2021 03 09 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Mansfield vs Cheltenham at 09 March 2021
Bolton vs Cambridge at 09 March 2021
Carlisle vs Grimsby at 09 March 2021
Crawley Town vs Salford at 09 March 2021
Forest Green vs Morecambe at 09 March 2021
Newport County vs Bradford at 09 March 2021
Port Vale vs Oldham at 09 March 2021
Scunthorpe vs Exeter at 09 March 2021
Southend vs Tranmere at 09 March 2021
Harrogate vs Colchester at 09 March 2021
Leyton Orient vs Stevenage at 09 March 2021


Mansfield vs Cheltenham at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mansfield and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mansfield

2.85

2.89

-0.5

Draw

3.22

3.64

-3.6

Cheltenham

2.52

2.64

-1.8

Over 2.5

2.19

2.17

0.4

Under 2.5

1.66

1.85

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mansfield in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance at home.
Mansfield, at home, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Barrow

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Bradford

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Morecambe

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Harrogate

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Cambridge

H

0

3

L

O

N

17 Feb

Bolton

H

2

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Colchester

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Feb

Walsall

A

1

1

D

U

G


Cheltenham in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 64.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Port Vale

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Mar

Southend

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Scunthorpe

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Bradford

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Walsall

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Forest Green

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Mansfield is -0.784 and for the Cheltenham is 0.837.
The home dynamic for the Mansfield is -0.391 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cheltenham is 0.813.
The offensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.385 and for the Cheltenham is 0.636.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mansfield is -0.478 and for the Cheltenham is 0.217.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mansfield and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mansfield

31%

34%

23%

12%

Cheltenham

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.09 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.18 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.50

1

4.95

2-3

2.04

2

3.94

4+

4.48

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.50

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.08

3.40

2.62

2-3 goals

2.72

4.12

2.57

4+ goals

3.05

3.14

2.82

Ov 1.5

2.82

3.75

2.64

Un 1.5

3.08

3.40

2.62

Ov 2.5

2.43

6.46

2.31

Un 2.5

3.44

2.66

3.00

Ov 3.5

3.05

3.14

2.82

Un 3.5

2.84

3.82

2.59

Goal-Goal

3.24

2.64

3.20

No Goal

2.60

5.92

2.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.47

5.39

2.44

NG+Un 2.5

2.68

5.92

2.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bolton vs Cambridge at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bolton and Cambridge for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bolton

2.13

2.69

-9.8

Draw

3.37

3.61

-2.0

Cambridge

3.51

2.84

6.7

Over 2.5

2.15

2.24

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.71

1.81

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cambridge (6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bolton in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance at home.
Bolton, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Bradford

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Oldham

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Scunthorpe

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Southend

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Mansfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Stevenage

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Morecambe

H

1

1

D

U

G


Cambridge in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance as a guest.
Cambridge, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Walsall

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Scunthorpe

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Port Vale

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Mansfield

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Feb

Salford

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Feb

Barrow

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Bolton is 0.784 and for the Cambridge is 0.148.
The home dynamic for the Bolton is -0.035 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cambridge is 0.368.
The offensive ability for the Bolton is 1 and for the Cambridge is -0.182.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bolton is 1 and for the Cambridge is 0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bolton and the red line for guest team, Cambridge.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bolton

30%

32%

25%

13%

Cambridge

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.36 goals and Cambridge to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Bolton to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.2 goals and Cambridge to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.36

1

4.85

2-3

2.04

2

3.89

4+

4.74

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.36

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.04

3.24

2.76

2-3 goals

2.44

4.22

2.83

4+ goals

2.93

3.06

3.01

Ov 1.5

2.57

3.79

2.88

Un 1.5

3.04

3.24

2.76

Ov 2.5

2.24

6.43

2.51

Un 2.5

3.21

2.67

3.19

Ov 3.5

2.93

3.06

3.01

Un 3.5

2.64

3.79

2.80

Goal-Goal

3.03

2.62

3.46

No Goal

2.44

5.59

2.44

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.31

5.35

2.64

NG+Un 2.5

2.54

5.59

2.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Carlisle vs Grimsby at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Carlisle

1.58

2.03

-14.0

Draw

3.92

3.88

0.3

Grimsby

5.84

4.02

7.8

Over 2.5

1.99

1.96

0.8

Under 2.5

1.80

2.04

-6.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Grimsby, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 7.8 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Carlisle in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Mar

Colchester

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Oldham

H

1

3

L

O

G

23 Feb

Tranmere

H

2

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Salford

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Harrogate

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Feb

Forest Green

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Exeter

H

1

0

W

U

N


Grimsby in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance as a guest.
Grimsby, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 24.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Forest Green

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Harrogate

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Crawley Town

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Newport County

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Stevenage

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Scunthorpe

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Carlisle is -1 and for the Grimsby is -0.952.
The home dynamic for the Carlisle is 0.165 and the dynamic as a guest for the Grimsby is -1.
The offensive ability for the Carlisle is 0.726 and for the Grimsby is -0.245.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Carlisle is -1 and for the Grimsby is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Carlisle

19%

32%

28%

21%

Grimsby

34%

36%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.75 goals and Grimsby to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.51 goals and Grimsby to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

4.12

1

5.62

2-3

1.98

2

4.02

4+

3.95

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.12

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.27

3.74

3.42

2-3 goals

1.90

4.39

4.07

4+ goals

2.09

3.29

4.60

Ov 1.5

1.96

3.95

4.23

Un 1.5

2.27

3.74

3.42

Ov 2.5

1.74

6.61

3.66

Un 2.5

2.45

2.73

4.43

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.29

4.60

Un 3.5

2.01

4.16

3.84

Goal-Goal

2.41

2.79

4.42

No Goal

1.71

7.17

3.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.89

5.45

3.47

NG+Un 2.5

1.88

7.17

3.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Crawley Town vs Salford at 09 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crawley Town and Salford for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crawley Town

3.34

2.71

7.0

Draw

3.22

3.65

-3.7

Salford

2.27

2.80

-8.3

Over 2.5

2.17

2.22

-1.0

Under 2.5

1.70

1.82

-3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crawley Town (7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crawley Town in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance at home.
Crawley Town, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Exeter

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Grimsby

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Colchester

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Harrogate

H

1

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Leyton Orient

H

0

0

D

U

N


Salford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance as a guest.
Salford, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Scunthorpe

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Port Vale

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Southend

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Feb

Morecambe

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Feb

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cambridge

H

4

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Oldham

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Crawley Town is -0.04 and for the Salford is 0.139.
The home dynamic for the Crawley Town is 0.07 and the dynamic as a guest for the Salford is -0.399.
The offensive ability for the Crawley Town is 0.726 and for the Salford is 0.573.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crawley Town is 0.556 and for the Salford is 0.157.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crawley Town and the red line for guest team, Salford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crawley Town

31%

30%

26%

12%

Salford

30%

36%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1 goals and Salford to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the guest team Salford to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.2 goals and Salford to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.40

1

4.98

2-3

2.03

2

3.91

4+

4.61

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.40

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.