2021 03 09 BCL – MATH to WIN

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nymburk vs Sassari at 09 March 2021
VEF Riga vs Igokea at 09 March 2021
Tofas vs Hapoel Holon at 09 March 2021
Brindisi vs Karsiyaka at 09 March 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Tenerife at 09 March 2021
AEK Athens vs Turk Telekom at 10 March 2021
Strasbourg vs Nizhny Novgorod at 10 March 2021
Zaragoza vs Brose Bamberg at 10 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Nymburk vs Sassari at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nymburk and Sassari for BCL, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Nymburk	1.53	1.15
Sassari	2.55	7.79
Nymburk HC	-4.5	-10.00
Sassari HC	+4.5	10.00
Point Line	175.5	168.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nymburk are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 2	A	Brose Baskets Bamberg	W	91	87	5	2		98	82
Jan 19	H	Tofas SC	L	97	103	4	2		98	96
Jan 6	H	JDA Dijon Basket	W	94	54	4	1		101	57
Dec 15	A	Keravnos Strovolou	W	102	69	3	1		92	80
Nov 18	H	Keravnos Strovolou	W	96	69	2	1		87	80
Nov 10	A	Tofas SC	W	96	93	1	1		97	87
Nov 3	A	JDA Dijon Basket	L	61	85	0	1		66	90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Sassari are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 2	H	Casademont Zaragoza	L	83	95	4	3		80	85
Jan 20	A	Galatasaray	W	92	81	4	2		80	79
Jan 6	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	85	115	3	2		84	100
Dec 16	H	Bakken Bears	L	71	93	3	1		68	85
Nov 18	A	Bakken Bears	W	91	84	3	0		87	77
Nov 4	H	Iberostar Tenerife	W	92	72	2	0		91	63
Oct 21	H	Galatasaray	W	93	84	1	0		80	82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nymburk and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Sassari.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Sassari and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nymburk.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nymburk (in the first graph) and by Sassari in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nymburk will expected to score 86 points and the Sassari 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Nymburk	Sassari
FG%	0.54	0.53
ASS	21.60	19.40
DRB	28.40	22.30
AST-TO	1.70	1.43
TRB	40.00	33.60
FTM	17.40	16.30
BL	3.00	2.00
FTA	24.00	20.90
PF-Fewer	16.70	20.00
ST	7.00	6.10
TO-Fewer	12.70	13.60
Ftper	0.73	0.78
ORBper	0.41	0.51
ORB	11.60	11.30

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VEF Riga vs Igokea at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between VEF Riga and Igokea for BCL, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
VEF Riga	2.1	1.82
Igokea	1.75	2.22
VEF Riga HC	+1.5	-2.00
Igokea HC	-1.5	2.00
Point Line	153.5	152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of VEF Riga are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 2	A	Hereda San Pablo Burgos	L	75	76	4	3		78	68
Jan 26	H	Peristeri BC	W	60	57	4	2		63	60
Jan 13	A	Strasbourg IG	L	94	101	3	2		97	100
Dec 23	H	Lietuvos Rytas	W	84	60	3	1		79	62
Dec 8	A	Lietuvos Rytas	W	85	81	2	1		80	84
Nov 10	A	Peristeri BC	W	84	81	1	1		88	85
Oct 28	H	Strasbourg IG	L	75	77	0	1		77	76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Igokea are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 3	H	Iberostar Tenerife	L	62	82	3	4		62	72
Jan 26	A	Turk Telekom	L	86	94	3	3		88	93
Jan 12	H	CSP Limoges	W	76	73	3	2		79	77
Dec 24	A	Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem	L	68	84	2	2		68	82
Dec 22	H	Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem	W	75	73	2	1		75	72
Nov 11	H	Turk Telekom	W	77	66	1	1		79	65
Oct 28	A	CSP Limoges	L	75	80	0	1		78	84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by VEF Riga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Igokea.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Igokea and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by VEF Riga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by VEF Riga (in the first graph) and by Igokea in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, VEF Riga will expected to score 79 points and the Igokea 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Var	VEF Riga	Igokea
FG%	0.47	0.50
ASS	17.90	15.90
DRB	20.70	23.70
AST-TO	1.63	1.13
TRB	30.70	32.70
FTM	10.70	16.30
BL	3.00	1.30
FTA	15.00	21.70
PF-Fewer	19.90	21.00
ST	9.30	6.30
TO-Fewer	11.00	14.10
Ftper	0.71	0.75
ORBper	0.48	0.38
ORB	10.00	9.00

