.
Brighton, at home, had one win, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

West Brom

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Aston Villa

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Feb

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Tottenham

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Fulham

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Leeds

A

1

0

W

U

N


Leicester in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leicester in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance as a guest.
Leicester, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 31 points, 73.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Arsenal

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Feb

Aston Villa

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Liverpool

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Wolves

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Fulham

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Leeds

H

1

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Everton

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Brighton is -0.096 and for the Leicester is 0.218.
The home dynamic for the Brighton is -0.624 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leicester is 0.667.
The offensive ability for the Brighton is 0.091 and for the Leicester is 0.657.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brighton is 0.084 and for the Leicester is -0.43.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brighton and the red line for guest team, Leicester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brighton

34%

26%

28%

12%

Leicester

23%

32%

24%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.18 goals and Leicester to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.18 goals and Leicester to score 1.43 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

4.07

1

5.95

2-3

2.08

2

4.37

4+

3.64

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.07

5

11.36

Ov 2.5

1.90

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.11

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.64

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.10

3.15

2.28

2-3 goals

2.68

5.71

2.21

4+ goals

3.99

2.96

2.43

Ov 1.5

3.04

4.27

2.29

Un 1.5

4.10

3.15

2.28

Ov 2.5

2.84

5.66

2.12

Un 2.5

3.86

2.93

2.50

Ov 3.5

3.99

2.96

2.43

Un 3.5

3.04

4.48

2.23

Goal-Goal

3.25

2.89

2.89

No Goal

3.25

6.28

1.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.72

4.59

2.41

NG+Un 2.5

3.18

6.28

2.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Aston Villa vs Wolves at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Wolves for Premier League (England), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aston Villa

2.48

1.77

16.2

Draw

3.34

3.98

-4.8

Wolves

3.10

5.41

-13.8

Over 2.5

2.18

2.12

1.3

Under 2.5

1.74

1.89

-4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Over 2.5 (16.2 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aston Villa in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance at home.
Aston Villa, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Sheffield United

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Leeds

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Arsenal

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

West Ham

H

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Southampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Burnley

A

2

3

L

O

G


Wolves in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance as a guest.
Wolves, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Man City

A

1

4

L

O

G

27 Feb

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Feb

Leeds

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Southampton

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Leicester

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Arsenal

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Crystal Palace

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Jan

Chelsea

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Aston Villa is -0.17 and for the Wolves is 0.21.
The home dynamic for the Aston Villa is -0.183 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wolves is -0.135.
The offensive ability for the Aston Villa is 0.118 and for the Wolves is 0.657.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Aston Villa is 0.172 and for the Wolves is -0.356.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Wolves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aston Villa

15%

38%

22%

25%

Wolves

42%

36%

15%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.25 goals and Wolves to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.57 goals and Wolves to score 0.87 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

3.62

1

4.67

2-3

1.98

2

3.97

4+

4.55

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.62

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.98