# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Ipswich vs Lincoln at 09 March 2021**** Swindon vs Oxford at 09 March 2021**** Rochdale vs Shrewsbury at 09 March 2021**** Portsmouth vs Sunderland at 09 March 2021**** Plymouth vs Wigan at 09 March 2021**** Milton Keynes Dons vs Blackpool at 09 March 2021**** Fleetwood Town vs Gillingham at 09 March 2021**** Crewe vs Doncaster at 09 March 2021**** Charlton vs Northampton at 09 March 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Accrington at 09 March 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Burton at 09 March 2021**** Peterboro vs Hull at 09 March 2021**

###
Ipswich vs Lincoln at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ipswich** and **Lincoln** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ipswich |
2.74 |
2.58 |
2.3 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.92 |
-5.3 |

Lincoln |
2.62 |
2.79 |
-2.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.87 |
7.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.16 |
-12.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ipswich, Over 2.5 (2.3 %, 7.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ipswich** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ipswich** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance** at home**.

Ipswich,** at home**, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 56.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Doncaster |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Oxford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Blackpool |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** as a guest**.

Lincoln,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 73.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Crewe |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Plymouth |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Wigan |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Hull |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Gillingham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Ipswich** is **0.264** and for the **Lincoln** is **-0.091.**

The home dynamic for the **Ipswich** is **-0.148** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Lincoln** is **1.**

The offensive ability for the **Ipswich** is **0.43** and for the **Lincoln** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Ipswich** is **0.333** and for the **Lincoln** is **-0.539.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ipswich** and the red line for guest team, **Lincoln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ipswich |
29% |
26% |
27% |
19% |

Lincoln |
24% |
37% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ipswich** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ipswich** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.88 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.46 |
4+ |
3.48 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.48 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.81 |
3.43 |
2.24 |

2-3 goals |
2.20 |
4.99 |
2.89 |

4+ goals |
2.61 |
3.19 |
3.30 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.34 |
4.11 |
3.03 |

Un 1.5 |
3.81 |
3.43 |
2.24 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.97 |
2.84 |

Un 2.5 |
3.57 |
2.81 |
2.75 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.61 |
3.19 |
3.30 |

Un 3.5 |
2.57 |
4.33 |
2.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.54 |
2.91 |
3.80 |

No Goal |
2.62 |
6.60 |
2.14 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
4.93 |
3.13 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
6.60 |
2.18 |

####
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###
Swindon vs Oxford at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swindon** and **Oxford** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swindon |
3.65 |
2.68 |
9.9 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.72 |
-2.0 |

Oxford |
2.04 |
2.79 |
-13.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.01 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.99 |
-4.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swindon (9.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** at home**.

Swindon,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 43.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** as a guest**.

Oxford,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Doncaster |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Swindon** is **-0.296** and for the **Oxford** is **-0.1.**

The home dynamic for the **Swindon** is **-0.513** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Oxford** is **0.202.**

The offensive ability for the **Swindon** is **0.356** and for the **Oxford** is **-0.7.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Swindon** is **-1** and for the **Oxford** is **0.243.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swindon** and the red line for guest team, **Oxford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swindon |
28% |
31% |
24% |
16% |

Oxford |
25% |
37% |
25% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **0.98 ** goals and **Oxford** to score **1.48 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the guest team **Oxford ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Oxford** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.23 |
3.59 |
2.43 |

2-3 goals |
2.58 |
4.21 |
2.66 |

4+ goals |
2.46 |
3.12 |
3.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.77 |
2.94 |

Un 1.5 |
3.23 |
3.59 |
2.43 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
6.15 |
2.72 |

Un 2.5 |
3.62 |
2.68 |
2.86 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.12 |
3.67 |

Un 3.5 |
2.77 |
3.98 |
2.58 |

Goal-Goal |
2.80 |
2.72 |
3.64 |

No Goal |
2.56 |
6.52 |
2.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
5.20 |
2.84 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
6.52 |
2.19 |

####
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###
Rochdale vs Shrewsbury at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rochdale** and **Shrewsbury** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rochdale |
3.41 |
2.86 |
5.6 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.76 |
-4.7 |

Shrewsbury |
2.23 |
2.60 |
-6.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.99 |
4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.01 |
-9.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale, Over 2.5 (5.6 %, 4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale** didn’t score to any of them.** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** at home**.

Rochdale,** at home**, had one win, 7 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Burton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Plymouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** as a guest**.

Shrewsbury,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Rochdale** is **-0.824** and for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.167.**

The home dynamic for the **Rochdale** is **-0.983** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Shrewsbury** is **0.057.**

The offensive ability for the **Rochdale** is **-1** and for the **Shrewsbury** is **0.518.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rochdale** is **-0.078** and for the **Shrewsbury** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rochdale** and the red line for guest team, **Shrewsbury. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rochdale |
30% |
30% |
23% |
16% |

Shrewsbury |
23% |
38% |
26% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **0.98 ** goals and **Shrewsbury** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the guest team **Shrewsbury ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Shrewsbury** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.64 |
3.64 |
2.22 |

2-3 goals |
2.74 |
4.31 |
2.48 |

4+ goals |
2.53 |
3.11 |
3.53 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.80 |
2.76 |

Un 1.5 |
3.64 |
3.64 |
2.22 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.06 |
2.61 |

Un 2.5 |
4.04 |
2.72 |
2.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.11 |
3.53 |

Un 3.5 |
2.99 |
4.05 |
2.39 |

Goal-Goal |
2.84 |
2.74 |
3.55 |

No Goal |
2.88 |
6.68 |
1.99 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.12 |
2.80 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.11 |
6.68 |
2.01 |

####
Go to Top

###
Portsmouth vs Sunderland at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Portsmouth** and **Sunderland** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Portsmouth |
2.68 |
2.74 |
-0.8 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.89 |
-4.5 |

Sunderland |
2.64 |
2.65 |
-0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.89 |
4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.12 |
-9.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** at home**.

Portsmouth,** at home**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Feb |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** as a guest**.

Sunderland,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 28 points, 62.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Swindon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Crewe |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Burton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Doncaster |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.624** and for the **Sunderland** is **1.**

The home dynamic for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.191** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sunderland** is **0.731.**

The offensive ability for the **Portsmouth** is **0.704** and for the **Sunderland** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.522** and for the **Sunderland** is **0.626.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Portsmouth** and the red line for guest team, **Sunderland. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Portsmouth |
30% |
26% |
26% |
18% |

Sunderland |
23% |
38% |
24% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Sunderland** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Sunderland** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
3.57 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.12 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.57 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.