BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Nizhny Novgorod vs Astana at 07 March 2021
Zielona Gora vs Parma Perm at 08 March 2021
Zenit vs Khimki at 08 March 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Nizhny Novgorod vs Astana at 07 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Nizhny Novgorod and Astana for VTB United League, which will take place on 07 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Nizhny Novgorod |
1.14 |
1.92 |
|
Astana |
5.4 |
2.09 |
|
Nizhny Novgorod HC |
-10.5 |
-1.50 |
|
Astana HC |
+10.5 |
1.50 |
|
Point Line |
158.5 |
158.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Feb 27 |
A |
UNICS |
L |
56 |
87 |
8 |
7 |
L 1 |
61 |
87 |
|
Feb 11 |
H |
Avtodor |
W |
86 |
80 |
8 |
6 |
W 2 |
83 |
78 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
Zielona Gora |
W |
97 |
93 |
7 |
6 |
W 1 |
93 |
89 |
|
Feb 2 |
A |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
L |
73 |
78 |
6 |
6 |
L 5 |
83 |
75 |
|
Jan 23 |
H |
UNICS |
L |
66 |
91 |
6 |
5 |
L 4 |
72 |
90 |
|
Jan 16 |
H |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
L |
73 |
94 |
6 |
4 |
L 3 |
70 |
85 |
|
Jan 9 |
A |
Tsmoki Minsk |
L |
76 |
77 |
6 |
3 |
L 2 |
72 |
86 |
|
Jan 3 |
H |
CSKA Moscow |
L |
63 |
83 |
6 |
2 |
L 1 |
68 |
73 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Astana are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Mar 1 |
H |
Kalev/Cramo |
L |
61 |
77 |
4 |
12 |
L 5 |
59 |
82 |
|
Feb 12 |
H |
BC Khimki |
L |
77 |
82 |
4 |
11 |
L 4 |
75 |
78 |
|
Feb 4 |
H |
Enisey |
L |
60 |
78 |
4 |
10 |
L 3 |
58 |
84 |
|
Jan 31 |
H |
Avtodor |
L |
83 |
92 |
4 |
9 |
L 2 |
80 |
90 |
|
Jan 24 |
A |
Enisey |
L |
76 |
77 |
4 |
8 |
L 1 |
73 |
83 |
|
Jan 9 |
H |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
W |
86 |
82 |
4 |
7 |
W 1 |
83 |
74 |
|
Dec 26 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
L |
70 |
77 |
3 |
7 |
L 1 |
80 |
74 |
|
Dec 17 |
A |
Parma |
W |
84 |
83 |
3 |
6 |
W 1 |
87 |
86 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Astana.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Astana and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nizhny Novgorod (in the first graph) and by Astana in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nizhny Novgorod will expected to score 83 points and the Astana 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Nizhny Novgorod |
Astana |
|
FG% |
0.54 |
0.51 |
|
ASS |
18.20 |
18.80 |
|
DRB |
21.10 |
21.40 |
|
AST-TO |
1.40 |
1.46 |
|
TRB |
29.20 |
29.10 |
|
FTM |
13.50 |
13.30 |
|
BL |
1.70 |
2.40 |
|
FTA |
18.60 |
18.30 |
|
PF-Fewer |
23.90 |
21.10 |
|
ST |
6.90 |
5.90 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.00 |
12.90 |
|
Ftper |
0.72 |
0.72 |
|
ORBper |
0.38 |
0.36 |
|
ORB |
8.10 |
7.60 |
Go to Top
Zielona Gora vs Parma Perm at 08 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Zielona Gora and Parma Perm for VTB United League, which will take place on 08 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Zielona Gora |
1.33 |
1.29 |
|
Parma Perm |
3.2 |
4.41 |
|
Zielona Gora HC |
-6.5 |
-7.50 |
|
Parma Perm HC |
+6.5 |
7.50 |
|
Point Line |
169.5 |
165.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zielona Gora are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Feb 28 |
A |
BC Khimki |
W |
99 |
94 |
11 |
8 |
W 1 |
96 |
89 |
|
Feb 7 |
H |
Nizhny Novgorod |
L |
93 |
97 |
10 |
8 |
L 1 |
92 |
100 |
|
Feb 1 |
H |
CSKA Moscow |
W |
93 |
90 |
10 |
7 |
W 4 |
100 |
79 |
|
Jan 29 |
A |
Kalev/Cramo |
W |
86 |
79 |
9 |
7 |
W 3 |
83 |
84 |
|
Jan 23 |
H |
Avtodor |
W |
77 |
64 |
8 |
7 |
W 2 |
74 |
62 |
|
Jan 17 |
A |
Tsmoki Minsk |
W |
80 |
75 |
7 |
7 |
W 1 |
76 |
83 |
|
Jan 6 |
A |
UNICS |
L |
64 |
65 |
6 |
7 |
L 1 |
70 |
65 |
|
Dec 23 |
A |
Avtodor |
W |
91 |
90 |
6 |
6 |
W 3 |
88 |
