2021 03 06 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Varese vs Sassari at 06 March 2021
Virtus Bologna vs Reyer Venezia at 06 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Varese vs Sassari at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Varese and Sassari for Serie A, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Varese

3.45

3.92

Sassari

1.31

1.34

Varese HC

+6.5

7.00

Sassari HC

-6.5

-7.00

Point Line

174.5

170.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Varese are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

A

Virtus Bologna

L

76

85

6

14

L 3

81

80

Feb 14

H

Fortitudo Bologna

L

67

79

6

13

L 2

67

82

Feb 10

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

83

98

6

12

L 1

82

97

Feb 7

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

110

105

6

11

W 2

103

100

Feb 4

H

Enel Brindisi

W

76

74

5

11

W 1

79

70

Jan 31

A

Red October Cantu

L

82

97

4

11

L 6

81

99

Jan 27

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

83

108

4

10

L 5

86

109

Dec 27

H

Universo Treviso

L

79

80

4

9

L 4

72

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

96

88

14

5

W 8

102

88

Feb 6

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

89

79

13

5

W 7

89

82

Jan 24

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

103

82

12

5

W 6

106

83

Jan 17

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

99

74

11

5

W 5

101

72

Jan 10

H

Red October Cantu

W

98

92

10

5

W 4

97

94

Jan 3

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

85

78

9

5

W 3

86

83

Dec 27

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

100

87

8

5

W 2

99

86

Dec 23

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

75

7

5

W 1

89

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Varese and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Sassari.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Sassari and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Varese.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Varese (in the first graph) and by Sassari in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Varese will expected to score 83 points and the Sassari 90 points. The total points line estimated to be at 173.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Varese

Sassari

FG%

0.50

0.59

ASS

15.30

19.40

DRB

25.00

25.40

AST-TO

1.28

1.37

TRB

34.90

33.20

FTM

15.20

17.70

BL

1.70

1.90

FTA

20.40

23.00

PF-Fewer

21.10

18.60

ST

5.70

8.20

TO-Fewer

12.00

14.20

Ftper

0.74

0.77

ORBper

0.40

0.31

ORB

10.00

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Virtus Bologna vs Reyer Venezia at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Reyer Venezia for Serie A, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Virtus Bologna

1.21

1.17

Reyer Venezia

4.5

7.01

Virtus Bologna HC

-9.5

-9.50

Reyer Venezia HC

+9.5

9.50

Point Line

163.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

85

76

13

6

W 3

79

76

Feb 7

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

62

12

6

W 2

90

66

Jan 30

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

88

75

11

6

W 1

82

72

Jan 23

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

89

90

10

6

L 1

88

89

Jan 17

A

Red October Cantu

W

91

82

10

5

W 3

90

84

Jan 9

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

92

85

9

5

W 2

93

89

Dec 30

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

100

80

8

5

W 1

102

78

Dec 27

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

68

73

7

5

L 1

74

66

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

88

96

13

7

L 1

86

84

Feb 7

H

Red October Cantu

W

80

75

13

6

W 6

79

77

Jan 31

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

78

65

12

6

W 5

79

64

Jan 24

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

88

84

11

6

W 4

82

80

Jan 17

A

Enel Brindisi

W

89

77

10

6

W 3

92

73

Jan 10

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

95

75

9

6

W 2

96

80

Jan 3

A

Universo Treviso

W

88

86

8

6

W 1

80

83

Dec 27

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

72

76

7

6

L 1

72

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reyer Venezia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reyer Venezia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Reyer Venezia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 81 points and the Reyer Venezia 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Virtus Bologna

Reyer Venezia

FG%

0.56

0.55

ASS

22.90

17.60

DRB

26.10

24.70

AST-TO

1.70

1.30

TRB

34.90

33.30

FTM

12.90

11.60

BL

2.50

2.70

FTA

17.40

17.20

PF-Fewer

19.90

21.80

ST

7.90

6.90

TO-Fewer

13.50

13.50

Ftper

0.74

0.67

ORBper

0.34

0.35

ORB

8.90

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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