2021 03 09 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen at 10 March 2021


Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen at 10 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bielefeld and Werder Bremen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 10 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bielefeld

3.03

2.87

1.8

Draw

3.17

3.79

-5.2

Werder Bremen

2.47

2.58

-1.7

Over 2.5

2.22

1.86

8.7

Under 2.5

1.67

2.16

-13.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bielefeld, Over 2.5 (1.8 %, 8.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bielefeld in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance at home.
Bielefeld, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Union Berlin

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Dortmund

A

0

3

L

O

N

19 Feb

Wolfsburg

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Feb

Bayern Munich

A

3

3

D

O

G

31 Jan

FC Koln

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

5

L

O

G

20 Jan

Stuttgart

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Hoffenheim

A

0

0

D

U

N


Werder Bremen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance as a guest.
Werder Bremen, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

FC Koln

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Feb

Ein Frankfurt

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Hoffenheim

A

0

4

L

O

N

13 Feb

Freiburg

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Schalke 04

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Hertha

A

4

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

M’gladbach

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Bielefeld is -0.776 and for the Werder Bremen is 0.12.
The home dynamic for the Bielefeld is -0.539 and the dynamic as a guest for the Werder Bremen is -0.15.
The offensive ability for the Bielefeld is -0.111 and for the Werder Bremen is 0.182.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bielefeld is -0.411 and for the Werder Bremen is -0.626.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, Werder Bremen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bielefeld

26%

34%

22%

18%

Werder Bremen

23%

35%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.05 goals and Werder Bremen to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.31 goals and Werder Bremen to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

4.33

1

5.85

2-3

2.11

2

4.35

4+

3.41

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.65

Un 1.5

4.33

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

29.41

Un 2.5

2.17

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

3.41

NoG

2.32

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

3.85

2.51

2-3 goals

2.84

3.93

2.54

4+ goals

2.87

3.53

2.71

Ov 1.5

2.86

3.76

2.60

Un 1.5

2.92

3.85

2.51

Ov 2.5

2.46

6.48

2.28

Un 2.5

3.57

2.55

3.05

Ov 3.5

2.87

3.53

2.71

Un 3.5

2.87

3.90

2.53

Goal-Goal

3.19

2.78

3.05

No Goal

2.54

7.18

2.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.51

5.39

2.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.64

7.18

2.25


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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