Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
VVV Venlo vs Sparta Rotterdam at 09 March 2021
VVV Venlo vs Sparta Rotterdam at 09 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between VVV Venlo and Sparta Rotterdam for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
VVV Venlo |
3.10 |
2.72 |
4.5 |
|
Draw |
3.59 |
3.53 |
0.5 |
|
Sparta Rotterdam |
2.17 |
2.85 |
-11.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.91 |
-5.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.10 |
0.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at VVV Venlo, Draw, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 0.5 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
VVV Venlo in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance at home.
VVV Venlo, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Twente |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance as a guest.
Sparta Rotterdam, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Mar |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Feb |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Jan |
Twente |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the VVV Venlo is -0.864 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.742.
The home dynamic for the VVV Venlo is -0.391 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.067.
The offensive ability for the VVV Venlo is 0.607 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is 0.209.
Finally, the defensive ability for the VVV Venlo is -1 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.678.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, VVV Venlo and the red line for guest team, Sparta Rotterdam.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
VVV Venlo |
23% |
38% |
18% |
21% |
|
Sparta Rotterdam |
20% |
44% |
22% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.19 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the guest team Sparta Rotterdam to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.36 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
21.74 |
0-1 |
4.48 |
|
1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
3.47 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |
|
4 |
5.38 |
Un 1.5 |
4.48 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
|
6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
|
Gg |
1.62 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.47 |
|
NoG |
2.60 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.93 |
4.85 |
2.21 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.14 |
2.92 |
2.95 |
|
4+ goals |
2.13 |
4.11 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.27 |
3.12 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.93 |
4.85 |
2.21 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
7.49 |
2.63 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.26 |
2.23 |
3.16 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.13 |
4.11 |
3.47 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.07 |
3.33 |
2.67 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.59 |
3.74 |
|
No Goal |
2.51 |
8.35 |
2.08 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.41 |
2.72 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.76 |
8.35 |
2.05 |
Go to Top