2021 03 09 BCL



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nymburk vs Sassari at 09 March 2021
VEF Riga vs Igokea at 09 March 2021
Tofas vs Hapoel Holon at 09 March 2021
Brindisi vs Karsiyaka at 09 March 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Tenerife at 09 March 2021
AEK Athens vs Turk Telekom at 10 March 2021
Strasbourg vs Nizhny Novgorod at 10 March 2021
Zaragoza vs Brose Bamberg at 10 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Nymburk vs Sassari at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nymburk and Sassari for BCL, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nymburk

1.53

1.15

Sassari

2.55

7.79

Nymburk HC

-4.5

-10.00

Sassari HC

+4.5

10.00

Point Line

175.5

168.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nymburk are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 2

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

W

91

87

5

2

98

82

Jan 19

H

Tofas SC

L

97

103

4

2

98

96

Jan 6

H

JDA Dijon Basket

W

94

54

4

1

101

57

Dec 15

A

Keravnos Strovolou

W

102

69

3

1

92

80

Nov 18

H

Keravnos Strovolou

W

96

69

2

1

87

80

Nov 10

A

Tofas SC

W

96

93

1

1

97

87

Nov 3

A

JDA Dijon Basket

L

61

85

0

1

66

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 2

H

Casademont Zaragoza

L

83

95

4

3

80

85

Jan 20

A

Galatasaray

W

92

81

4

2

80

79

Jan 6

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

85

115

3

2

84

100

Dec 16

H

Bakken Bears

L

71

93

3

1

68

85

Nov 18

A

Bakken Bears

W

91

84

3

0

87

77

Nov 4

H

Iberostar Tenerife

W

92

72

2

0

91

63

Oct 21

H

Galatasaray

W

93

84

1

0

80

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nymburk and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Sassari.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Sassari and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nymburk.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nymburk (in the first graph) and by Sassari in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nymburk will expected to score 86 points and the Sassari 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nymburk

Sassari

FG%

0.54

0.53

ASS

21.60

19.40

DRB

28.40

22.30

AST-TO

1.70

1.43

TRB

40.00

33.60

FTM

17.40

16.30

BL

3.00

2.00

FTA

24.00

20.90

PF-Fewer

16.70

20.00

ST

7.00

6.10

TO-Fewer

12.70

13.60

Ftper

0.73

0.78

ORBper

0.41

0.51

ORB

11.60

11.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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VEF Riga vs Igokea at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between VEF Riga and Igokea for BCL, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

VEF Riga

2.1

1.82

Igokea

1.75

2.22

VEF Riga HC

+1.5

-2.00

Igokea HC

-1.5

2.00

Point Line

153.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of VEF Riga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 2

A

Hereda San Pablo Burgos

L

75

76

4

3

78

68

Jan 26

H

Peristeri BC

W

60

57

4

2

63

60

Jan 13

A

Strasbourg IG

L

94

101

3

2

97

100

Dec 23

H

Lietuvos Rytas

W

84

60

3

1

79

62

Dec 8

A

Lietuvos Rytas

W

85

81

2

1

80

84

Nov 10

A

Peristeri BC

W

84

81

1

1

88

85

Oct 28

H

Strasbourg IG

L

75

77

0

1

77

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Igokea are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

62

82

3

4

62

72

Jan 26

A

Turk Telekom

L

86

94

3

3

88

93

Jan 12

H

CSP Limoges

W

76

73

3

2

79

77

Dec 24

A

Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem

L

68

84

2

2

68

82

Dec 22

H

Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem

W

75

73

2

1

75

72

Nov 11

H

Turk Telekom

W

77

66

1

1

79

65

Oct 28

A

CSP Limoges

L

75

80

0

1

78

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by VEF Riga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Igokea.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Igokea and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by VEF Riga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by VEF Riga (in the first graph) and by Igokea in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, VEF Riga will expected to score 79 points and the Igokea 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

VEF Riga

Igokea

FG%

0.47

0.50

ASS

17.90

15.90

DRB

20.70

23.70

AST-TO

1.63

1.13

TRB

30.70

32.70

FTM

10.70

16.30

BL

3.00

1.30

FTA

15.00

21.70

PF-Fewer

19.90

21.00

ST

9.30

6.30

TO-Fewer

11.00

14.10

Ftper

0.71

0.75

ORBper

0.48

0.38

ORB

10.00

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Tofas vs Hapoel Holon at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tofas and Hapoel Holon for BCL, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tofas

