2021 03 06 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Zaragoza vs Joventut Badalona at 06 March 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Gipuzkoa at 06 March 2021
Gran Canaria vs Estudiantes at 06 March 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Andorra at 06 March 2021
Valencia vs Manresa at 07 March 2021
Murcia vs Real Madrid at 07 March 2021
Obradoiro vs Baskonia at 07 March 2021
Bilbao vs Real Betis at 07 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Zaragoza vs Joventut Badalona at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Joventut Badalona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zaragoza

1.55

2.24

Joventut Badalona

2.45

1.80

Zaragoza HC

-3.5

2.50

Joventut Badalona HC

+3.5

-2.50

Point Line

172.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

85

82

10

13

W 3

83

87

Feb 6

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

83

70

9

13

W 2

80

72

Feb 3

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

79

73

8

13

W 1

77

76

Jan 31

A

Baskonia

L

61

89

7

13

L 1

65

88

Jan 23

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

96

73

7

12

W 3

91

76

Jan 16

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

105

85

6

12

W 2

103

86

Jan 2

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

96

95

5

12

W 1

94

101

Dec 27

H

Baskonia

L

89

92

4

12

L 2

95

91

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

62

80

12

10

L 1

69

75

Feb 7

A

UCAM Murcia

W

91

84

12

9

W 2

88

84

Jan 30

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

80

75

11

9

W 1

78

76

Jan 16

H

Acunsa GBC

L

90

94

10

9

L 4

84

104

Jan 10

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

85

96

10

8

L 3

83

101

Jan 4

H

Valencia Basket

L

80

91

10

7

L 2

82

87

Dec 27

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

78

95

10

6

L 1

80

88

Dec 23

H

UCAM Murcia

W

104

93

10

5

W 1

101

93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zaragoza (in the first graph) and by Joventut Badalona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zaragoza will expected to score 85 points and the Joventut Badalona 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zaragoza

Joventut Badalona

FG%

0.54

0.55

ASS

15.90

15.40

DRB

23.50

18.70

AST-TO

1.21

1.29

TRB

30.80

27.90

FTM

15.10

13.50

BL

2.60

2.50

FTA

20.70

17.00

PF-Fewer

20.70

20.60

ST

6.70

8.40

TO-Fewer

13.10

11.90

Ftper

0.73

0.79

ORBper

0.31

0.49

ORB

7.30

9.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Fuenlabrada vs Gipuzkoa at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Gipuzkoa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fuenlabrada

1.23

1.36

Gipuzkoa

4.3

3.75

Fuenlabrada HC

-9.5

-6.50

Gipuzkoa HC

+9.5

6.50

Point Line

163.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

A

Baskonia

L

74

90

6

16

L 3

79

89

Feb 7

H

Unicaja

L

68

85

6

15

L 2

68

81

Jan 30

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

75

80

6

14

L 1

73

79

Jan 23

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

102

81

6

13

W 1

100

85

Jan 16

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

85

105

5

13

L 3

80

107

Jan 3

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

67

83

5

12

L 2

75

78

Dec 27

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

79

86

5

11

L 1

77

91

Dec 22

A

Unicaja

W

90

84

5

10

W 1

90

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

74

97

5

17

L 1

70

101

Feb 10

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

81

79

5

16

W 1

79

82

Jan 24

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

68

110

4

16

L 1

76

104

Jan 16

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

94

90

4

15

W 2

92

88

Jan 10

H

Iberostar Tenerife

W

89

87

3

15

W 1

92

80

Jan 2

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

80

81

2

15

L 4

76

84

Dec 29

H

Manresa

L

71

78

2

14

L 3

69

78

Dec 27

A

Valencia Basket

L

75

101

2

13

L 2

77

96

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fuenlabrada (in the first graph) and by Gipuzkoa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fuenlabrada will expected to score 84 points and the Gipuzkoa 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fuenlabrada

Gipuzkoa

FG%

0.51

0.48

ASS

14.20

13.90

DRB

21.00

19.70

AST-TO

1.02

1.01

TRB

31.30

29.80

FTM

15.60

10.10

BL

3.20

1.90

FTA

20.90

14.30

PF-Fewer

21.40

19.90

ST

8.00

8.50

TO-Fewer

13.90

13.80

Ftper

0.75

0.70

ORBper

0.49

0.51

ORB

10.30

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Gran Canaria vs Estudiantes at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gran Canaria and Estudiantes for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gran Canaria

