2021 03 06 Israeli Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Rishon at 06 March 2021
Galil Gilboa vs Hapoel Holon at 06 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Rishon at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hapoel Jerusalem and Maccabi Rishon for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Hapoel Jerusalem

1.28

1.28

Maccabi Rishon

3.6

4.57

Hapoel Jerusalem HC

-7.5

-8.00

Maccabi Rishon HC

+7.5

8.00

Point Line

172.5

168.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Jerusalem are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 1

A

Ironi Nahariya

W

87

80

10

4

W 1

78

85

Feb 7

A

Hapoel Gilboa Galil

L

75

81

9

4

L 2

81

85

Feb 4

A

Hapoel Haifa

L

99

101

9

3

L 1

95

94

Feb 1

H

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

W

94

66

9

2

W 2

97

66

Jan 29

A

Maccabi Haifa

W

94

75

8

2

W 1

84

81

Dec 31

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

80

101

7

2

L 2

89

94

Dec 28

H

Ironi Nes Ziona

L

83

99

7

1

L 1

87

102

Dec 15

A

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

W

83

81

7

0

W 6

86

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Rishon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

H

Hapoel Eilat

L

90

95

5

8

L 3

89

90

Feb 7

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

77

105

5

7

L 2

86

98

Feb 4

H

Ironi Nahariya

L

91

93

5

6

L 1

81

99

Jan 31

A

Ironi Nahariya

W

110

88

5

5

W 1

98

93

Jan 24

H

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

L

62

70

4

5

L 2

64

70

Dec 30

H

Hapoel Gilboa Galil

L

69

71

4

4

L 1

74

75

Dec 14

H

Ironi Nes Ziona

W

79

74

4

3

W 2

82

76

Dec 10

A

Hapoel Tel Aviv

W

91

85

3

3

W 1

92

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Jerusalem and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Rishon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Rishon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Jerusalem.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Hapoel Jerusalem (in the first graph) and by Maccabi Rishon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Hapoel Jerusalem will expected to score 88 points and the Maccabi Rishon 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 172.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Hapoel Jerusalem

Maccabi Rishon

FG%

0.56

0.54

ASS

21.40

18.40

DRB

22.90

23.90

AST-TO

2.02

1.56

TRB

31.90

31.80

FTM

14.30

14.20

BL

3.00

1.50

FTA

18.80

19.80

PF-Fewer

20.40

20.20

ST

7.10

6.80

TO-Fewer

10.60

11.80

Ftper

0.76

0.72

ORBper

0.40

0.33

ORB

9.10

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Galil Gilboa vs Hapoel Holon at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Galil Gilboa and Hapoel Holon for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Galil Gilboa

1.87

3.62

Hapoel Holon

1.9

1.38

Galil Gilboa HC

-1.5

6.50

Hapoel Holon HC

+1.5

-6.50

Point Line

166.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galil Gilboa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

A

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

L

60

83

10

4

L 1

62

83

Feb 13

H

Ironi Nahariya

W

92

79

10

3

W 3

82

84

Feb 7

H

Hapoel Jerusalem

W

81

75

9

3

W 2

83

72

Jan 29

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

79

70

8

3

W 1

88

65

Jan 26

H

Maccabi Haifa

L

77

78

7

3

L 1

69

84

Dec 30

A

Maccabi Rishon LeZion

W

71

69

7

2

W 1

69

68

Dec 24

A

Ironi Nes Ziona

L

74

88

6

2

L 1

77

91

Dec 7

A

Bnei Herzliya

W

95

89

6

1

W 1

91

87

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Holon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 14

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

81

100

8

6

L 1

90

93

Feb 6

A

Hapoel Eilat

W

83

77

8

5

W 1

82

73

Feb 3

H

Ironi Nes Ziona

L

90

92

7

5

L 1

94

95

Jan 30

A

Bnei Herzliya

W

85

71

7

4

W 2

81

69

Jan 27

H

Ironi Nahariya

W

98

76

6

4

W 1

87

81

Jan 24

A

Hapoel Haifa

L

85

96

5

4

L 1

82

90

Dec 29

H

Hapoel Tel Aviv

W

77

63

5

3

W 5

78

68

Dec 23

H

Hapoel Haifa

W

96

88

4

3

W 4

92

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galil Gilboa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Holon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Holon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galil Gilboa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Galil Gilboa (in the first graph) and by Hapoel Holon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Galil Gilboa will expected to score 81 points and the Hapoel Holon 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Galil Gilboa

Hapoel Holon

FG%

0.51

0.57

ASS

16.80

18.30

DRB

25.50

19.90

AST-TO

1.16

1.37

TRB

35.60

27.90

FTM

16.00

16.90

BL

3.90

2.10

FTA

20.90

21.10

PF-Fewer

22.90

22.30

ST

6.00

8.40

TO-Fewer

14.50

13.40

Ftper

0.76

0.80

ORBper

0.40

0.40

ORB

10.10

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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