2021 03 09 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ipswich vs Lincoln at 09 March 2021
Swindon vs Oxford at 09 March 2021
Rochdale vs Shrewsbury at 09 March 2021
Portsmouth vs Sunderland at 09 March 2021
Plymouth vs Wigan at 09 March 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Blackpool at 09 March 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Gillingham at 09 March 2021
Crewe vs Doncaster at 09 March 2021
Charlton vs Northampton at 09 March 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Accrington at 09 March 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Burton at 09 March 2021
Peterboro vs Hull at 09 March 2021


Ipswich vs Lincoln at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ipswich and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ipswich

2.74

2.58

2.3

Draw

3.25

3.92

-5.3

Lincoln

2.62

2.79

-2.3

Over 2.5

2.16

1.87

7.2

Under 2.5

1.70

2.16

-12.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ipswich, Over 2.5 (2.3 %, 7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ipswich in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance at home.
Ipswich, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Gillingham

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Mar

Accrington

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Oxford

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Feb

Northampton

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Feb

Peterboro

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Blackpool

H

2

0

W

U

N


Lincoln in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Crewe

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Plymouth

A

3

4

L

O

G

23 Feb

Swindon

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Wigan

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

09 Feb

Hull

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Feb

Gillingham

A

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Ipswich is 0.264 and for the Lincoln is -0.091.
The home dynamic for the Ipswich is -0.148 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lincoln is 1.
The offensive ability for the Ipswich is 0.43 and for the Lincoln is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ipswich is 0.333 and for the Lincoln is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ipswich and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ipswich

29%

26%

27%

19%

Lincoln

24%

37%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.14 goals and Lincoln to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.36 goals and Lincoln to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.17

1

5.88

2-3

2.11

2

4.46

4+

3.48

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.17

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

32.26

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.48

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.81

3.43

2.24

2-3 goals

2.20

4.99

2.89

4+ goals

2.61

3.19

3.30

Ov 1.5

2.34

4.11

3.03

Un 1.5

3.81

3.43

2.24

Ov 2.5

2.08

5.97

2.84

Un 2.5

3.57

2.81

2.75

Ov 3.5

2.61

3.19

3.30

Un 3.5

2.57

4.33

2.63

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.91

3.80

No Goal

2.62

6.60

2.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.09

4.93

3.13

NG+Un 2.5

2.84

6.60

2.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swindon vs Oxford at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Oxford for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

3.65

2.68

9.9

Draw

3.46

3.72

-2.0

Oxford

2.04

2.79

-13.2

Over 2.5

1.98

2.01

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.83

1.99

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon (9.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Accrington

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Sunderland

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Lincoln

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Crewe

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Portsmouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Feb

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N


Oxford in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance as a guest.
Oxford, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Charlton

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Peterboro

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Portsmouth

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Ipswich

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Doncaster

A

2

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Swindon is -0.296 and for the Oxford is -0.1.
The home dynamic for the Swindon is -0.513 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oxford is 0.202.
The offensive ability for the Swindon is 0.356 and for the Oxford is -0.7.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swindon is -1 and for the Oxford is 0.243.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

28%

31%

24%

16%

Oxford

25%

37%

25%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 0.98 goals and Oxford to score 1.48 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the guest team Oxford to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.29 goals and Oxford to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.92

1

5.43

2-3

2.03

2

4.03

4+

3.95

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.23

3.59

2.43

2-3 goals

2.58

4.21

2.66

4+ goals

2.46

3.12

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.54

3.77

2.94

Un 1.5

3.23

3.59

2.43

Ov 2.5

2.13

6.15

2.72

Un 2.5

3.62

2.68

2.86

Ov 3.5

2.46

3.12

3.67

Un 3.5

2.77

3.98

2.58

Goal-Goal

2.80

2.72

3.64

No Goal

2.56

6.52

2.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

5.20

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

2.78

6.52

2.19


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rochdale vs Shrewsbury at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Shrewsbury for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rochdale

3.41

2.86

5.6

Draw

3.20

3.76

-4.7

Shrewsbury

2.23

2.60

-6.4

Over 2.5

2.16

1.99

4.0

Under 2.5

1.70

2.01

-9.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale, Over 2.5 (5.6 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rochdale in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale didn’t score to any of them. and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had one win, 7 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Sunderland

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Burton

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Northampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Plymouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Feb

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

4

L

O

G

06 Feb

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N


Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance as a guest.
Shrewsbury, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

H

4

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

Accrington

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Feb

Sunderland

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Feb

Crewe

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Rochdale is -0.824 and for the Shrewsbury is -0.167.
The home dynamic for the Rochdale is -0.983 and the dynamic as a guest for the Shrewsbury is 0.057.
The offensive ability for the Rochdale is -1 and for the Shrewsbury is 0.518.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rochdale is -0.078 and for the Shrewsbury is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Shrewsbury.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rochdale

30%

30%

23%

16%

Shrewsbury

23%

38%

26%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 0.98 goals and Shrewsbury to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the guest team Shrewsbury to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.25 goals and Shrewsbury to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.98

1

5.49

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

3.88

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.98

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.64

3.64

2.22

2-3 goals

2.74

4.31

2.48

4+ goals

2.53

3.11

3.53

Ov 1.5

2.67

3.80

2.76

Un 1.5

3.64

3.64

2.22

Ov 2.5

2.22

6.06

2.61

Un 2.5

4.04

2.72

2.60

Ov 3.5

2.53

3.11

3.53

Un 3.5

2.99

4.05

2.39

Goal-Goal

2.84

2.74

3.55

No Goal

2.88

6.68

1.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

5.12

2.80

NG+Un 2.5

3.11

6.68

2.01


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Portsmouth vs Sunderland at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Sunderland for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portsmouth

2.68

2.74

-0.8

Draw

3.31

3.89

-4.5

Sunderland

2.64

2.65

-0.1

Over 2.5

2.07

1.89

4.6

Under 2.5

1.76

2.12

-9.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portsmouth in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance at home.
Portsmouth, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Northampton

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 Mar

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Gillingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Oxford

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Blackpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 Feb

Swindon

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Plymouth

H

2

2

D

O

G


Sunderland in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance as a guest.
Sunderland, as a guest, had 7 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 28 points, 62.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Rochdale

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Swindon

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Crewe

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Fleetwood Town

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Burton

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Doncaster

H

4

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Shrewsbury

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Portsmouth is -0.624 and for the Sunderland is 1.
The home dynamic for the Portsmouth is -0.191 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sunderland is 0.731.
The offensive ability for the Portsmouth is 0.704 and for the Sunderland is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Portsmouth is -0.522 and for the Sunderland is 0.626.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portsmouth and the red line for guest team, Sunderland.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portsmouth

30%

26%

26%

18%

Sunderland

23%

38%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.18 goals and Sunderland to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.31 goals and Sunderland to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.13

1

5.78

2-3

2.10

2

4.37

4+

3.57

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.13

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.12

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.57

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.