2021 03 05 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

OFI Crete vs Larisa at 06 March 2021
Giannina vs Panathinaikos at 06 March 2021
Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis at 06 March 2021
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC at 07 March 2021
PAOK vs Aris at 07 March 2021
AEK vs Apollon at 08 March 2021


OFI Crete vs Larisa at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between OFI Crete and Larisa for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

OFI Crete

1.78

2.35

-13.6

Draw

3.45

3.44

0.1

Larisa

4.77

3.53

7.4

Over 2.5

2.18

2.72

-9.1

Under 2.5

1.70

1.58

4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Larisa, Under 2.5 (0.1 %, 7.4 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

OFI Crete in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance at home.
OFI Crete, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Giannina

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Volos NFC

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

AEK

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Panathinaikos

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

PAOK

H

0

3

L

O

N


Larisa in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance as a guest.
Larisa, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 15.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Lamia

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Atromitos

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

AEK

H

2

4

L

O

G

30 Jan

Volos NFC

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Jan

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Apollon

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the OFI Crete is -1 and for the Larisa is -0.395.
The home dynamic for the OFI Crete is -0.441 and the dynamic as a guest for the Larisa is -0.658.
The offensive ability for the OFI Crete is -0.545 and for the Larisa is -0.09.
Finally, the defensive ability for the OFI Crete is -1 and for the Larisa is -0.311.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, OFI Crete and the red line for guest team, Larisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

OFI Crete

32%

33%

20%

15%

Larisa

42%

34%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.53 goals and Larisa to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team OFI Crete to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.17 goals and Larisa to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.41

0-1

2.62

1

4.07

2-3

2.17

2

3.98

4+

6.33

3

4.78

Ov 1.5

1.62

4

9.26

Un 1.5

2.62

5

25.00

Ov 2.5

2.72

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.58

Gg

2.54

Ov 3.5

6.33

NoG

1.65

Un 3.5

1.19

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

2.82

3.53

2-3 goals

2.18

4.18

3.31

4+ goals

2.05

3.43

4.51

Ov 1.5

2.15

3.96

3.55

Un 1.5

2.76

2.82

3.53

Ov 2.5

1.79

7.98

3.16

Un 2.5

2.86

2.58

3.81

Ov 3.5

2.05

3.43

4.51

Un 3.5

2.41

3.43

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.53

4.15

No Goal

2.14

4.48

3.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

6.17

2.99

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

4.48

3.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Giannina vs Panathinaikos at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Giannina and Panathinaikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Giannina

2.99

2.51

6.4

Draw

3.03

3.57

-5.0

Panathinaikos

2.44

3.11

-8.8

Over 2.5

2.54

2.46

1.3

Under 2.5

1.53

1.68

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Giannina, Over 2.5 (6.4 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Giannina in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Giannina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance at home.
Giannina, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Giannina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Lamia

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

OFI Crete

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Feb

PAOK

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Feb

Panetolikos

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Atromitos

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Jan

AEK

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Volos NFC

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Olympiakos

A

0

1

L

U

N


Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance as a guest.
Panathinaikos, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

AEK

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Feb

Panetolikos

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Olympiakos

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Atromitos

A

3

2

W

O

G

30 Jan

Lamia

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Volos NFC

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

OFI Crete

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Aris

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Giannina is 0.163 and for the Panathinaikos is 0.218.
The home dynamic for the Giannina is -0.559 and the dynamic as a guest for the Panathinaikos is 0.288.
The offensive ability for the Giannina is -0.273 and for the Panathinaikos is 0.227.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Giannina is 0.233 and for the Panathinaikos is -0.43.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Giannina and the red line for guest team, Panathinaikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Giannina

32%

32%

25%

12%

Panathinaikos

38%

33%

16%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Giannina to score 0.96 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Giannina to score 1.17 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.40

