2021 03 06 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nizhny Novgorod vs Astana at 07 March 2021
Zielona Gora vs Parma Perm at 08 March 2021
Zenit vs Khimki at 08 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Nizhny Novgorod vs Astana at 07 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nizhny Novgorod and Astana for VTB United League, which will take place on 07 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nizhny Novgorod

1.14

1.92

Astana

5.4

2.09

Nizhny Novgorod HC

-10.5

-1.50

Astana HC

+10.5

1.50

Point Line

158.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 27

A

UNICS

L

56

87

8

7

L 1

61

87

Feb 11

H

Avtodor

W

86

80

8

6

W 2

83

78

Feb 7

A

Zielona Gora

W

97

93

7

6

W 1

93

89

Feb 2

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

73

78

6

6

L 5

83

75

Jan 23

H

UNICS

L

66

91

6

5

L 4

72

90

Jan 16

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

73

94

6

4

L 3

70

85

Jan 9

A

Tsmoki Minsk

L

76

77

6

3

L 2

72

86

Jan 3

H

CSKA Moscow

L

63

83

6

2

L 1

68

73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Astana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 1

H

Kalev/Cramo

L

61

77

4

12

L 5

59

82

Feb 12

H

BC Khimki

L

77

82

4

11

L 4

75

78

Feb 4

H

Enisey

L

60

78

4

10

L 3

58

84

Jan 31

H

Avtodor

L

83

92

4

9

L 2

80

90

Jan 24

A

Enisey

L

76

77

4

8

L 1

73

83

Jan 9

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

86

82

4

7

W 1

83

74

Dec 26

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

3

7

L 1

80

74

Dec 17

A

Parma

W

84

83

3

6

W 1

87

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Astana.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Astana and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nizhny Novgorod (in the first graph) and by Astana in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nizhny Novgorod will expected to score 83 points and the Astana 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nizhny Novgorod

Astana

FG%

0.54

0.51

ASS

18.20

18.80

DRB

21.10

21.40

AST-TO

1.40

1.46

TRB

29.20

29.10

FTM

13.50

13.30

BL

1.70

2.40

FTA

18.60

18.30

PF-Fewer

23.90

21.10

ST

6.90

5.90

TO-Fewer

13.00

12.90

Ftper

0.72

0.72

ORBper

0.38

0.36

ORB

8.10

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zielona Gora vs Parma Perm at 08 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zielona Gora and Parma Perm for VTB United League, which will take place on 08 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zielona Gora

1.33

1.29

Parma Perm

3.2

4.41

Zielona Gora HC

-6.5

-7.50

Parma Perm HC

+6.5

7.50

Point Line

169.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zielona Gora are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

A

BC Khimki

W

99

94

11

8

W 1

96

89

Feb 7

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

93

97

10

8

L 1

92

100

Feb 1

H

CSKA Moscow

W

93

90

10

7

W 4

100

79

Jan 29

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

86

79

9

7

W 3

83

84

Jan 23

H

Avtodor

W

77

64

8

7

W 2

74

62

Jan 17

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

80

75

7

7

W 1

76

83

Jan 6

A

UNICS

L

64

65

6

7

L 1

70

65

Dec 23

A

Avtodor

W

91

90

6

6

W 3

88

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Parma Perm are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 12

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

85

72

7

8

W 2

82

76

Feb 9

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

80

72

6

8

W 1

77

76

Feb 1

H

BC Khimki

L

69

72

5

8

L 1

67

68

Jan 17

A

Enisey

W

86

52

5

7

W 1

82

56

Jan 9

H

UNICS

L

69

76

4

7

L 4

76

76

Dec 26

A

BC Khimki

L

83

103

4

6

L 3

81

97

Dec 20

H

Zielona Gora

L

79

85

4

5

L 2

75

81

Dec 17

H

Astana

L

83

84

4

4

L 1

78

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zielona Gora and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Parma Perm.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Parma Perm and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zielona Gora.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zielona Gora (in the first graph) and by Parma Perm in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zielona Gora will expected to score 83 points and the Parma Perm 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zielona Gora

Parma Perm

FG%

0.58

0.56

ASS

18.10

20.10

DRB

21.10

20.50

AST-TO

1.35

1.37

TRB

30.50

27.10

FTM

13.80

13.60

BL

2.20

2.00

FTA

18.80

17.70

PF-Fewer

21.40

21.90

ST

6.80

6.70

TO-Fewer

13.40

14.70

Ftper

0.74

0.77

ORBper

0.45

0.32

ORB

9.40

6.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zenit vs Khimki at 08 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit and Khimki for VTB United League, which will take place on 08 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zenit

1.22

1.71

Khimki

4.15

2.42

Zenit HC

-8.5

-3.00

Khimki HC

+8.5

3.00

Point Line

166.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 13

A

CSKA Moscow

W

74

71

15

2

W 1

80

62

Feb 10

A

UNICS

L

58

59

14

2

L 1

64

59

Feb 7

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

99

73

14

1

W 7

94

81

Feb 2

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

78

73

13

1

W 6

78

75

Jan 31

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

90

85

12

1

W 5

87

77

Jan 18

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

87

51

11

1

W 4

84

54

Jan 10

H

Avtodor

W

97

71

10

1

W 3

93

69

Jan 3

A

Enisey

W

85

67

9

1

W 2

82

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 28

H

Zielona Gora

L

94

99

7

8

L 1

90

95

Feb 12

A

Astana

W

82

77

7

7

W 1

77

83

Feb 8

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

90

92

6

7

L 1

87

84

Feb 1

A

Parma

W

72

69

6

6

W 1

74

71

Jan 17

H

UNICS

L

87

93

5

6

L 1

95

92

Jan 3

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

102

91

5

5

W 2

98

83

Dec 26

H

Parma

W

103

83

4

5

W 1

106

86

Nov 22

A

UNICS

L

76

83

3

5

L 1

83

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit (in the first graph) and by Khimki in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zenit will expected to score 84 points and the Khimki 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zenit

Khimki

FG%

0.57

0.54

ASS

18.90

20.50

DRB

23.90

21.50

AST-TO

1.41

1.83

TRB

32.30

30.40

FTM

18.80

17.10

BL

2.90

3.10

FTA

22.70

21.60

PF-Fewer

20.50

22.50

ST

7.50

6.60

TO-Fewer

13.40

11.20

Ftper

0.83

0.79

ORBper

0.35

0.41

ORB

8.40

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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