2021 03 09 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nanterre vs Joventut Badalona at 09 March 2021
Buducnost vs Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana at 09 March 2021
Andorra vs Mornar Bar at 10 March 2021
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Aquila Basket Trento at 10 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Nanterre vs Joventut Badalona at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nanterre and Joventut Badalona for EuroCup, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nanterre

2.6

2.58

Joventut Badalona

1.5

1.63

Nanterre HC

+4.5

3.50

Joventut Badalona HC

-4.5

-3.50

Point Line

168.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nanterre are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 2

A

Monaco

L

94

98

6

9

L 1

102

95

Feb 3

H

Unicaja

W

80

74

6

8

W 2

78

69

Jan 27

A

Unicaja

W

92

83

5

8

W 1

90

78

Jan 20

A

Joventut

L

90

95

4

8

L 4

90

88

Jan 13

H

Monaco

L

65

93

4

7

L 3

71

90

Dec 23

A

Bursaspor

L

92

102

4

6

L 2

80

94

Dec 22

H

Bursaspor

L

90

91

4

5

L 1

79

84

Dec 8

H

Promitheas

W

91

70

4

4

W 3

83

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 2

H

Unicaja

L

77

90

11

4

L 2

75

84

Feb 2

A

Monaco

L

82

97

11

3

L 1

89

94

Jan 26

H

Monaco

W

79

72

11

2

W 6

86

70

Jan 20

H

Nanterre 92

W

95

90

10

2

W 5

90

86

Jan 13

A

Unicaja

W

95

86

9

2

W 4

93

80

Dec 30

H

JL Bourg

W

90

75

8

2

W 3

90

75

Dec 15

H

UNICS

W

84

77

7

2

W 2

90

74

Dec 8

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

89

75

6

2

W 1

81

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nanterre and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nanterre.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nanterre (in the first graph) and by Joventut Badalona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nanterre will expected to score 82 points and the Joventut Badalona 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nanterre

Joventut Badalona

FG%

0.54

0.58

ASS

15.30

20.10

DRB

22.10

22.50

AST-TO

1.32

1.50

TRB

31.10

31.50

FTM

13.30

15.90

BL

2.20

2.00

FTA

19.10

20.30

PF-Fewer

19.70

20.70

ST

6.70

5.10

TO-Fewer

11.60

13.40

Ftper

0.69

0.79

ORBper

0.41

0.40

ORB

9.10

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Buducnost vs Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Buducnost and Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana for EuroCup, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Buducnost

1.5

3.65

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

2.6

1.38

Buducnost HC

-5.5

6.50

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana HC

+5.5

-6.50

Point Line

167.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

A

JL Bourg

W

92

89

7

8

W 1

92

89

Feb 3

H

Virtus Bologna

L

89

99

6

8

L 3

93

87

Jan 26

A

Virtus Bologna

L

65

87

6

7

L 2

68

77

Jan 19

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

71

74

6

6

L 1

74

71

Jan 12

H

JL Bourg

W

108

80

6

5

W 1

108

80

Dec 16

H

Mornar

L

78

84

5

5

L 2

76

85

Dec 11

H

Metropolitans 92

L

71

73

5

4

L 1

71

73

Dec 8

A

ratiopharm Ulm

W

77

73

5

3

W 2

80

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 2

H

Virtus Bologna

L

98

108

10

5

L 1

103

95

Feb 3

A

JL Bourg

W

77

64

10

4

W 3

77

64

Jan 27

H

JL Bourg

W

94

91

9

4

W 2

94

91

Jan 19

H

Buducnost VOLI

W

74

71

8

4

W 1

74

70

Jan 13

A

Virtus Bologna

L

76

90

7

4

L 1

80

79

Dec 16

A

Promitheas

W

105

69

7

3

W 3

96

73

Dec 10

H

Promitheas

W

77

73

6

3

W 2

71

77

Dec 8

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

87

65

5

3

W 1

96

69

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Buducnost (in the first graph) and by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Buducnost will expected to score 78 points and the Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Buducnost

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

FG%

0.53

0.54

ASS

14.10

15.30

DRB

22.90

24.10

AST-TO

1.14

1.49

TRB

30.50

33.90

FTM

17.60

12.10

BL

2.60

1.70

FTA

22.20

17.10

PF-Fewer

18.80

17.80

ST

6.90

7.00

TO-Fewer

12.40

10.30

Ftper

0.79

0.71

ORBper

0.33

0.41

ORB

7.50

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Andorra vs Mornar Bar at 10 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Andorra and Mornar Bar for EuroCup, which will take place on 10 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Andorra