88 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Parma Perm are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Feb 12 |
A |
Kalev/Cramo |
W |
85 |
72 |
7 |
8 |
W 2 |
82 |
76 |
|
Feb 9 |
H |
Kalev/Cramo |
W |
80 |
72 |
6 |
8 |
W 1 |
77 |
76 |
|
Feb 1 |
H |
BC Khimki |
L |
69 |
72 |
5 |
8 |
L 1 |
67 |
68 |
|
Jan 17 |
A |
Enisey |
W |
86 |
52 |
5 |
7 |
W 1 |
82 |
56 |
|
Jan 9 |
H |
UNICS |
L |
69 |
76 |
4 |
7 |
L 4 |
76 |
76 |
|
Dec 26 |
A |
BC Khimki |
L |
83 |
103 |
4 |
6 |
L 3 |
81 |
97 |
|
Dec 20 |
H |
Zielona Gora |
L |
79 |
85 |
4 |
5 |
L 2 |
75 |
81 |
|
Dec 17 |
H |
Astana |
L |
83 |
84 |
4 |
4 |
L 1 |
78 |
90 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zielona Gora and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Parma Perm.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Parma Perm and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zielona Gora.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zielona Gora (in the first graph) and by Parma Perm in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zielona Gora will expected to score 83 points and the Parma Perm 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Zielona Gora |
Parma Perm |
|
FG% |
0.58 |
0.56 |
|
ASS |
18.10 |
20.10 |
|
DRB |
21.10 |
20.50 |
|
AST-TO |
1.35 |
1.37 |
|
TRB |
30.50 |
27.10 |
|
FTM |
13.80 |
13.60 |
|
BL |
2.20 |
2.00 |
|
FTA |
18.80 |
17.70 |
|
PF-Fewer |
21.40 |
21.90 |
|
ST |
6.80 |
6.70 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.40 |
14.70 |
|
Ftper |
0.74 |
0.77 |
|
ORBper |
0.45 |
0.32 |
|
ORB |
9.40 |
6.60 |
Go to Top
Zenit vs Khimki at 08 March 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit and Khimki for VTB United League, which will take place on 08 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Zenit |
1.22 |
1.71 |
|
Khimki |
4.15 |
2.42 |
|
Zenit HC |
-8.5 |
-3.00 |
|
Khimki HC |
+8.5 |
3.00 |
|
Point Line |
166.5 |
158.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Feb 13 |
A |
CSKA Moscow |
W |
74 |
71 |
15 |
2 |
W 1 |
80 |
62 |
|
Feb 10 |
A |
UNICS |
L |
58 |
59 |
14 |
2 |
L 1 |
64 |
59 |
|
Feb 7 |
A |
Tsmoki Minsk |
W |
99 |
73 |
14 |
1 |
W 7 |
94 |
81 |
|
Feb 2 |
H |
Nizhny Novgorod |
W |
78 |
73 |
13 |
1 |
W 6 |
78 |
75 |
|
Jan 31 |
H |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
W |
90 |
85 |
12 |
1 |
W 5 |
87 |
77 |
|
Jan 18 |
A |
Kalev/Cramo |
W |
87 |
51 |
11 |
1 |
W 4 |
84 |
54 |
|
Jan 10 |
H |
Avtodor |
W |
97 |
71 |
10 |
1 |
W 3 |
93 |
69 |
|
Jan 3 |
A |
Enisey |
W |
85 |
67 |
9 |
1 |
W 2 |
82 |
72 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Feb 28 |
H |
Zielona Gora |
L |
94 |
99 |
7 |
8 |
L 1 |
90 |
95 |
|
Feb 12 |
A |
Astana |
W |
82 |
77 |
7 |
7 |
W 1 |
77 |
83 |
|
Feb 8 |
H |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
L |
90 |
92 |
6 |
7 |
L 1 |
87 |
84 |
|
Feb 1 |
A |
Parma |
W |
72 |
69 |
6 |
6 |
W 1 |
74 |
71 |
|
Jan 17 |
H |
UNICS |
L |
87 |
93 |
5 |
6 |
L 1 |
95 |
92 |
|
Jan 3 |
A |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
W |
102 |
91 |
5 |
5 |
W 2 |
98 |
83 |
|
Dec 26 |
H |
Parma |
W |
103 |
83 |
4 |
5 |
W 1 |
106 |
86 |
|
Nov 22 |
A |
UNICS |
L |
76 |
83 |
3 |
5 |
L 1 |
83 |
83 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit (in the first graph) and by Khimki in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zenit will expected to score 84 points and the Khimki 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Zenit |
Khimki |
|
FG% |
0.57 |
0.54 |
|
ASS |
18.90 |
20.50 |
|
DRB |
23.90 |
21.50 |
|
AST-TO |
1.41 |
1.83 |
|
TRB |
32.30 |
30.40 |
|
FTM |
18.80 |
17.10 |
|
BL |
2.90 |
3.10 |
|
FTA |
22.70 |
21.60 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.50 |
22.50 |
|
ST |
7.50 |
6.60 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.40 |
11.20 |
|
Ftper |
0.83 |
0.79 |
|
ORBper |
0.35 |
0.41 |
|
ORB |
8.40 |
8.90 |
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