2021 03 06 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

AEK Athens vs Mesologgi BC at 06 March 2021
Aris vs Larissa BC at 06 March 2021
Peristeri vs Iraklis at 06 March 2021
PAOK vs Promitheas at 06 March 2021
Kolossos Rhodes vs Panathinaikos at 07 March 2021
Ionikos Nikaias vs GS Lavrio at 07 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



AEK Athens vs Mesologgi BC at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and Mesologgi BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

AEK Athens

1.06

1.18

Mesologgi BC

9

6.66

AEK Athens HC

-17.5

-9.50

Mesologgi BC HC

+17.5

9.50

Point Line

150.5

146.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

H

Peristeri

W

91

59

10

4

W 1

93

62

Jan 30

A

Larisa

L

75

76

9

4

L 1

71

77

Jan 27

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

56

9

3

W 2

72

55

Jan 23

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

81

74

8

3

W 1

77

74

Jan 16

H

Promitheas Patras

L

75

82

7

3

L 2

75

86

Jan 10

A

Panathinaikos

L

75

80

7

2

L 1

81

70

Jan 2

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

89

72

7

1

W 1

91

71

Dec 27

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

78

6

1

L 1

72

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mesologgi BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

H

Peristeri

L

63

70

4

11

L 2

65

73

Feb 6

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

85

100

4

10

L 1

81

100

Jan 30

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

87

77

4

9

W 1

89

76

Jan 23

A

Aris

L

48

77

3

9

L 9

45

78

Jan 9

A

P.A.O.K.

L

87

96

3

8

L 8

82

94

Jan 3

H

Promitheas Patras

L

82

88

3

7

L 7

82

92

Dec 27

A

Larisa

L

58

84

3

6

L 6

55

85

Dec 20

H

Panathinaikos

L

66

73

3

5

L 5

71

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mesologgi BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mesologgi BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by AEK Athens (in the first graph) and by Mesologgi BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, AEK Athens will expected to score 80 points and the Mesologgi BC 71 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

AEK Athens

Mesologgi BC

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

17.30

16.30

DRB

21.70

22.90

AST-TO

1.40

1.09

TRB

32.00

29.20

FTM

15.70

13.60

BL

3.30

1.50

FTA

20.90

19.10

PF-Fewer

22.60

19.40

ST

6.70

6.10

TO-Fewer

12.40

14.90

Ftper

0.75

0.71

ORBper

0.47

0.28

ORB

10.30

6.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Aris vs Larissa BC at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Larissa BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aris

1.55

1.51

Larissa BC

2.45

2.96

Aris HC

-3.5

-5.00

Larissa BC HC

+3.5

5.00

Point Line

150.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

A

Panathinaikos

L

72

94

4

10

L 2

78

82

Feb 6

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

89

94

4

9

L 1

92

90

Jan 23

H

Messolonghi

W

77

48

4

8

W 1

74

51

Jan 17

H

Panathinaikos

L

75

93

3

8

L 5

81

82

Jan 9

H

Peristeri

L

71

84

3

7

L 4

73

88

Jan 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

64

68

3

6

L 3

61

68

Dec 26

H

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

84

3

5

L 2

75

83

Dec 20

A

AEK Athens

L

67

84

3

4

L 1

73

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

H

P.A.O.K.

L

88

91

4

11

L 2

83

89

Feb 6

A

Promitheas Patras

L

63

81

4

10

L 1

63

85

Jan 30

H

AEK Athens

W

76

75

4

9

W 1

83

72

Jan 24

H

Panathinaikos

L

89

98

3

9

L 2

96

86

Jan 11

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

58

66

3

8

L 1

60

63

Jan 6

H

Promitheas Patras

W

85

81

3

7

W 1

85

85

Jan 2

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

69

73

2

7

L 1

70

79

Dec 27

H

Messolonghi

W

84

58

2

6

W 1

81

61

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aris (in the first graph) and by Larissa BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aris will expected to score 79 points and the Larissa BC 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aris

Larissa BC

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

13.80

13.80

DRB

21.40

22.50

AST-TO

1.05

0.89

TRB

30.70

31.10

FTM

16.90

13.90

BL

1.90

1.70

FTA

22.90

18.40

PF-Fewer

22.00

22.30

ST

8.10

6.40

TO-Fewer

13.10

15.50

Ftper

0.74

0.76

ORBper

0.43

0.38

ORB

9.30

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Peristeri vs Iraklis at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peristeri and Iraklis for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Peristeri