0-1

2.91

1

4.44

2-3

2.13

2

4.00

4+

5.35

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

8.33

Un 1.5

2.91

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.35

Ov 3.5

5.35

NoG

1.74

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.89

2.89

3.25

2-3 goals

2.12

4.42

3.30

4+ goals

3.22

3.46

2.49

Ov 1.5

2.35

4.10

3.02

Un 1.5

2.89

2.89

3.25

Ov 2.5

2.19

7.52

2.43

Un 2.5

2.79

2.64

3.81

Ov 3.5

3.22

3.46

2.49

Un 3.5

2.39

3.61

3.28

Goal-Goal

3.02

2.66

3.41

No Goal

2.23

4.82

2.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.27

5.93

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

4.82

3.13


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis at 06 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atromitos

2.96

2.76

2.4

Draw

2.83

3.48

-6.6

Asteras Tripolis

2.56

2.85

-4.0

Over 2.5

2.40

2.57

-2.8

Under 2.5

1.56

1.64

-3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Atromitos (2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atromitos in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance at home.
Atromitos, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Aris

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Larisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

2

3

L

O

G

31 Jan

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Jan

Panetolikos

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Olympiakos

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

AEK

A

1

2

L

O

G


Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance as a guest.
Asteras Tripolis, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Feb

PAOK

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

AEK

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Lamia

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Volos NFC

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Aris

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

OFI Crete

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Larisa

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Panetolikos

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Atromitos is -0.385 and for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.613.
The home dynamic for the Atromitos is 0.172 and the dynamic as a guest for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.045.
The offensive ability for the Atromitos is 0.518 and for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.597.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Atromitos is -0.648 and for the Asteras Tripolis is -0.059.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atromitos and the red line for guest team, Asteras Tripolis.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atromitos

37%

28%

26%

10%

Asteras Tripolis

35%

33%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.01 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.09 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.75

0-1

2.87

1

4.55

2-3

2.09

2

3.82

4+

5.81

3

4.63

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

8.70

Un 1.5

2.87

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.58

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.64

Gg

2.44

Ov 3.5

5.81

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.60

2.71

2.84

2-3 goals

2.28

5.20

2.72

4+ goals

3.13

2.65

3.31

Ov 1.5

2.45

4.14

2.85

Un 1.5

3.60

2.71

2.84

Ov 2.5

2.22

5.97

2.62

Un 2.5

3.27

2.76

3.01

Ov 3.5

3.13

2.65

3.31

Un 3.5

2.69

3.74

2.77

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.61

3.65

No Goal

2.66

4.57

2.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

4.88

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.78

4.57

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Panetolikos vs Volos NFC at 07 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panetolikos and Volos NFC for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 07 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panetolikos

2.07

2.58

-9.5

Draw

3.33

3.42

-0.8

Volos NFC

3.75

3.12

5.4

Over 2.5

2.30

2.69

-6.3

Under 2.5

1.65

1.59

2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Volos NFC, Under 2.5 (5.4 %, 2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Panetolikos in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance at home.
Panetolikos, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Larisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Aris

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Feb

Giannina

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

PAOK

A

0

5

L

O

N

28 Jan

Atromitos

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Lamia

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

2

L

U

N


Volos NFC in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance as a guest.
Volos NFC, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Mar

Olympiakos

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Apollon

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

OFI Crete

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Larisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Panathinaikos

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Jan

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Lamia

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Panetolikos is -0.319 and for the Volos NFC is -0.234.
The home dynamic for the Panetolikos is -0.505 and the dynamic as a guest for the Volos NFC is -0.108.
The offensive ability for the Panetolikos is -0.273 and for the Volos NFC is -0.03.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Panetolikos is -0.145 and for the Volos NFC is -0.333.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panetolikos and the red line for guest team, Volos NFC.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panetolikos

35%

32%

21%

12%

Volos NFC

39%

34%

17%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.34 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Panetolikos to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.1 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.35

0-1

2.65

1

4.13

2-3

2.18

2

4.00

4+

6.13

3

4.78

Ov 1.5

1.61

4

9.17

Un 1.5

2.65

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.69

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.59

Gg

2.52

Ov 3.5

6.13

NoG

1.66

Un 3.5

1.19

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.00

2.78

3.26

2-3 goals