1.55

1.42

Hapoel Holon

2.45

3.38

Tofas HC

-4.5

-6.00

Hapoel Holon HC

+4.5

6.00

Point Line

165.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

70

78

4

3

77

79

Jan 19

A

CEZ Nymburk

W

103

97

4

2

104

84

Jan 12

A

JDA Dijon Basket

W

90

61

3

2

97

64

Jan 6

H

Keravnos Strovolou

W

78

67

2

2

71

78

Nov 18

H

JDA Dijon Basket

L

81

87

1

2

87

92

Nov 10

H

CEZ Nymburk

L

93

96

1

1

94

83

Nov 3

A

Keravnos Strovolou

W

84

74

1

0

76

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Holon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 2

H

Enel Brindisi

W

87

85

5

2

82

78

Jan 20

H

Cholet Basket

W

89

71

4

2

92

75

Jan 5

H

AEK Athens

W

77

71

3

2

76

66

Dec 15

A

Tsmoki-Minsk

W

75

71

2

2

73

74

Nov 17

H

Tsmoki-Minsk

L

69

79

1

2

67

82

Nov 10

A

Cholet Basket

W

73

63

1

1

76

66

Nov 4

A

AEK Athens

L

96

100

0

1

95

94

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Holon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Holon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tofas (in the first graph) and by Hapoel Holon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tofas will expected to score 82 points and the Hapoel Holon 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Tofas

Hapoel Holon

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

22.60

19.00

DRB

24.00

20.70

AST-TO

1.79

1.27

TRB

33.90

27.40

FTM

12.90

15.30

BL

3.10

2.30

FTA

17.40

19.70

PF-Fewer

21.60

22.30

ST

9.30

6.10

TO-Fewer

12.60

15.00

Ftper

0.74

0.78

ORBper

0.41

0.32

ORB

9.90

6.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Brindisi vs Karsiyaka at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brindisi and Karsiyaka for BCL, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brindisi

2

1.75

Karsiyaka

1.83

2.33

Brindisi HC

+1.5

-2.50

Karsiyaka HC

-1.5

2.50

Point Line

161.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brindisi are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 2

A

Hapoel Unet Holon

L

85

87

4

3

89

86

Jan 27

H

Hereda San Pablo Burgos

L

86

90

4

2

89

81

Jan 13

A

Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul

W

87

83

4

1

84

88

Dec 22

H

Telenet BC Oostende

W

93

81

3

1

87

81

Dec 9

A

Telenet BC Oostende

W

92

80

2

1

86

80

Nov 18

A

Hereda San Pablo Burgos

L

71

93

1

1

74

84

Nov 11

H

Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul

W

92

81

1

0

88

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

H

Tofas SC

W

78

70

5

2

79

66

Jan 27

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

76

4

2

91

82

Jan 12

A

Fortituto Kontatto Bologna

W

78

65

3

2

77

78

Jan 5

H

Fortituto Kontatto Bologna

W

80

69

2

2

79

83

Dec 23

H

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

70

76

1

2

76

72

Dec 8

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

82

83

1

1

89

78

Oct 27

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

81

72

1

0

87

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brindisi and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brindisi.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brindisi (in the first graph) and by Karsiyaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brindisi will expected to score 81 points and the Karsiyaka 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brindisi

Karsiyaka

FG%

0.54

0.53

ASS

16.60

18.30

DRB

23.30

20.10

AST-TO

1.15

1.97

TRB

32.70

28.40

FTM

19.30

13.40

BL

1.00

1.90

FTA

23.90

17.60

PF-Fewer

20.10

18.90

ST

6.60

5.40

TO-Fewer

14.40

9.30

Ftper

0.81

0.76

ORBper

0.40

0.41

ORB

9.40

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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San Pablo Burgos vs Tenerife at 09 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between San Pablo Burgos and Tenerife for BCL, which will take place on 09 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

San Pablo Burgos

1.67

1.32

Tenerife

2.2

4.11

San Pablo Burgos HC

-2.5

-7.50

Tenerife HC

+2.5

7.50

Point Line

165.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 2

H

BC VEF Riga

W

76

75

6

1

80

76

Jan 27

A

Enel Brindisi

W

90

86

5

1

85

80

Jan 12

H

Telenet BC Oostende

W

88

73

4

1

82

73

Dec 22

A

Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul

W

74

71

3

1

71

76

Dec 9

H

Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul

W

100

70

2

1

96

75

Nov 18

H

Enel Brindisi

W

93

71

1

1

88

66

Nov 10

A

Telenet BC Oostende

L

98

99

0

1

91

99

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 3

A

BC Igokea

W

82

62

5

2

84

67

Jan 20

A

Bakken Bears

L

78

96

4

2

74

88

Jan 6

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

115

85

4

1

103

78

Dec 15

A

Galatasaray

W

104

89

3

1

90

87