2021 03 05 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Espanol vs Oviedo at 05 March 2021
Leganes vs Castellon at 06 March 2021
Albacete vs Logrones at 06 March 2021
Zaragoza vs Tenerife at 06 March 2021
Las Palmas vs Vallecano at 06 March 2021
Ponferradina vs Sp Gijon at 07 March 2021
Mallorca vs Cartagena at 07 March 2021
Malaga vs Sabadell at 07 March 2021
Girona vs Almeria at 07 March 2021
Lugo vs Fuenlabrada at 08 March 2021
Alcorcon vs Mirandes at 08 March 2021


Espanol vs Oviedo at 05 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Espanol and Oviedo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 05 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Espanol

1.75

1.82

-2.2

Draw

3.31

3.98

-5.1

Oviedo

5.22

4.98

0.9

Over 2.5

2.42

2.14

5.4

Under 2.5

1.56

1.88

-10.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oviedo, Over 2.5 (0.9 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Espanol in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Espanol in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance at home.
Espanol, at home, had 10 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 79.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Sp Gijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Sabadell

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Mallorca

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Feb

Lugo

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Vallecano

H

2

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Girona

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Castellon

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Las Palmas

A

0

1

L

U

N


Oviedo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance as a guest.
Oviedo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Feb

Fuenlabrada

A

2

2

D

O

G

15 Feb

Lugo

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Cartagena

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Albacete

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Logrones

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Malaga

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Mallorca

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Espanol is 0.074 and for the Oviedo is -0.024.
The home dynamic for the Espanol is 0.581 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oviedo is 0.126.
The offensive ability for the Espanol is 0.664 and for the Oviedo is -0.03.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Espanol is -0.559 and for the Oviedo is -0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Espanol and the red line for guest team, Oviedo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Espanol

18%

34%

27%

22%

Oviedo

41%

35%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.44 goals and Oviedo to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.53 goals and Oviedo to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.66

1

4.98

2-3

1.96

2

3.88

4+

4.65

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.66

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.96

3.79

4.40

2-3 goals

1.74

4.26

5.21

4+ goals

1.87

3.64

5.24

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.06

5.22

Un 1.5

1.96

3.79

4.40

Ov 2.5

1.57

7.93

4.25

Un 2.5

2.14

2.77

5.84

Ov 3.5

1.87

3.64

5.24

Un 3.5

1.81

4.08

4.90

Goal-Goal

2.33

2.72

4.96

No Goal

1.52

7.12

4.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.75

6.20

3.73

NG+Un 2.5

1.66

7.12

4.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leganes vs Castellon at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leganes and Castellon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leganes

1.61

1.87

-8.6

Draw

3.68

3.92

-1.7

Castellon

6.20

4.78

4.8

Over 2.5

2.33

2.14

3.8

Under 2.5

1.63

1.88

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Castellon, Over 2.5 (4.8 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leganes in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leganes in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance at home.
Leganes, at home, had 12 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 85.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leganes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Feb

Cartagena

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Feb

Tenerife

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Albacete

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Girona

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Lugo

H

3

2

W

O

G

24 Jan

Las Palmas

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Fuenlabrada

A

0

0

D

U

N


Castellon in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Castellon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance as a guest.
Castellon, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 17.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 10 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Las Palmas

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Girona

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Feb

Fuenlabrada

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Mirandes

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Almeria

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Jan

Sp Gijon

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Espanol

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Jan

Tenerife

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Leganes is 0.607 and for the Castellon is -0.452.
The home dynamic for the Leganes is 0.688 and the dynamic as a guest for the Castellon is -0.378.
The offensive ability for the Leganes is 0.518 and for the Castellon is 0.631.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leganes is -0.207 and for the Castellon is -0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leganes and the red line for guest team, Castellon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leganes

18%

34%

27%

21%

Castellon

40%

36%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.58 goals and Castellon to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Leganes to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.51 goals and Castellon to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Leganes to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.68

1

5.00

2-3

1.96

2

3.85

4+

4.61

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.68

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

3.78

4.25

2-3 goals

1.78

4.19

5.01

4+ goals

1.92

3.56

5.05

Ov 1.5

1.82

3.98

5.02

Un 1.5

2.00

3.78

4.25

Ov 2.5

1.60

7.67

4.11

Un 2.5

2.19

2.74

5.60

Ov 3.5

1.92

3.56

5.05

Un 3.5

1.85

4.04

4.72

Goal-Goal

2.37

2.69

4.83

No Goal

1.55

7.04

4.74

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.78

6.08

3.64

NG+Un 2.5

1.69

7.04

4.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Albacete vs Logrones at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Albacete and Logrones for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Albacete

2.34

2.32

0.4

Draw

2.96

3.55

-5.6

Logrones

3.35

3.48

-1.1

Over 2.5

2.68

2.40

4.4

Under 2.5

1.45

1.72

-10.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Albacete, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Albacete in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance at home.
Albacete, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Feb

Sabadell

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Sp Gijon

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Leganes

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Feb

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Oviedo

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Alcorcon

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Jan

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G


Logrones in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance as a guest.
Logrones, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Feb

Lugo

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Alcorcon

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Sp Gijon

H

0

4

L

O

N

01 Feb

Sabadell

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Oviedo

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Jan

Zaragoza

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Mirandes

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Albacete is -0.237 and for the Logrones is -0.669.
The home dynamic for the Albacete is -0.462 and the dynamic as a guest for the Logrones is -0.099.
The offensive ability for the Albacete is -0.336 and for the Logrones is -0.888.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Albacete is -0.181 and for the Logrones is -0.43.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Albacete and the red line for guest team, Logrones.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Albacete

26%

35%

25%

14%

Logrones

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Albacete to score 1.11 goals and Logrones to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Albacete to score 1.26 goals and Logrones to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.17

1

4.50

2-3

2.01

2

3.73

4+

5.32

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.17

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.39

3.25

2-3 goals

2.18

3.86

3.53

4+ goals

2.41

3.13

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.63

3.59

Un 1.5

2.52

3.39

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.97

2.99

Un 2.5

2.74

2.63

3.94

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.13

3.76

Un 3.5

2.30

3.66

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.52

4.03

No Goal

2.00

5.65

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.78

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.65

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Zaragoza vs Tenerife at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Tenerife for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zaragoza

2.47

2.07

7.8

Draw

2.85

3.70

-8.1

Tenerife

3.26

4.03

-5.9

Over 2.5

2.77

2.25

8.3

Under 2.5

1.45

1.80

-13.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Zaragoza, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 8.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zaragoza in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance at home.
Zaragoza, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Oviedo

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Alcorcon

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Feb

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Malaga

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Ponferradina

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Jan

Albacete

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Jan

Logrones

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Cartagena

A

1

1

D

U

G


Tenerife in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tenerife in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance as a guest.
Tenerife, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Alcorcon

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Leganes

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Ponferradina

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Vallecano

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Fuenlabrada

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Lugo

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Cartagena

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Jan

Castellon

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Zaragoza is -0.207 and for the Tenerife is 0.137.
The home dynamic for the Zaragoza is -0.29 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tenerife is -0.387.
The offensive ability for the Zaragoza is -0.273 and for the Tenerife is 0.253.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Zaragoza is -0.648 and for the Tenerife is -0.333.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zaragoza and the red line for guest team, Tenerife.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zaragoza

22%

34%

26%

17%

Tenerife

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.07 goals and Tenerife to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.95 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.39 goals and Tenerife to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Zaragoza to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.45

1

4.78

2-3

1.97

2

3.77

4+

4.93

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.45

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.93

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-