2021 03 06 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Karsiyaka vs Buyukcekmece at 06 March 2021
Galatasaray vs Darussafaka at 06 March 2021
Ormanspor vs Tofas at 06 March 2021
Besiktas vs Petkim Spor at 06 March 2021
Fenerbahce vs Turk Telekom at 07 March 2021
Afyon Belediye vs Anadolu Efes at 07 March 2021
Fethiye Belediye vs Gaziantep at 07 March 2021
Bursaspor vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 07 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Karsiyaka vs Buyukcekmece at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Karsiyaka and Buyukcekmece for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Karsiyaka

1.1

1.26

Buyukcekmece

6.5

4.79

Karsiyaka HC

-13.5

-8.00

Buyukcekmece HC

+13.5

8.00

Point Line

161.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

A

Bahcesehir

W

96

83

18

4

W 2

94

82

Feb 9

H

Turk Telekom

W

80

69

17

4

W 1

79

74

Feb 6

A

Darussafaka

L

77

86

16

4

L 1

80

87

Jan 31

H

Tofas

W

90

71

16

3

W 11

88

66

Jan 24

A

Socar Spor

W

85

75

15

3

W 10

86

75

Jan 17

H

Gaziantep

W

72

65

14

3

W 9

78

70

Jan 9

A

Fethiye

W

86

78

13

3

W 8

79

82

Jan 2

A

Besiktas

W

84

72

12

3

W 7

86

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

H

Afyon

W

95

83

8

14

W 1

90

82

Feb 9

H

Anadolu Efes

L

83

94

7

14

L 7

91

85

Feb 6

A

Bahcesehir

L

74

83

7

13

L 6

73

82

Jan 31

H

Turk Telekom

L

75

86

7

12

L 5

74

92

Jan 23

A

Darussafaka

L

82

85

7

11

L 4

85

86

Jan 16

H

Tofas

L

75

88

7

10

L 3

74

82

Jan 10

A

Socar Spor

L

77

98

7

9

L 2

78

98

Jan 7

A

Bursaspor

L

81

89

7

8

L 1

77

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Karsiyaka (in the first graph) and by Buyukcekmece in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Karsiyaka will expected to score 84 points and the Buyukcekmece 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Karsiyaka

Buyukcekmece

FG%

0.55

0.50

ASS

19.30

18.20

DRB

24.50

23.10

AST-TO

1.62

1.50

TRB

34.10

32.90

FTM

17.30

14.50

BL

1.90

2.10

FTA

23.80

18.50

PF-Fewer

19.00

20.90

ST

6.40

5.90

TO-Fewer

11.90

12.10

Ftper

0.73

0.79

ORBper

0.40

0.42

ORB

9.70

9.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Galatasaray vs Darussafaka at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Galatasaray and Darussafaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Galatasaray

2.2

3.79

Darussafaka

1.65

1.36

Galatasaray HC

+2.5

7.00

Darussafaka HC

-2.5

-7.00

Point Line

159.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galatasaray are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

A

Tofas

L

89

98

7

15

L 3

87

92

Feb 10

H

Socar Spor

L

65

89

7

14

L 2

66

89

Feb 6

A

Gaziantep

L

61

68

7

13

L 1

66

73

Jan 30

H

Fethiye

W

71

68

7

12

W 1

65

72

Jan 23

A

Besiktas

L

64

82

6

12

L 1

65

80

Jan 16

H

Ormanspor

W

89

87

6

11

W 1

81

93

Jan 10

A

Anadolu Efes

L

80

90

5

11

L 2

88

82

Jan 2

H

Fenerbahce

L

73

87

5

10

L 1

77

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

H

Fenerbahce

L

64

66

11

11

L 1

68

62

Feb 10

A

Bursaspor

W

70

68

11

10

W 2

67

70

Feb 6

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

86

77

10

10

W 1

94

74

Feb 3

A

Socar Spor

L

70

78

9

10

L 2

70

78

Jan 30

A

Afyon

L

79

80

9

9

L 1

75

79

Jan 23

H

Buyukcekmece

W

85

82

9

8

W 3

81

82

Jan 17

A

Bahcesehir

W

85

76

8

8

W 2

84

75

Jan 10

H

Turk Telekom

W

84

72

7

8

W 1

83

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galatasaray and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galatasaray.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Galatasaray (in the first graph) and by Darussafaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Galatasaray will expected to score 79 points and the Darussafaka 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Galatasaray

Darussafaka

FG%

0.54

0.50

ASS

18.80

18.00

DRB

21.50

21.50

AST-TO

1.48

1.54

TRB

29.20

32.50

FTM

13.40

16.10

BL

2.60

2.90

FTA

17.90

20.50

PF-Fewer

18.10

23.00

ST

6.00

8.10

TO-Fewer

12.70

11.70

Ftper

0.75

0.79

ORBper

0.36

0.51

ORB

7.70

11.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Ormanspor vs Tofas at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ormanspor and Tofas for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ormanspor

