2021 03 05 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sp Lisbon vs Santa Clara at 05 March 2021
Pacos Ferreira vs Nacional at 05 March 2021
Gil Vicente vs Porto at 06 March 2021
Boavista vs Famalicao at 06 March 2021
Portimonense vs Tondela at 06 March 2021
Maritimo vs Moreirense at 07 March 2021
Rio Ave vs Farense at 07 March 2021
Belenenses vs Benfica at 08 March 2021


Sp Lisbon vs Santa Clara at 05 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Lisbon and Santa Clara for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 05 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Lisbon

1.42

1.77

-13.9

Draw

4.36

4.02

1.9

Santa Clara

7.96

5.41

5.9

Over 2.5

1.99

2.42

-8.9

Under 2.5

1.84

1.71

4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Santa Clara, Under 2.5 (1.9 %, 5.9 %, 4.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance at home.
Sp Lisbon, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 26 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Porto

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Portimonense

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Benfica

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Boavista

A

2

0

W

U

N

15 Jan

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G


Santa Clara in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance as a guest.
Santa Clara, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Sp Braga

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Feb

Farense

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Feb

Belenenses

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Jan

Rio Ave

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Famalicao

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Sp Lisbon is 0.8 and for the Santa Clara is 0.056.
The home dynamic for the Sp Lisbon is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Santa Clara is 0.234.
The offensive ability for the Sp Lisbon is 0.518 and for the Santa Clara is 0.167.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Lisbon is 1 and for the Santa Clara is -0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Lisbon and the red line for guest team, Santa Clara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Lisbon

22%

32%

25%

21%

Santa Clara

52%

26%

19%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.9 goals and Santa Clara to score 0.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.46 goals and Santa Clara to score 0.74 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.93

0-1

2.99

1

4.50

2-3

2.02

2

3.97

4+

5.88

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

8.85

Un 1.5

2.99

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.42

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.65

Ov 3.5

5.88

NoG

1.61

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.01

2.98

5.96

2-3 goals

1.64

5.98

4.51

4+ goals

1.77

3.15

8.50

Ov 1.5

1.67

4.86

5.12

Un 1.5

2.01

2.98

5.96

Ov 2.5

1.53

7.67

4.65

Un 2.5

1.99

3.01

6.04

Ov 3.5

1.77

3.15

8.50

Un 3.5

1.77

4.26

5.00

Goal-Goal

2.36

2.76

4.67

No Goal

1.54

5.55

5.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

5.46

3.64

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

5.55

5.19


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pacos Ferreira vs Nacional at 05 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Nacional for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 05 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pacos Ferreira

1.80

1.72

2.6

Draw

3.40

4.15

-5.3

Nacional

4.63

5.65

-3.9

Over 2.5

2.32

2.03

6.2

Under 2.5

1.63

1.97

-10.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (2.6 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Santa Clara

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Feb

Guimaraes

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Feb

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Portimonense

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Feb

Tondela

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Maritimo

A

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Sp Braga

H

2

0

W

U

N


Nacional in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance as a guest.
Nacional, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Sp Braga

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Belenenses

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Farense

H

2

3

L

O

G

09 Feb

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Feb

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Famalicao

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Jan

Benfica

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Jan

Guimaraes

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.096 and for the Nacional is -0.371.
The home dynamic for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.699 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nacional is -0.135.
The offensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.3 and for the Nacional is 0.657.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.621 and for the Nacional is -0.385.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Nacional.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pacos Ferreira

16%

30%

27%

26%

Nacional

41%

40%

11%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.45 goals and Nacional to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.63 goals and Nacional to score 0.86 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.89

1

5.26

2-3

1.95

2

3.98

4+

4.35

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.89

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.07

3.84

3.89

2-3 goals

1.59

4.16

7.76

4+ goals

1.72

4.51

5.11

Ov 1.5

1.62

4.26

6.68

Un 1.5

2.07

3.84

3.89

Ov 2.5

1.41

9.63

5.34

Un 2.5

2.18

2.67

5.98

Ov 3.5

1.72

4.51

5.11

Un 3.5

1.72

4.05

5.83

Goal-Goal

2.05

2.84

6.27

No Goal

1.49

7.52

5.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.54

7.29

4.71

NG+Un 2.5

1.65

7.52

4.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Gil Vicente vs Porto at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gil Vicente and Porto for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Gil Vicente

6.37

3.85

10.3

Draw

3.91

3.76

1.0

Porto

1.53

2.11

-18.0

Over 2.5

2.08

2.11

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.74

1.90

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gil Vicente, Draw (10.3 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Gil Vicente in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance at home.
Gil Vicente, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Tondela

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Santa Clara

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Portimonense

A

1

4

L

O

G

09 Feb

Sp Lisbon

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Feb

Boavista

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Jan

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Maritimo

H

0

1

L

U

N


Porto in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance as a guest.
Porto, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Sp Lisbon

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Boavista

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Feb

Sp Braga

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Feb

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

Rio Ave

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Jan

Farense

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Jan

Benfica

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Gil Vicente is -0.333 and for the Porto is 0.258.
The home dynamic for the Gil Vicente is -0.763 and the dynamic as a guest for the Porto is 0.649.
The offensive ability for the Gil Vicente is 0.518 and for the Porto is 0.202.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Gil Vicente is -0.559 and for the Porto is -0.037.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gil Vicente and the red line for guest team, Porto.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Gil Vicente

35%

37%

18%

10%

Porto

22%

34%

23%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 0.63 goals and Porto to score 1.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.02 goals and Porto to score 1.43 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.56

1

4.93

2-3

2.05

2

4.05

4+

4.29

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.56

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.29

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.39

3.60

2.34

2-3 goals

4.03

3.84

2.03

4+ goals

4.09

3.82

2.03

Ov 1.5

4.05

3.84

2.03

Un 1.5

3.39

3.60

2.34

Ov 2.5

3.41

7.77

1.73

Un 2.5

4.33

2.58

2.63

Ov 3.5

4.09

3.82

2.03

Un 3.5

3.77

3.75

2.14

Goal-Goal

4.32

2.69

2.52

No Goal

3.44

6.36

1.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.24

6.21

1.89

NG+Un 2.5

3.29

6.36

2.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Boavista vs Famalicao at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boavista and Famalicao for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boavista

2.35

2.32

0.6

Draw

3.12

3.64

-4.6

Famalicao

3.13

3.39

-2.5

Over 2.5

2.29

2.17

2.4

Under 2.5

1.61

1.85

-8.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Boavista, Over 2.5 (0.6 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boavista in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance at home.
Boavista, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Feb

Guimaraes

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Feb

Moreirense

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Porto

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Feb

Nacional

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Portimonense

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Tondela

A

1

3

L

O

G


Famalicao in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance as a guest.
Famalicao, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Farense

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Rio Ave

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Feb

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Feb

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Feb

Moreirense

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Nacional

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Guimaraes

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Santa Clara

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Boavista is -0.185 and for the Famalicao is -0.371.
The home dynamic for the Boavista is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Famalicao is -0.36.
The offensive ability for the Boavista is 0.609 and for the Famalicao is -0.571.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Boavista is -0.559 and for the Famalicao is 0.111.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Famalicao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boavista

25%

34%

23%

18%

Famalicao

32%

40%

15%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.21 goals and Famalicao to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.33 goals and Famalicao to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.41

1

4.74

2-3

2.08

2

4.05

4+

4.39

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.41

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-