# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Notts County vs Halifax at 09 March 2021**** Woking vs Boreham Wood at 09 March 2021**** Wealdstone vs King’s Lynn at 09 March 2021**** Solihull vs Stockport at 09 March 2021**** Dag and Red vs Maidenhead at 09 March 2021**** Barnet vs Wrexham at 09 March 2021**** Altrincham vs Hartlepool at 09 March 2021**** Sutton vs Yeovil at 09 March 2021**

###
Notts County vs Halifax at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Notts County** and **Halifax** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Notts County |
2.10 |
2.26 |
-3.4 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.80 |
-2.8 |

Halifax |
3.22 |
3.39 |
-1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.99 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.01 |
-4.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Notts County** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Notts County** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance** at home**.

Notts County,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Mar |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Dag and Red |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Halifax** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Halifax** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance** as a guest**.

Halifax,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Wealdstone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Torquay |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Barnet |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Notts County** is **0.216** and for the **Halifax** is **0.005.**

The home dynamic for the **Notts County** is **0.104** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Halifax** is **0.161.**

The offensive ability for the **Notts County** is **0.281** and for the **Halifax** is **0.664.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Notts County** is **0.444** and for the **Halifax** is **-0.678.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Notts County** and the red line for guest team, **Halifax. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Notts County |
24% |
31% |
25% |
20% |

Halifax |
31% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Notts County** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Halifax** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Notts County ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Notts County** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Halifax** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.47 |
3.02 |

2-3 goals |
2.13 |
4.34 |
3.33 |

4+ goals |
2.22 |
3.36 |
3.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.94 |
3.53 |

Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.47 |
3.02 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.59 |
3.15 |

Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.67 |
3.65 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.36 |
3.98 |

Un 3.5 |
2.28 |
3.99 |
3.22 |

Goal-Goal |
2.58 |
2.78 |
3.96 |

No Goal |
2.00 |
6.42 |
2.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.41 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.42 |
2.83 |

####
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###
Woking vs Boreham Wood at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Woking** and **Boreham Wood** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Woking |
2.65 |
2.39 |
4.1 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.73 |
-4.3 |

Boreham Wood |
2.72 |
3.19 |
-5.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
1.99 |
6.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
2.01 |
-10.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Woking, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 6.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Woking** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Woking** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance** at home**.

Woking,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
King’s Lynn |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Boreham Wood** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Boreham Wood** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance** as a guest**.

Boreham Wood,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Wealdstone |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Altrincham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Yeovil |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Sutton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Woking** is **-0.216** and for the **Boreham Wood** is **-0.292.**

The home dynamic for the **Woking** is **-0.017** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Boreham Wood** is **0.306.**

The offensive ability for the **Woking** is **0.311** and for the **Boreham Wood** is **0.545.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Woking** is **0.111** and for the **Boreham Wood** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Woking** and the red line for guest team, **Boreham Wood. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Woking |
22% |
36% |
24% |
18% |

Boreham Wood |
30% |
35% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Woking** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Boreham Wood** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Woking** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Boreham Wood** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.75 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
2.35 |
3.94 |
3.11 |

4+ goals |
2.48 |
3.31 |
3.40 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.70 |
3.21 |

Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.75 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.51 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.59 |
3.85 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.31 |
3.40 |

Un 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.87 |
3.14 |

Goal-Goal |
2.90 |
2.70 |
3.52 |

No Goal |
1.98 |
6.76 |
2.89 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
5.45 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.76 |
2.88 |

####
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###
Wealdstone vs King’s Lynn at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wealdstone** and **King’s Lynn** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wealdstone |
2.54 |
2.16 |
6.9 |

Draw |
3.73 |
3.89 |
-1.1 |

King’s Lynn |
2.58 |
3.58 |
-10.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.99 |
-13.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.01 |
7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (6.9 %, 7.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wealdstone** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wealdstone** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance** at home**.

Wealdstone,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Wrexham |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**King’s Lynn** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **King’s Lynn** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance** as a guest**.

King’s Lynn,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Woking |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Notts County |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Barnet |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Bromley |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Wealdstone** is **-0.44** and for the **King’s Lynn** is **-0.483.**

The home dynamic for the **Wealdstone** is **-0.096** and the dynamic as a guest for the **King’s Lynn** is **-0.617.**

The offensive ability for the **Wealdstone** is **0.681** and for the **King’s Lynn** is **-0.182.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wealdstone** is **0.033** and for the **King’s Lynn** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wealdstone** and the red line for guest team, **King’s Lynn. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wealdstone |
25% |
27% |
25% |
22% |

King’s Lynn |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wealdstone** to score **1.51 ** goals and **King’s Lynn** to score **1.49 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wealdstone** to score **1.44 ** goals and **King’s Lynn** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Wealdstone ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.93 |
3.18 |
2.90 |

2-3 goals |
1.94 |
4.86 |
3.59 |

4+ goals |
2.02 |
3.41 |
4.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.97 |
4.24 |
3.92 |

Un 1.5 |
2.93 |
3.18 |
2.90 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
6.71 |
3.70 |

Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
2.74 |
3.48 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.41 |
4.74 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
4.09 |
3.31 |

Goal-Goal |
2.30 |
2.89 |
4.57 |

No Goal |
2.02 |
6.00 |
2.95 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
5.39 |
3.67 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
6.00 |
2.79 |

####
Go to Top

###
Solihull vs Stockport at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Solihull** and **Stockport** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Solihull |
3.02 |
2.15 |
13.4 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.85 |
-3.7 |

Stockport |
2.34 |
3.64 |
-15.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.97 |
2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.03 |
-6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Solihull, Over 2.5 (13.4 %, 2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Solihull** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Solihull scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Solihull** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance** at home**.

Solihull,** at home**, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Solihull scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Maidenhead |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Weymouth |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Aldershot |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Stockport** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Stockport** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance** as a guest**.

Stockport,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Weymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Chesterfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Maidenhead |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Solihull** is **-0.304** and for the **Stockport** is **-0.292.**

The home dynamic for the **Solihull** is **0.096** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Stockport** is **0.078.**

The offensive ability for the **Solihull** is **0.333** and for the **Stockport** is **-1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Solihull** is **-0.556** and for the **Stockport** is **0.504.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Solihull** and the red line for guest team, **Stockport. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Solihull |
22% |
31% |
25% |
22% |

Stockport |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Solihull** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Stockport** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.22** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Solihull** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Stockport** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the home team **Solihull ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.86 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.