2021 03 05 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Monza vs Pordenone at 06 March 2021
Virtus Entella vs Ascoli at 06 March 2021
Venezia vs Brescia at 06 March 2021
Cosenza vs Frosinone at 06 March 2021
Pescara vs Spal at 06 March 2021
Cremonese vs Salernitana at 06 March 2021
Pisa vs Reggina at 06 March 2021
Reggiana vs Lecce at 07 March 2021
Empoli vs Cittadella at 07 March 2021


Monza vs Pordenone at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monza and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monza

1.70

2.11

-11.4

Draw

3.51

3.48

0.2

Pordenone

5.15

4.15

4.7

Over 2.5

2.15

2.44

-5.5

Under 2.5

1.68

1.69

-0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Pordenone (0.2 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monza in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance at home.
Monza, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Frosinone

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Cittadella

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Chievo

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Feb

Pisa

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Vicenza

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Empoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Spal

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Jan

Brescia

A

1

0

W

U

N


Pordenone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance as a guest.
Pordenone, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Chievo

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Cittadella

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Spal

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Vicenza

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Lecce

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Cosenza

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Monza is 0.163 and for the Pordenone is -0.653.
The home dynamic for the Monza is 0.441 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pordenone is 0.36.
The offensive ability for the Monza is 0.155 and for the Pordenone is -0.227.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Monza is -0.145 and for the Pordenone is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monza and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monza

21%

41%

21%

17%

Pordenone

37%

40%

16%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monza to score 1.57 goals and Pordenone to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monza to score 1.34 goals and Pordenone to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.16

1

4.24

2-3

2.00

2

3.65

4+

5.43

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.69

Un 1.5

3.16

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

5.43

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.09

3.95

3.72

2-3 goals

2.24

3.09

4.36

4+ goals

1.90

4.00

4.49

Ov 1.5

2.13

3.29

4.39

Un 1.5

2.09

3.95

3.72

Ov 2.5

1.68

8.93

3.40

Un 2.5

2.59

2.44

4.92

Ov 3.5

1.90

4.00

4.49

Un 3.5

2.18

3.38

4.08

Goal-Goal

2.75

2.38

4.63

No Goal

1.73

6.32

3.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

7.24

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

1.88

6.32

3.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Virtus Entella vs Ascoli at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Virtus Entella

2.63

2.45

2.8

Draw

2.97

3.64

-6.2

Ascoli

2.85

3.14

-3.2

Over 2.5

2.23

2.19

0.8

Under 2.5

1.65

1.84

-6.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella, Over 2.5 (2.8 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Virtus Entella in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Lecce

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Venezia

A

2

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Frosinone

H

2

3

L

O

G

10 Feb

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Feb

Reggiana

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Cosenza

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Jan

Pisa

H

2

1

W

O

G


Ascoli in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 17.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Pisa

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Salernitana

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Reggiana

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Frosinone

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Lecce

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Brescia

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Chievo

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Virtus Entella is -0.615 and for the Ascoli is -0.516.
The home dynamic for the Virtus Entella is -0.559 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ascoli is -0.505.
The offensive ability for the Virtus Entella is 0.155 and for the Ascoli is -0.227.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Virtus Entella is -0.533 and for the Ascoli is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Virtus Entella

24%

37%

25%

14%

Ascoli

33%

34%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.16 goals and Ascoli to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.28 goals and Ascoli to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.51

1

4.88

2-3

2.02

2

3.88

4+

4.55

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.51

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.36

3.56

3.39

2-3 goals

2.32

3.93

3.17

4+ goals

2.97

3.19

2.86

Ov 1.5

2.49

3.67

3.07

Un 1.5

2.36

3.56

3.39

Ov 2.5

2.23

6.62

2.50

Un 2.5

2.67

2.64

4.05

Ov 3.5

2.97

3.19

2.86

Un 3.5

2.34

3.79

3.25

Goal-Goal

3.17

2.61

3.32

No Goal

1.98

6.15

3.00

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.39

5.54

2.50

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

6.15

3.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Venezia vs Brescia at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Brescia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

1.94

2.20

-6.1

Draw

3.31

3.76

-3.6

Brescia

3.90

3.57

2.4

Over 2.5

1.99

2.19

-4.6

Under 2.5

1.79

1.84

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brescia (2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Mar

Reggiana

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Empoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Virtus Entella

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cremonese

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Frosinone

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Vicenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N


Brescia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance as a guest.
Brescia, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 30.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Cosenza

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Virtus Entella

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Cremonese

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Chievo

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Cittadella

H

3

3

D

O

G

30 Jan

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Jan

Monza

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Venezia is 0.815 and for the Brescia is 0.113.
The home dynamic for the Venezia is -0.097 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brescia is -0.081.
The offensive ability for the Venezia is 1 and for the Brescia is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Venezia is -0.621 and for the Brescia is -0.281.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Brescia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

21%

41%

21%

18%

Brescia

38%

31%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.51 goals and Brescia to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.35 goals and Brescia to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.36

1

4.57

2-3

2.07

2

4.07

4+

4.55

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.36

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.94

3.77

4.58

2-3 goals

2.30

3.83

3.29

4+ goals

2.44

3.61

3.19

Ov 1.5

2.34

3.76

3.25

Un 1.5

1.94

3.77

4.58

Ov 2.5

2.06

7.49

2.63

Un 2.5

2.34

2.65

5.08

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.61

3.19

Un 3.5

2.15

3.81

3.68

Goal-Goal

3.19

2.63

3.27

No Goal

1.70

6.46

3.89

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.37

5.98

2.43

NG+Un 2.5

1.80

6.46

3.91


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cosenza vs Frosinone at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cosenza and Frosinone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cosenza

2.90

2.42

6.8

Draw

2.88

3.40

-5.3

Frosinone

2.69

3.42

-7.9

Over 2.5

2.45

2.43

0.3

Under 2.5

1.51

1.70

-7.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cosenza, Over 2.5 (6.8 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cosenza in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cosenza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance at home.
Cosenza, at home, had one win, 8 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Brescia

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Chievo

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Lecce

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Feb

Reggina

H

2

2

D

O

G

09 Feb

Cittadella

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Spal

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Virtus Entella

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Pordenone

H

0

0

D

U

N


Frosinone in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance as a guest.
Frosinone, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Mar

Monza

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Feb

Cremonese

A

0

4

L

O

N

19 Feb

Pescara

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Virtus Entella

A

3

2

W

O

G

09 Feb

Ascoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Venezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

Pisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Empoli

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Cosenza is -0.185 and for the Frosinone is -0.266.
The home dynamic for the Cosenza is -0.677 and the dynamic as a guest for the Frosinone is 0.135.
The offensive ability for the Cosenza is 0.518 and for the Frosinone is 0.167.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cosenza is -0.559 and for the Frosinone is -0.652.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cosenza and the red line for guest team, Frosinone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cosenza

26%

37%

25%

12%

Frosinone

31%

43%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cosenza to score 1.01 goals and Frosinone to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cosenza to score 1.24 goals and Frosinone to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.28

1

4.42

2-3

1.94

2

3.52

4+

5.62

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.87

Un 1.5

3.28

5

24.39

Ov 2.5

2.44

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-