1.41

3.11

Mornar Bar

2.9

1.47

Andorra HC

-5.5

5.50

Mornar Bar HC

+5.5

-5.50

Point Line

152.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

A

UNICS

L

63

85

5

10

L 2

68

82

Feb 3

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

74

79

5

9

L 1

74

79

Jan 27

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

66

63

5

8

W 2

66

63

Jan 20

A

Mornar

W

74

71

4

8

W 1

72

72

Jan 13

H

UNICS

L

66

73

3

8

L 5

71

71

Dec 29

A

Monaco

L

64

66

3

7

L 4

70

64

Dec 22

A

Virtus Bologna

L

81

92

3

6

L 3

85

81

Dec 16

A

Lietkabelis

L

69

77

3

5

L 2

68

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mornar Bar are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 2

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

81

85

6

9

L 4

81

85

Feb 3

A

UNICS

L

61

86

6

8

L 3

66

83

Jan 27

H

UNICS

L

70

87

6

7

L 2

75

84

Jan 20

H

MoraBanc Andorra

L

71

74

6

6

L 1

75

81

Jan 13

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

102

100

6

5

W 3

102

100

Dec 16

A

Buducnost VOLI

W

84

78

5

5

W 2

84

77

Dec 9

H

Metropolitans 92

W

89

78

4

5

W 1

89

78

Nov 18

A

Germani Brescia

L

75

77

3

5

L 3

72

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mornar Bar.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mornar Bar and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Andorra (in the first graph) and by Mornar Bar in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Andorra will expected to score 78 points and the Mornar Bar 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Andorra

Mornar Bar

FG%

0.47

0.53

ASS

14.80

15.20

DRB

21.20

22.50

AST-TO

1.10

1.18

TRB

31.80

28.50

FTM

13.70

14.50

BL

2.70

3.80

FTA

17.80

19.70

PF-Fewer

19.90

18.90

ST

7.30

5.60

TO-Fewer

13.50

12.90

Ftper

0.77

0.74

ORBper

0.50

0.27

ORB

10.60

6.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Lokomotiv Kuban vs Aquila Basket Trento at 10 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and Aquila Basket Trento for EuroCup, which will take place on 10 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Lokomotiv Kuban

1.09

1.36

Aquila Basket Trento

7.5

3.74

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

13.5

-6.50

Aquila Basket Trento HC

+13.

6.50

Point Line

150.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

A

Metropolitans 92

W

83

61

10

5

W 1

83

61

Feb 3

A

Partizan NIS

L

69

71

9

5

L 1

75

75

Jan 27

H

Partizan NIS

W

74

67

9

4

W 1

80

71

Jan 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

84

96

8

4

L 2

92

102

Jan 12

H

Metropolitans 92

L

79

83

8

3

L 1

79

83

Dec 16

H

Monaco

W

76

72

8

2

W 3

82

70

Dec 9

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

106

100

7

2

W 2

112

109

Nov 18

H

Lietkabelis

W

94

90

6

2

W 1

92

99

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

H

Partizan NIS

W

69

54

9

6

W 2

75

57

Feb 2

H

Metropolitans 92

W

67

57

8

6

W 1

67

57

Jan 26

A

Metropolitans 92

L

86

92

7

6

L 1

86

92

Jan 20

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

96

84

7

5

W 1

98

77

Jan 13

A

Partizan NIS

L

43

71

6

5

L 5

47

75

Dec 16

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

56

67

6

4

L 4

56

67

Dec 8

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

65

87

6

3

L 3

68

83

Nov 18

H

Nanterre 92

L

102

104

6

2

L 2

96

100

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aquila Basket Trento.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aquila Basket Trento and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by Aquila Basket Trento in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 80 points and the Aquila Basket Trento 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Lokomotiv Kuban

Aquila Basket Trento

FG%

0.54

0.47

ASS

18.60

15.40

DRB

24.10

23.20

AST-TO

1.43

1.31

TRB

34.90

33.30

FTM

15.70

13.00

BL

3.10

2.10

FTA

22.10

17.00

PF-Fewer

19.50

19.30

ST

6.70

7.60

TO-Fewer

13.00

11.80

Ftper

0.71

0.76

ORBper

0.44

0.44

ORB

10.70

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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