# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Mansfield vs Cheltenham at 09 March 2021**** Bolton vs Cambridge at 09 March 2021**** Carlisle vs Grimsby at 09 March 2021**** Crawley Town vs Salford at 09 March 2021**** Forest Green vs Morecambe at 09 March 2021**** Newport County vs Bradford at 09 March 2021**** Port Vale vs Oldham at 09 March 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Exeter at 09 March 2021**** Southend vs Tranmere at 09 March 2021**** Harrogate vs Colchester at 09 March 2021**** Leyton Orient vs Stevenage at 09 March 2021**

###
Mansfield vs Cheltenham at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mansfield** and **Cheltenham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mansfield |
2.85 |
2.89 |
-0.5 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.64 |
-3.6 |

Cheltenham |
2.52 |
2.64 |
-1.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.17 |
0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.85 |
-6.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** at home**.

Mansfield,** at home**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Feb |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Cheltenham,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 64.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Southend |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Scunthorpe |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Mansfield** is **-0.784** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.837.**

The home dynamic for the **Mansfield** is **-0.391** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cheltenham** is **0.813.**

The offensive ability for the **Mansfield** is **-0.385** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.636.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Mansfield** is **-0.478** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.217.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mansfield** and the red line for guest team, **Cheltenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mansfield |
31% |
34% |
23% |
12% |

Cheltenham |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.50 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.08 |
3.40 |
2.62 |

2-3 goals |
2.72 |
4.12 |
2.57 |

4+ goals |
3.05 |
3.14 |
2.82 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.82 |
3.75 |
2.64 |

Un 1.5 |
3.08 |
3.40 |
2.62 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
6.46 |
2.31 |

Un 2.5 |
3.44 |
2.66 |
3.00 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.05 |
3.14 |
2.82 |

Un 3.5 |
2.84 |
3.82 |
2.59 |

Goal-Goal |
3.24 |
2.64 |
3.20 |

No Goal |
2.60 |
5.92 |
2.24 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.47 |
5.39 |
2.44 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.68 |
5.92 |
2.34 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bolton vs Cambridge at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bolton** and **Cambridge** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bolton |
2.13 |
2.69 |
-9.8 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.61 |
-2.0 |

Cambridge |
3.51 |
2.84 |
6.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.24 |
-1.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.81 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cambridge (6.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** at home**.

Bolton,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Southend |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Cambridge** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Cambridge** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance** as a guest**.

Cambridge,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Salford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Bolton** is **0.784** and for the **Cambridge** is **0.148.**

The home dynamic for the **Bolton** is **-0.035** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cambridge** is **0.368.**

The offensive ability for the **Bolton** is **1** and for the **Cambridge** is **-0.182.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bolton** is **1** and for the **Cambridge** is **0.539.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bolton** and the red line for guest team, **Cambridge. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bolton |
30% |
32% |
25% |
13% |

Cambridge |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bolton** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Cambridge** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **Bolton ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bolton** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Cambridge** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.74 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.04 |
3.24 |
2.76 |

2-3 goals |
2.44 |
4.22 |
2.83 |

4+ goals |
2.93 |
3.06 |
3.01 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.79 |
2.88 |

Un 1.5 |
3.04 |
3.24 |
2.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.43 |
2.51 |

Un 2.5 |
3.21 |
2.67 |
3.19 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.93 |
3.06 |
3.01 |

Un 3.5 |
2.64 |
3.79 |
2.80 |

Goal-Goal |
3.03 |
2.62 |
3.46 |

No Goal |
2.44 |
5.59 |
2.44 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.35 |
2.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
5.59 |
2.52 |

####
Go to Top

###
Carlisle vs Grimsby at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Carlisle** and **Grimsby** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Carlisle |
1.58 |
2.03 |
-14.0 |

Draw |
3.92 |
3.88 |
0.3 |

Grimsby |
5.84 |
4.02 |
7.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.96 |
0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.04 |
-6.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Grimsby, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 7.8 %, 0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** at home**.

Carlisle,** at home**, had 9 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Tranmere |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** as a guest**.

Grimsby,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 24.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Crawley Town |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Carlisle** is **-1** and for the **Grimsby** is **-0.952.**

The home dynamic for the **Carlisle** is **0.165** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Grimsby** is **-1.**

The offensive ability for the **Carlisle** is **0.726** and for the **Grimsby** is **-0.245.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Carlisle** is **-1** and for the **Grimsby** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Carlisle** and the red line for guest team, **Grimsby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Carlisle |
19% |
32% |
28% |
21% |

Grimsby |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **0.69 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **1.06** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.12 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.74 |
3.42 |

2-3 goals |
1.90 |
4.39 |
4.07 |

4+ goals |
2.09 |
3.29 |
4.60 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
3.95 |
4.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.74 |
3.42 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.61 |
3.66 |

Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
2.73 |
4.43 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.29 |
4.60 |

Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
4.16 |
3.84 |

Goal-Goal |
2.41 |
2.79 |
4.42 |

No Goal |
1.71 |
7.17 |
3.61 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
5.45 |
3.47 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
7.17 |
3.40 |

####
Go to Top

###
Crawley Town vs Salford at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crawley Town** and **Salford** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **09 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crawley Town |
3.34 |
2.71 |
7.0 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.65 |
-3.7 |

Salford |
2.27 |
2.80 |
-8.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.22 |
-1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.82 |
-3.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crawley Town (7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** at home**.

Crawley Town,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** as a guest**.

Salford,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Southend |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.04** and for the **Salford** is **0.139.**

The home dynamic for the **Crawley Town** is **0.07** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Salford** is **-0.399.**

The offensive ability for the **Crawley Town** is **0.726** and for the **Salford** is **0.573.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crawley Town** is **0.556** and for the **Salford** is **0.157.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crawley Town** and the red line for guest team, **Salford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crawley Town |
31% |
30% |
26% |
12% |

Salford |
30% |
36% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1 ** goals and **Salford** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the guest team **Salford ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Salford** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.40 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.