1.35

2

Estudiantes

3.25

2

Gran Canaria HC

-6.5

1

Estudiantes HC

+6.5

1

Point Line

163.5

159

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

H

Manresa

W

83

77

8

14

W 1

81

77

Jan 31

A

Real Madrid

L

80

81

7

14

L 3

86

76

Jan 23

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

81

102

7

13

L 2

79

103

Jan 16

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

87

108

7

12

L 1

90

100

Jan 10

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

96

85

7

11

W 1

94

84

Jan 2

A

Valencia Basket

L

85

101

6

11

L 1

87

96

Dec 27

A

Manresa

W

71

64

6

10

W 4

69

64

Dec 22

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

78

54

5

10

W 3

76

57

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Estudiantes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

91

87

6

15

W 1

88

90

Feb 27

A

Unicaja

L

77

91

5

15

L 7

77

87

Feb 10

A

Acunsa GBC

L

79

81

5

14

L 6

74

90

Feb 7

H

Real Madrid

L

65

79

5

13

L 5

70

74

Feb 3

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

73

79

5

12

L 4

69

80

Dec 29

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

64

90

5

11

L 3

66

83

Dec 20

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

73

81

5

10

L 2

76

84

Dec 13

H

Valencia Basket

L

81

86

5

9

L 1

83

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Estudiantes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Estudiantes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gran Canaria (in the first graph) and by Estudiantes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gran Canaria will expected to score 80 points and the Estudiantes 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gran Canaria

Estudiantes

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

15.10

13.80

DRB

20.50

21.60

AST-TO

1.22

1.11

TRB

29.00

30.50

FTM

11.50

11.50

BL

2.70

3.20

FTA

16.30

15.10

PF-Fewer

19.50

23.50

ST

7.60

6.50

TO-Fewer

12.40

12.40

Ftper

0.71

0.76

ORBper

0.42

0.42

ORB

8.60

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


San Pablo Burgos vs Andorra at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between San Pablo Burgos and Andorra for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

San Pablo Burgos

1.32

2.19

Andorra

3.4

1.84

San Pablo Burgos HC

-7.5

2.00

Andorra HC

+7.5

-2.00

Point Line

162.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

A

Real Madrid

L

81

96

15

7

L 1

87

90

Jan 31

A

Manresa

W

101

87

15

6

W 2

98

87

Jan 23

A

UCAM Murcia

W

81

75

14

6

W 1

78

75

Jan 17

H

Valencia Basket

L

78

83

13

6

L 1

80

79

Jan 9

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

85

76

13

5

W 5

83

81

Jan 3

H

Unicaja

W

95

83

12

5

W 4

94

79

Dec 29

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

96

86

11

5

W 3

91

89

Dec 27

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

95

78

10

5

W 2

93

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

H

Valencia Basket

W

84

72

10

11

W 2

86

68

Feb 9

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

90

71

9

11

W 1

87

73

Jan 30

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

83

89

8

11

L 2

86

82

Jan 24

A

Real Madrid

L

79

86

8

10

L 1

85

81

Jan 17

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

72

70

8

9

W 1

68

73

Jan 4

H

Real Madrid

L

69

75

7

9

L 3

74

71

Jan 2

A

Baskonia

L

67

84

7

8

L 2

72

83

Dec 27

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

81

93

7

7

L 1

84

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by San Pablo Burgos (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, San Pablo Burgos will expected to score 82 points and the Andorra 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

San Pablo Burgos

Andorra

FG%

0.51

0.53

ASS

15.30

16.10

DRB

22.10

23.50

AST-TO

1.03

1.19

TRB

32.50

33.10

FTM

15.50

13.00

BL

2.10

3.10

FTA

19.90

17.30

PF-Fewer

19.00

20.90

ST

7.00

6.60

TO-Fewer

14.90

13.50

Ftper

0.78

0.75

ORBper

0.47

0.41

ORB

10.30

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Valencia vs Manresa at 07 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Manresa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 07 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Valencia

1.23

1.74

Manresa

4.3

2.36

Valencia HC

-8.5

-3.00

Manresa HC

+8.5

3.00

Point Line

167.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

72

84

16

7

L 1

75

87

Feb 6

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

89

81

16

6

W 12

87

86

Jan 31

A

Unicaja

W

89

85

15

6

W 11

89

81

Jan 24

H