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Tofas vs Hapoel Holon at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tofas and Hapoel Holon for BCL, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Tofas	1.55	1.42
Hapoel Holon	2.45	3.38
Tofas HC	-4.5	-6.00
Hapoel Holon HC	+4.5	6.00
Point Line	165.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 3	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	70	78	4	3		77	79
Jan 19	A	CEZ Nymburk	W	103	97	4	2		104	84
Jan 12	A	JDA Dijon Basket	W	90	61	3	2		97	64
Jan 6	H	Keravnos Strovolou	W	78	67	2	2		71	78
Nov 18	H	JDA Dijon Basket	L	81	87	1	2		87	92
Nov 10	H	CEZ Nymburk	L	93	96	1	1		94	83
Nov 3	A	Keravnos Strovolou	W	84	74	1	0		76	86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Holon are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 2	H	Enel Brindisi	W	87	85	5	2		82	78
Jan 20	H	Cholet Basket	W	89	71	4	2		92	75
Jan 5	H	AEK Athens	W	77	71	3	2		76	66
Dec 15	A	Tsmoki-Minsk	W	75	71	2	2		73	74
Nov 17	H	Tsmoki-Minsk	L	69	79	1	2		67	82
Nov 10	A	Cholet Basket	W	73	63	1	1		76	66
Nov 4	A	AEK Athens	L	96	100	0	1		95	94

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Holon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Holon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tofas (in the first graph) and by Hapoel Holon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tofas will expected to score 82 points and the Hapoel Holon 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Var	Tofas	Hapoel Holon
FG%	0.53	0.55
ASS	22.60	19.00
DRB	24.00	20.70
AST-TO	1.79	1.27
TRB	33.90	27.40
FTM	12.90	15.30
BL	3.10	2.30
FTA	17.40	19.70
PF-Fewer	21.60	22.30
ST	9.30	6.10
TO-Fewer	12.60	15.00
Ftper	0.74	0.78
ORBper	0.41	0.32
ORB	9.90	6.70

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Brindisi vs Karsiyaka at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brindisi and Karsiyaka for BCL, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Brindisi	2	1.75
Karsiyaka	1.83	2.33
Brindisi HC	+1.5	-2.50
Karsiyaka HC	-1.5	2.50
Point Line	161.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brindisi are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 2	A	Hapoel Unet Holon	L	85	87	4	3		89	86
Jan 27	H	Hereda San Pablo Burgos	L	86	90	4	2		89	81
Jan 13	A	Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul	W	87	83	4	1		84	88
Dec 22	H	Telenet BC Oostende	W	93	81	3	1		87	81
Dec 9	A	Telenet BC Oostende	W	92	80	2	1		86	80
Nov 18	A	Hereda San Pablo Burgos	L	71	93	1	1		74	84
Nov 11	H	Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul	W	92	81	1	0		88	86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 3	H	Tofas SC	W	78	70	5	2		79	66
Jan 27	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	85	76	4	2		91	82
Jan 12	A	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	78	65	3	2		77	78
Jan 5	H	Fortituto Kontatto Bologna	W	80	69	2	2		79	83
Dec 23	H	Brose Baskets Bamberg	L	70	76	1	2		76	72
Dec 8	A	Brose Baskets Bamberg	L	82	83	1	1		89	78
Oct 27	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	81	72	1	0		87	78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brindisi and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brindisi.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brindisi (in the first graph) and by Karsiyaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brindisi will expected to score 81 points and the Karsiyaka 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Var	Brindisi	Karsiyaka
FG%	0.54	0.53
ASS	16.60	18.30
DRB	23.30	20.10
AST-TO	1.15	1.97
TRB	32.70	28.40
FTM	19.30	13.40
BL	1.00	1.90
FTA	23.90	17.60
PF-Fewer	20.10	18.90
ST	6.60	5.40
TO-Fewer	14.40	9.30
Ftper	0.81	0.76
ORBper	0.40	0.41
ORB	9.40	8.30

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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San Pablo Burgos vs Tenerife at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between San Pablo Burgos and Tenerife for BCL, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
San Pablo Burgos	1.67	1.32
Tenerife	2.2	4.11
San Pablo Burgos HC	-2.5	-7.50
Tenerife HC	+2.5	7.50
Point Line	165.5	166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 2	H	BC VEF Riga	W	76	75	6	1		80	76
Jan 27	A	Enel Brindisi	W	90	86	5	1		85	80
Jan 12	H	Telenet BC Oostende	W	88	73	4	1		82	73
Dec 22	A	Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul	W	74	71	3	1		71	76
Dec 9	H	Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul	W	100	70	2	1		96	75
Nov 18	H	Enel Brindisi	W	93	71	1	1		88	66
Nov 10	A	Telenet BC Oostende	L	98	99	0	1		91	99

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Mar 3	A	BC Igokea	W	82	62	5	2		84	67
Jan 20	A	Bakken Bears	L	78	96	4	2		74	88
Jan 6	H	Banco di Sardegna Sassari	W	115	85	4	1		103	78
Dec 15	A	Galatasaray	W	104	89	3	1		90	87