# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sheffield United vs Southampton at 06 March 2021**** Burnley vs Arsenal at 06 March 2021**** Brighton vs Leicester at 06 March 2021**** Aston Villa vs Wolves at 06 March 2021**** Man City vs Man United at 07 March 2021**** West Brom vs Newcastle at 07 March 2021**** Liverpool vs Fulham at 07 March 2021**** Tottenham vs Crystal Palace at 07 March 2021**** West Ham vs Leeds at 08 March 2021**** Chelsea vs Everton at 08 March 2021**

###
Sheffield United vs Southampton at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield United** and **Southampton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield United |
3.63 |
2.67 |
9.9 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.68 |
-2.0 |

Southampton |
2.12 |
2.83 |
-11.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.10 |
2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.91 |
-6.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sheffield United, Over 2.5 (9.9 %, 2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield United,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Feb |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Feb |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Man United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Southampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Mar |
Everton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Man United |
A |
0 |
9 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.333** and for the **Southampton** is **-0.992.**

The home dynamic for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.796** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Southampton** is **0.189.**

The offensive ability for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.273** and for the **Southampton** is **-0.202.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.533** and for the **Southampton** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield United** and the red line for guest team, **Southampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield United |
27% |
35% |
24% |
14% |

Southampton |
29% |
34% |
21% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **0.93 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the guest team **Southampton ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.65 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.18 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.65 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.63 |
3.51 |
2.98 |

2-3 goals |
2.52 |
3.98 |
2.84 |

4+ goals |
3.10 |
3.32 |
2.66 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.74 |
2.78 |

Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.51 |
2.98 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |
6.63 |
2.33 |

Un 2.5 |
3.00 |
2.61 |
3.53 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.10 |
3.32 |
2.66 |

Un 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.80 |
2.89 |

Goal-Goal |
3.26 |
2.67 |
3.14 |

No Goal |
2.24 |
6.17 |
2.56 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |
5.50 |
2.40 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.17 |
2.70 |

####
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###
Burnley vs Arsenal at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burnley** and **Arsenal** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burnley |
5.53 |
3.51 |
10.4 |

Draw |
3.97 |
3.94 |
0.2 |

Arsenal |
1.65 |
2.17 |
-14.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.94 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.07 |
-4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burnley, Draw (10.4 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burnley** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burnley** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance** at home**.

Burnley,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
West Brom |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Arsenal** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Arsenal** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance** as a guest**.

Arsenal,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

28 Feb |
Leicester |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Leeds |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Burnley** is **-0.037** and for the **Arsenal** is **-0.226.**

The home dynamic for the **Burnley** is **-0.054** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Arsenal** is **0.135.**

The offensive ability for the **Burnley** is **0.118** and for the **Arsenal** is **-0.116.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Burnley** is **-0.233** and for the **Arsenal** is **-0.726.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burnley** and the red line for guest team, **Arsenal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burnley |
35% |
26% |
33% |
6% |

Arsenal |
22% |
32% |
25% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **0.74 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the guest team **Arsenal ** to win by **1.03** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.46 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the guest team **Arsenal ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
4.10 |

1 |
5.99 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.21 |
3.17 |
2.24 |

2-3 goals |
2.60 |
6.06 |
2.22 |

4+ goals |
7.17 |
2.72 |
2.03 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.33 |
4.27 |
2.15 |

Un 1.5 |
4.21 |
3.17 |
2.24 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.34 |
5.42 |
1.94 |

Un 2.5 |
3.69 |
3.04 |
2.49 |

Ov 3.5 |
7.17 |
2.72 |
2.03 |

Un 3.5 |
2.98 |
4.66 |
2.23 |

Goal-Goal |
3.63 |
2.87 |
2.66 |

No Goal |
3.39 |
6.38 |
1.83 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.04 |
4.48 |
2.23 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.07 |
6.38 |
2.07 |

####
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###
Brighton vs Leicester at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brighton** and **Leicester** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brighton |
2.61 |
3.24 |
-7.4 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.94 |
-5.3 |

Leicester |
2.85 |
2.29 |
8.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.21 |
1.90 |
7.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.11 |
-11.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leicester, Over 2.5 (8.6 %, 7.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brighton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brighton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance** at home**.

Brighton,** at home**, had one win, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Feb |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Leicester** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leicester** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance** as a guest**.

Leicester,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 31 points, 73.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Aston Villa |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Liverpool |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Everton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Brighton** is **-0.096** and for the **Leicester** is **0.218.**

The home dynamic for the **Brighton** is **-0.624** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leicester** is **0.667.**

The offensive ability for the **Brighton** is **0.091** and for the **Leicester** is **0.657.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Brighton** is **0.084** and for the **Leicester** is **-0.43.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brighton** and the red line for guest team, **Leicester. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brighton |
34% |
26% |
28% |
12% |

Leicester |
23% |
32% |
24% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brighton** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Leicester** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brighton** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Leicester** to score **1.43 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
3.64 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
11.36 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.64 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.10 |
3.15 |
2.28 |

2-3 goals |
2.68 |
5.71 |
2.21 |

4+ goals |
3.99 |
2.96 |
2.43 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.04 |
4.27 |
2.29 |

Un 1.5 |
4.10 |
3.15 |
2.28 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.84 |
5.66 |
2.12 |

Un 2.5 |
3.86 |
2.93 |
2.50 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.99 |
2.96 |
2.43 |

Un 3.5 |
3.04 |
4.48 |
2.23 |

Goal-Goal |
3.25 |
2.89 |
2.89 |

No Goal |
3.25 |
6.28 |
1.88 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.72 |
4.59 |
2.41 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.18 |
6.28 |
2.06 |

####
Go to Top

###
Aston Villa vs Wolves at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Aston Villa** and **Wolves** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **06 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Aston Villa |
2.48 |
1.77 |
16.2 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.98 |
-4.8 |

Wolves |
3.10 |
5.41 |
-13.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.12 |
1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.89 |
-4.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aston Villa, Over 2.5 (16.2 %, 1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** at home**.

Aston Villa,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Mar |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolves,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
Man City |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Feb |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.17** and for the **Wolves** is **0.21.**

The home dynamic for the **Aston Villa** is **-0.183** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wolves** is **-0.135.**

The offensive ability for the **Aston Villa** is **0.118** and for the **Wolves** is **0.657.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Aston Villa** is **0.172** and for the **Wolves** is **-0.356.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Aston Villa** and the red line for guest team, **Wolves. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Aston Villa |
15% |
38% |
22% |
25% |

Wolves |
42% |
36% |
15% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.98 |