2021 03 05 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Udinese vs Sassuolo at 06 March 2021
Spezia vs Benevento at 06 March 2021
Juventus vs Lazio at 06 March 2021
Verona vs Milan at 07 March 2021
Sampdoria vs Cagliari at 07 March 2021
Roma vs Genoa at 07 March 2021
Crotone vs Torino at 07 March 2021
Fiorentina vs Parma at 07 March 2021
Napoli vs Bologna at 07 March 2021
Inter vs Atalanta at 08 March 2021


Udinese vs Sassuolo at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Udinese and Sassuolo for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Udinese

2.50

2.64

-2.1

Draw

3.38

3.79

-3.2

Sassuolo

2.84

2.80

0.5

Over 2.5

1.91

2.02

-2.9

Under 2.5

1.92

1.98

-1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sassuolo (0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Udinese in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance at home.
Udinese, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Milan

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Fiorentina

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Parma

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Roma

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Feb

Verona

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Spezia

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Inter

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Atalanta

H

1

1

D

U

G


Sassuolo in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance as a guest.
Sassuolo, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Napoli

H

3

3

D

O

G

20 Feb

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Spezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Cagliari

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Jan

Parma

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Jan

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Udinese is 0.311 and for the Sassuolo is -0.226.
The home dynamic for the Udinese is -0.548 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sassuolo is 0.333.
The offensive ability for the Udinese is 0.609 and for the Sassuolo is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Udinese is 0.119 and for the Sassuolo is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Udinese and the red line for guest team, Sassuolo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Udinese

28%

32%

24%

16%

Sassuolo

30%

30%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.33 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.28 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.76

1

5.49

2-3

2.08

2

4.20

4+

3.92

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.76

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.71

3.17

3.17

2-3 goals

2.45

4.90

2.58

4+ goals

3.00

3.11

2.90

Ov 1.5

2.62

4.08

2.68

Un 1.5

2.71

3.17

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.40

6.06

2.39

Un 2.5

2.93

2.77

3.36

Ov 3.5

3.00

3.11

2.90

Un 3.5

2.54

4.10

2.76

Goal-Goal

3.17

2.80

3.05

No Goal

2.26

5.92

2.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.55

4.95

2.46

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

5.92

2.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spezia vs Benevento at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Benevento for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

2.11

2.30

-3.9

Draw

3.57

3.79

-1.6

Benevento

3.45

3.32

1.1

Over 2.5

1.85

1.97

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.99

2.03

-1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Benevento (1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Juventus

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Feb

Fiorentina

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Milan

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Sassuolo

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Udinese

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Roma

A

3

4

L

O

G

16 Jan

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N


Benevento in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance as a guest.
Benevento, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Verona

H

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Napoli

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Roma

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Feb

Bologna

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Sampdoria

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Inter

A

0

4

L

O

N

22 Jan

Torino

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Crotone

A

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Spezia is -0.2 and for the Benevento is -0.653.
The home dynamic for the Spezia is -0.645 and the dynamic as a guest for the Benevento is 0.108.
The offensive ability for the Spezia is -0.245 and for the Benevento is -0.605.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spezia is -0.621 and for the Benevento is -0.652.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Benevento.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

27%

21%

36%

16%

Benevento

35%

27%

26%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.54 goals and Benevento to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Spezia to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.41 goals and Benevento to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.64

0-1

4.17

1

6.85

2-3

2.03

2

3.97

4+

3.75

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.17

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

3.75

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.29

2.55

3.29

2-3 goals

1.79

8.63

3.08

4+ goals

3.07

2.36

3.99

Ov 1.5

2.10

4.46

3.34

Un 1.5

3.29

2.55

3.29

Ov 2.5

2.12

4.49

3.27

Un 2.5

2.51

3.26

3.39

Ov 3.5

3.07

2.36

3.99

Un 3.5

2.10

4.85

3.14

Goal-Goal

2.60

2.80

3.87

No Goal

2.08

5.56

2.95

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

3.71

3.41

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

5.56

3.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Juventus vs Lazio at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Lazio for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.93

2.01

-2.1

Draw

3.64

3.82

-1.3

Lazio

4.04

4.13

-0.5

Over 2.5

1.73

2.07

-9.5

Under 2.5

2.16

1.93

5.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 80.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Spezia

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Feb

Crotone

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Napoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Bologna

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Inter

A

0

2

L

U

N


Lazio in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance as a guest.
Lazio, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Bologna

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Sampdoria

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Inter

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Atalanta

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Sassuolo

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Jan

Roma

H

3

0

W

O

N

10 Jan

Parma

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Juventus is 0.496 and for the Lazio is 0.194.
The home dynamic for the Juventus is 0.527 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lazio is 0.432.
The offensive ability for the Juventus is 0.609 and for the Lazio is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Juventus is 0.559 and for the Lazio is -0.311.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Lazio.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

24%

22%

35%

19%

Lazio

42%

24%

26%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.75 goals and Lazio to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.48 goals and Lazio to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

3.94

1

6.58

2-3

1.98

2

3.77

4+

4.12

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.94

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

1.78

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

2.49

4.38

2-3 goals

1.63

9.33

3.57

4+ goals

2.59

2.29

5.65

Ov 1.5

1.85

4.67

4.06

Un 1.5

2.70

2.49

4.38

Ov 2.5

1.88

4.55

4.02

Un 2.5

2.15

3.33

4.25

Ov 3.5

2.59

2.29

5.65

Un 3.5

1.88

4.86

3.81

Goal-Goal

2.47

2.75

4.31

No Goal

1.76

5.50

4.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

3.64

3.78

NG+Un 2.5

1.93

5.50

3.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Verona vs Milan at 07 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Verona and Milan for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 07 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Verona

3.58

2.86

7.0

Draw

3.42

3.77

-2.7

Milan

2.13

2.60

-8.5

Over 2.5

1.96

2.09

-3.2

Under 2.5

1.91

1.92

-0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Verona (7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Verona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance at home.
Verona, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Benevento

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Genoa

A

2

2

D

O

G

15 Feb

Parma

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Udinese

A

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Roma

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Jan

Napoli

H

3

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Bologna

A

0

1

L

U

N


Milan in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milan in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance as a guest.
Milan, as a guest, had 10 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 31 points, 86.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Udinese

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Roma

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Inter

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Spezia

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Feb

Crotone

H

4

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Bologna

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Atalanta

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Jan

Cagliari

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Verona is 0.074 and for the Milan is 0.056.
The home dynamic for the Verona is -0.194 and the dynamic as a guest for the Milan is 1.
The offensive ability for the Verona is 0.636 and for the Milan is 0.227.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Verona is -0.533 and for the Milan is -0.704.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Verona and the red line for guest team, Milan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Verona

29%

36%

20%

14%

Milan

31%

28%

25%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Verona to score 1.03 goals and Milan to score 1.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Milan to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Verona to score 1.19 goals and Milan to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

3.51

1

5.15

2-3

2.10

2

4.22

4+

4.17

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.51

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at