3.85

3.64

Tofas

1.25

1.38

Ormanspor HC

+7.5

6.50

Tofas HC

-7.5

-6.50

Point Line

168.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ormanspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

A

Socar Spor

L

76

83

5

17

L 7

76

83

Feb 11

H

Gaziantep

L

81

82

5

16

L 6

88

88

Feb 7

A

Fethiye

L

89

98

5

15

L 5

82

103

Feb 1

H

Besiktas

L

68

92

5

14

L 4

69

89

Jan 23

A

Anadolu Efes

L

75

95

5

13

L 3

82

86

Jan 16

A

Galatasaray

L

87

89

5

12

L 2

83

90

Jan 9

H

Fenerbahce

L

63

72

5

11

L 1

67

67

Jan 3

H

Bursaspor

W

84

80

5

10

W 1

80

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

H

Galatasaray

W

98

89

13

9

W 3

93

90

Feb 10

A

Fenerbahce

W

84

81

12

9

W 2

89

76

Feb 7

H

Bursaspor

W

84

77

11

9

W 1

80

79

Jan 31

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

71

90

10

9

L 1

78

87

Jan 27

H

Socar Spor

W

88

80

10

8

W 1

89

80

Jan 24

H

Afyon

L

83

85

9

8

L 1

78

84

Jan 16

A

Buyukcekmece

W

88

75

9

7

W 4

84

75

Jan 9

H

Bahcesehir

W

87

80

8

7

W 3

86

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ormanspor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ormanspor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ormanspor (in the first graph) and by Tofas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ormanspor will expected to score 80 points and the Tofas 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Ormanspor

Tofas

FG%

0.52

0.56

ASS

18.10

21.30

DRB

20.50

22.00

AST-TO

1.62

1.84

TRB

28.00

30.60

FTM

14.30

13.00

BL

2.50

3.00

FTA

19.20

16.90

PF-Fewer

16.50

21.10

ST

4.40

7.90

TO-Fewer

11.20

11.60

Ftper

0.74

0.77

ORBper

0.37

0.39

ORB

7.50

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Besiktas vs Petkim Spor at 06 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Besiktas and Petkim Spor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 06 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Besiktas

1.36

1.47

Petkim Spor

3.1

3.13

Besiktas HC

-6.5

-5.50

Petkim Spor HC

+6.5

5.50

Point Line

160.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Besiktas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

A

Gaziantep

W

84

77

12

10

W 2

91

82

Feb 10

H

Fethiye

W

76

65

11

10

W 1

70

68

Feb 7

A

Anadolu Efes

L

80

84

10

10

L 1

88

76

Feb 1

A

Ormanspor

W

92

68

10

9

W 3

84

73

Jan 23

H

Galatasaray

W

82

64

9

9

W 2

78

65

Jan 17

A

Fenerbahce

W

92

83

8

9

W 1

97

77

Jan 9

H

Bursaspor

L

69

84

7

9

L 2

66

86

Jan 2

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

72

84

7

8

L 1

79

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Petkim Spor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

H

Ormanspor

W

83

76

9

13

W 2

76

81

Feb 10

A

Galatasaray

W

89

65

8

13

W 1

85

66

Feb 7

H

Fenerbahce

L

67

80

7

13

L 1

71

75

Feb 3

H

Darussafaka

W

78

70

7

12

W 1

81

70

Jan 30

A

Bursaspor

L

89

95

6

12

L 4

85

98

Jan 27

A

Tofas

L

80

88

6

11

L 3

79

82

Jan 24

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

75

85

6

10

L 2

82

82

Jan 16

A

Afyon

L

76

94

6

9

L 1

72

93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Besiktas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Petkim Spor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Petkim Spor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Besiktas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Besiktas (in the first graph) and by Petkim Spor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Besiktas will expected to score 82 points and the Petkim Spor 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Besiktas

Petkim Spor

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

19.20

20.80

DRB

23.20

21.90

AST-TO

1.47

1.72

TRB

33.80

31.20

FTM

14.90

11.90

BL

3.10

2.00

FTA

19.20

16.70

PF-Fewer

21.00

21.30

ST

6.50

5.70

TO-Fewer

13.10

12.10

Ftper

0.78

0.71

ORBper

0.46

0.42

ORB

10.60

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fenerbahce vs Turk Telekom at 07 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fenerbahce and Turk Telekom for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 07 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fenerbahce

1.11

1.30

Turk Telekom

6.2

4.35

Fenerbahce HC

-12.5

-7.50

Turk Telekom HC

+12.5

7.50

Point Line

164.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

A

Darussafaka

W

66

64

16

6

W 1

68

64

Feb 10

H

Tofas

L

81

84

15

6

L 1

80

79

Feb 7

A

Socar Spor

W

80

67

15

5

W 1

81

67

Jan 31

H

Gaziantep

L

97

102