2021 03 09 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Luton vs Rotherham at 09 March 2021
QPR vs Wycombe at 09 March 2021
Blackburn vs Swansea at 09 March 2021
Barnsley vs Derby at 10 March 2021


Luton vs Rotherham at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Luton and Rotherham for Championship (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Luton

2.47

2.23

4.4

Draw

3.37

3.64

-2.2

Rotherham

2.85

3.62

-7.5

Over 2.5

2.08

2.17

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.78

1.85

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Luton (4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Luton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance at home.
Luton, at home, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Norwich

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Nott’m Forest

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Feb

Millwall

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Stoke

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Feb

Cardiff

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Huddersfield

H

1

1

D

U

G


Rotherham in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance as a guest.
Rotherham, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Reading

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Feb

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Cardiff

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Preston

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Derby

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Luton is -0.216 and for the Rotherham is -0.856.
The home dynamic for the Luton is 0.009 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rotherham is -0.378.
The offensive ability for the Luton is 0.037 and for the Rotherham is -0.636.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Luton is -0.444 and for the Rotherham is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Luton and the red line for guest team, Rotherham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Luton

24%

35%

22%

19%

Rotherham

33%

40%

16%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Luton to score 1.25 goals and Rotherham to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Luton to score 1.37 goals and Rotherham to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Luton to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.46

1

4.74

2-3

2.06

2

3.97

4+

4.46

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.46

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.49

3.71

3.04

2-3 goals

2.14

3.47

4.08

4+ goals

2.11

4.00

3.61

Ov 1.5

2.13

3.62

3.92

Un 1.5

2.49

3.71

3.04

Ov 2.5

1.77

8.18

3.20

Un 2.5

2.85

2.48

4.07

Ov 3.5

2.11

4.00

3.61

Un 3.5

2.26

3.56

3.62

Goal-Goal

2.60

2.60

4.32

No Goal

1.93

6.27

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.89

6.61

3.14

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.27

3.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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QPR vs Wycombe at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between QPR and Wycombe for Championship (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

QPR

1.81

1.92

-3.2

Draw

3.76

3.85

-0.6

Wycombe

4.30

4.55

-1.3

Over 2.5

1.78

2.08

-8.1

Under 2.5

2.06

1.92

3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

QPR in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance at home.
QPR, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Bristol City

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

Barnsley

H

1

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Birmingham

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Feb

Preston

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Bournemouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Feb

Brentford

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Watford

A

2

1

W

O

G


Wycombe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance as a guest.
Wycombe, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 17.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Stoke

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Norwich

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Reading

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Millwall

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Feb

Derby

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Huddersfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

09 Feb

Sheffield Weds

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the QPR is 0.056 and for the Wycombe is -0.761.
The home dynamic for the QPR is -0.191 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wycombe is -0.917.
The offensive ability for the QPR is 0.681 and for the Wycombe is -0.727.
Finally, the defensive ability for the QPR is 0.078 and for the Wycombe is -0.278.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Wycombe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

QPR

19%

32%

28%

21%

Wycombe

35%

43%

13%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.76 goals and Wycombe to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.51 goals and Wycombe to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.86

1

5.18

2-3

1.95

2

3.85

4+

4.41

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.86

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.92

3.12

2-3 goals

1.76

3.72

6.12

4+ goals

1.91

4.13

4.28

Ov 1.5

1.80

3.84

5.41

Un 1.5

2.35

3.92

3.12

Ov 2.5

1.53

8.75

4.29

Un 2.5

2.51

2.54

4.81

Ov 3.5

1.91

4.13

4.28

Un 3.5

1.92

3.79

4.63

Goal-Goal

2.20

2.74

5.57

No Goal

1.68

7.14

3.77

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

7.11

4.12

NG+Un 2.5

1.84

7.14

3.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Blackburn vs Swansea at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Swansea for Championship (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

2.48

2.54

-1.0

Draw

3.20

3.55

-3.1

Swansea

2.97

3.08

-1.2

Over 2.5

2.20

2.26

-1.2

Under 2.5

1.68

1.79

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackburn in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance at home.
Blackburn, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Millwall

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Reading

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Coventry

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Feb

Watford

H

2

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Nott’m Forest

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Feb

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Feb

Preston

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

QPR

A

0

1

L

U

N


Swansea in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance as a guest.
Swansea, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Mar

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Bristol City

H

1

3

L

O

G

24 Feb

Coventry

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Huddersfield

A

1

4

L

O

G

17 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Feb

Norwich

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Rotherham

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Blackburn is -0.544 and for the Swansea is 0.388.
The home dynamic for the Blackburn is -0.122 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swansea is 0.544.
The offensive ability for the Blackburn is 0.333 and for the Swansea is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackburn is -0.411 and for the Swansea is -0.304.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Swansea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

28%

38%

16%

18%

Swansea

33%

37%

18%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.21 goals and Swansea to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.24 goals and Swansea to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

3.15

1

4.42

2-3

2.16

2

4.15

4+

4.57

3

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.15

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.48

3.08

2-3 goals

2.69

3.36

3.03

4+ goals

2.23

4.21

3.17

Ov 1.5

2.53

3.59

3.07

Un 1.5

2.58

3.48

3.08

Ov 2.5

2.03

8.48

2.56

Un 2.5

3.17

2.44

3.65

Ov 3.5

2.23

4.21

3.17

Un 3.5

2.64

3.41

3.05

Goal-Goal

3.06

2.55

3.56

No Goal

2.19

5.66

2.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

6.65

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

2.39

5.66

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barnsley vs Derby at 10 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barnsley and Derby for Championship (England), which will take place on 10 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barnsley

2.49

2.06

8.4

Draw

3.13

3.66

-4.6

Derby

3.03

4.12

-8.7

Over 2.5

2.28

2.22

1.2

Under 2.5

1.64

1.82

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barnsley, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barnsley in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance at home.
Barnsley, at home, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 64.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Birmingham

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Mar

QPR

A

3

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Millwall

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Feb

Stoke

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Bristol City

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Blackburn

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Brentford

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Nott’m Forest

A

0

0

D

U

N


Derby in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance as a guest.
Derby, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Coventry

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Cardiff

A

0

4

L

O

N

26 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Huddersfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Watford

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Wycombe

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Rotherham

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Barnsley is 1 and for the Derby is -0.378.
The home dynamic for the Barnsley is 0.4 and the dynamic as a guest for the Derby is -0.295.
The offensive ability for the Barnsley is 1 and for the Derby is 0.064.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Barnsley is 0.522 and for the Derby is -0.626.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnsley and the red line for guest team, Derby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barnsley

22%

35%

21%

21%

Derby

37%

40%

13%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.19 goals and Derby to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.42 goals and Derby to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Barnsley to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.32

1

4.57

2-3

2.08

2

4.03

4+

4.55

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.32

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals