Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Notts County vs Halifax at 09 March 2021
Woking vs Boreham Wood at 09 March 2021
Wealdstone vs King’s Lynn at 09 March 2021
Solihull vs Stockport at 09 March 2021
Dag and Red vs Maidenhead at 09 March 2021
Barnet vs Wrexham at 09 March 2021
Altrincham vs Hartlepool at 09 March 2021
Sutton vs Yeovil at 09 March 2021
Notts County vs Halifax at 09 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Notts County and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Notts County |
2.10 |
2.26 |
-3.4 |
|
Draw |
3.43 |
3.80 |
-2.8 |
|
Halifax |
3.22 |
3.39 |
-1.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.99 |
-1.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.01 |
-4.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Notts County in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance at home.
Notts County, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Mar |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Feb |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Dag and Red |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Halifax in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Wealdstone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Torquay |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Feb |
Barnet |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The form score for the Notts County is 0.216 and for the Halifax is 0.005.
The home dynamic for the Notts County is 0.104 and the dynamic as a guest for the Halifax is 0.161.
The offensive ability for the Notts County is 0.281 and for the Halifax is 0.664.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Notts County is 0.444 and for the Halifax is -0.678.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Notts County and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Notts County |
24% |
31% |
25% |
20% |
|
Halifax |
31% |
36% |
22% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.44 goals and Halifax to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.41 goals and Halifax to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.89 |
|
1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.92 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |
|
NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.47 |
3.02 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.13 |
4.34 |
3.33 |
|
4+ goals |
2.22 |
3.36 |
3.98 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.94 |
3.53 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.47 |
3.02 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.59 |
3.15 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.67 |
3.65 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.36 |
3.98 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.28 |
3.99 |
3.22 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.58 |
2.78 |
3.96 |
|
No Goal |
2.00 |
6.42 |
2.91 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.41 |
3.11 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.42 |
2.83 |
Go to Top
Woking vs Boreham Wood at 09 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Boreham Wood for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Woking |
2.65 |
2.39 |
4.1 |
|
Draw |
3.21 |
3.73 |
-4.3 |
|
Boreham Wood |
2.72 |
3.19 |
-5.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
1.99 |
6.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
2.01 |
-10.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Woking in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
King’s Lynn |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Feb |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Boreham Wood in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boreham Wood in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance as a guest.
Boreham Wood, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Wealdstone |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Altrincham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Feb |
Yeovil |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Sutton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Woking is -0.216 and for the Boreham Wood is -0.292.
The home dynamic for the Woking is -0.017 and the dynamic as a guest for the Boreham Wood is 0.306.
The offensive ability for the Woking is 0.311 and for the Boreham Wood is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Woking is 0.111 and for the Boreham Wood is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Boreham Wood.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Woking |
22% |
36% |
24% |
18% |
|
Boreham Wood |
30% |
35% |
22% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.13 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.38 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.98 |
|
1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.92 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |
|
NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.75 |
3.18 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.35 |
3.94 |
3.11 |
|
4+ goals |
2.48 |
3.31 |
3.40 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.70 |
3.21 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.75 |
3.18 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.51 |
2.74 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.59 |
3.85 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.31 |
3.40 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.87 |
3.14 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.90 |
2.70 |
3.52 |
|
No Goal |
1.98 |
6.76 |
2.89 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
5.45 |
2.71 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.76 |
2.88 |
Go to Top
Wealdstone vs King’s Lynn at 09 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and King’s Lynn for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wealdstone |
2.54 |
2.16 |
6.9 |
|
Draw |
3.73 |
3.89 |
-1.1 |
|
King’s Lynn |
2.58 |
3.58 |
-10.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.99 |
-13.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.01 |
7.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (6.9 %, 7.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Wrexham |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
King’s Lynn in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance as a guest.
King’s Lynn, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Woking |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Mar |
Notts County |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Barnet |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Feb |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Bromley |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the Wealdstone is -0.44 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.483.
The home dynamic for the Wealdstone is -0.096 and the dynamic as a guest for the King’s Lynn is -0.617.
The offensive ability for the Wealdstone is 0.681 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.182.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wealdstone is 0.033 and for the King’s Lynn is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, King’s Lynn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wealdstone |
25% |
27% |
25% |
22% |
|
King’s Lynn |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.51 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.44 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Wealdstone to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.79 |
|
1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.91 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |
|
NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.93 |
3.18 |
2.90 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.94 |
4.86 |
3.59 |
|
4+ goals |
2.02 |
3.41 |
4.74 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.97 |
4.24 |
3.92 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.93 |
3.18 |
2.90 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
6.71 |
3.70 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
2.74 |
3.48 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.41 |
4.74 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
4.09 |
3.31 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.30 |
2.89 |
4.57 |
|
No Goal |
2.02 |
6.00 |
2.95 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
5.39 |
3.67 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
6.00 |
2.79 |
Go to Top
Solihull vs Stockport at 09 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Solihull and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Solihull |
3.02 |
2.15 |
13.4 |
|
Draw |
3.37 |
3.85 |
-3.7 |
|
Stockport |
2.34 |
3.64 |
-15.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.97 |
2.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.03 |
-6.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Solihull, Over 2.5 (13.4 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Solihull in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance at home.
Solihull, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Maidenhead |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Mar |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Feb |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Weymouth |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Feb |
Aldershot |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Stockport in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Weymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Chesterfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Feb |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Feb |
Maidenhead |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Feb |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Solihull is -0.304 and for the Stockport is -0.292.
The home dynamic for the Solihull is 0.096 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stockport is 0.078.
The offensive ability for the Solihull is 0.333 and for the Stockport is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Solihull is -0.556 and for the Stockport is 0.504.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Solihull and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Solihull |
22% |
31% |
25% |
22% |
|
Stockport |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.09 goals and Stockport to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.46 goals and Stockport to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.95 |
|
1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.86 |
|
3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |
|
NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.