1.23

1.11

Iraklis

4.3

10.21

Peristeri HC

-8.5

-11.00

Iraklis HC

+8.5

11.00

Point Line

144.5

144.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

A

Messolonghi

W

70

63

9

6

W 1

68

66

Feb 6

A

AEK Athens

L

59

91

8

6

L 1

65

87

Jan 30

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

70

8

5

W 1

82

70

Jan 23

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

65

80

7

5

L 1

66

79

Jan 9

A

Aris

W

84

71

7

4

W 2

79

72

Jan 3

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

67

6

4

W 1

72

66

Dec 26

A

Promitheas Patras

L

58

75

5

4

L 1

58

79

Dec 19

H

Larisa

W

82

78

5

3

W 1

77

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Iraklis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

75

78

5

9

L 4

71

78

Feb 6

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

61

84

5

8

L 3

62

83

Jan 23

A

P.A.O.K.

L

72

79

5

7

L 2

68

77

Jan 10

A

Promitheas Patras

L

61

85

5

6

L 1

61

89

Jan 2

H

Larisa

W

73

69

5

5

W 1

69

70

Dec 27

A

Panathinaikos

L

74

106

4

5

L 3

80

93

Dec 19

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

60

77

4

4

L 2

62

74

Dec 12

H

AEK Athens

L

72

79

4

3

L 1

79

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Iraklis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Iraklis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Peristeri (in the first graph) and by Iraklis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Peristeri will expected to score 74 points and the Iraklis 72 points. The total points line estimated to be at 146.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Peristeri

Iraklis

FG%

0.49

0.50

ASS

16.20

15.10

DRB

24.40

24.20

AST-TO

1.22

1.07

TRB

32.70

31.60

FTM

16.30

12.90

BL

2.40

2.20

FTA

20.30

18.70

PF-Fewer

20.30

21.60

ST

5.60

5.60

TO-Fewer

13.30

14.10

Ftper

0.80

0.69

ORBper

0.34

0.31

ORB

8.30

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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PAOK vs Promitheas at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Promitheas for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

PAOK

2.63

2.02

Promitheas

1.61

1.98

PAOK HC

+3.5

1.00

Promitheas HC

-3.5

-1.00

Point Line

152.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

A

Larisa

W

91

88

7

7

W 1

86

89

Jan 30

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

77

84

6

7

L 2

79

80

Jan 27

A

AEK Athens

L

56

76

6

6

L 1

61

73

Jan 23

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

79

72

6

5

W 2

80

78

Jan 9

H

Messolonghi

W

96

87

5

5

W 1

93

92

Jan 3

A

Peristeri

L

67

76

4

5

L 1

69

80

Dec 27

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

84

4

4

W 3

82

84

Dec 19

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

85

84

3

4

W 2

86

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

H

Larisa

W

81

63

9

4

W 3

76

64

Jan 31

A

Panathinaikos

W

80

78

8

4

W 2

86

68

Jan 23

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

90

88

7

4

W 1

93

84

Jan 20

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

72

75

6

4

L 1

74

72

Jan 16

A

AEK Athens

W

82

75

6

3

W 2

90

72

Jan 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

85

61

5

3

W 1

86

66

Jan 6

A

Larisa

L

81

85

4

3

L 1

76

86

Jan 3

A

Messolonghi

W

88

82

4

2

W 2

85

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by PAOK (in the first graph) and by Promitheas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, PAOK will expected to score 77 points and the Promitheas 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

PAOK

Promitheas

FG%

0.54

0.53

ASS

14.90

16.50

DRB

22.40

22.20

AST-TO

1.06

1.26

TRB

30.10

28.20

FTM

14.40

14.70

BL

1.70

3.40

FTA

18.80

20.60

PF-Fewer

23.30

18.50

ST

7.60

6.90

TO-Fewer

14.10

13.10

Ftper

0.76

0.71

ORBper

0.34

0.27

ORB

7.60

5.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Kolossos Rhodes vs Panathinaikos at 07 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Kolossos Rhodes and Panathinaikos for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 07 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Kolossos Rhodes

7

15.11

Panathinaikos

1.1

1.07

Kolossos Rhodes HC

+13.5

11.50

Panathinaikos HC

-13.5

-11.50

Point Line

162.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

84

61

6

8

W 1

85

66

Jan 30

A

Messolonghi

L

77

87

5

8

L 1

74

92

Jan 23

H

Peristeri

W

80

65

5

7

W 2

82

68

Jan 9

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

94

74

4

7

W 1

89

74