2021 03 09 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ath Madrid vs Ath Bilbao at 10 March 2021


Ath Madrid vs Ath Bilbao at 10 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Ath Bilbao for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 10 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Madrid

1.56

1.61

-2.0

Draw

3.85

4.57

-4.1

Ath Bilbao

7.29

6.21

2.4

Over 2.5

2.51

1.98

10.7

Under 2.5

1.55

2.02

-15.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ath Bilbao, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 10.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance at home.
Ath Madrid, at home, had 9 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 30 points, 76.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Real Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Villarreal

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Levante

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Feb

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Granada

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Feb

Celta

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Cadiz

A

4

2

W

O

G

24 Jan

Valencia

H

3

1

W

O

G


Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance as a guest.
Ath Bilbao, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Granada

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Feb

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Feb

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

Cadiz

A

4

0

W

O

N

07 Feb

Valencia

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Barcelona

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Jan

Getafe

H

5

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Barcelona

H

2

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Ath Madrid is 0.096 and for the Ath Bilbao is 0.215.
The home dynamic for the Ath Madrid is 0.635 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ath Bilbao is -0.451.
The offensive ability for the Ath Madrid is 0.652 and for the Ath Bilbao is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Madrid is -0.444 and for the Ath Bilbao is -0.626.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Madrid and the red line for guest team, Ath Bilbao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Madrid

18%

22%

30%

30%

Ath Bilbao

53%

24%

16%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.56 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 0.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.71 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 0.78 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

3.91

1

6.29

2-3

1.94

2

4.18

4+

4.41

3

3.61

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.60

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

1.63

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.23

2.64

5.82

2-3 goals

1.34

9.92

6.53

4+ goals

1.91

3.24

5.97

Ov 1.5

1.47

6.09

6.35

Un 1.5

2.23

2.64

5.82

Ov 2.5

1.45

7.20

5.79

Un 2.5

1.82

3.32

6.69

Ov 3.5

1.91

3.24

5.97

Un 3.5

1.54

5.18

6.28

Goal-Goal

2.03

3.16

5.27

No Goal

1.43

6.33

6.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.75

4.76

4.56

NG+Un 2.5

1.63

6.33

5.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *