2021 03 09 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Marseille vs Rennes at 10 March 2021


Marseille vs Rennes at 10 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Rennes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 10 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Marseille

2.63

2.33

4.9

Draw

3.25

3.73

-4.0

Rennes

2.82

3.31

-5.2

Over 2.5

2.35

2.41

-1.1

Under 2.5

1.62

1.71

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Marseille (4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Marseille in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 10 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Lille

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Feb

Nice

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Feb

Bordeaux

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Paris SG

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Feb

Lens

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Monaco

A

1

3

L

O

G


Rennes in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance as a guest.
Rennes, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Lyon

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Nice

H

1

2

L

O

G

21 Feb

Montpellier

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

St Etienne

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Lens

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Lorient

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Lille

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Brest

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Marseille is -0.264 and for the Rennes is -1.
The home dynamic for the Marseille is -0.078 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rennes is 0.202.
The offensive ability for the Marseille is 0.037 and for the Rennes is -0.245.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Marseille is -0.556 and for the Rennes is -0.652.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Rennes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Marseille

29%

29%

32%

10%

Rennes

37%

36%

13%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.12 goals and Rennes to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.23 goals and Rennes to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.26

0-1

3.11

1

4.67

2-3

2.03

2

3.80

4+

5.41

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.62

Un 1.5

3.11

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.41

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

5.41

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.95

2.98

3.07

2-3 goals

1.81

4.61

4.32

4+ goals

3.85

3.49

2.20

Ov 1.5

2.12

4.24

3.42

Un 1.5

2.95

2.98

3.07

Ov 2.5

2.06

7.83

2.58

Un 2.5

2.57

2.72

4.12

Ov 3.5

3.85

3.49

2.20

Un 3.5

2.14

3.79

3.72

Goal-Goal

2.71

2.78

3.68

No Goal

2.09

5.14

3.05

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

6.38

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

5.14

3.37


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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