2021 03 09 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Man City vs Southampton at 10 March 2021


Man City vs Southampton at 10 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 10 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man City

1.21

1.55

-18.1

Draw

7.02

4.44

8.3

Southampton

14.33

7.81

5.8

Over 2.5

1.48

2.14

-20.8

Under 2.5

2.60

1.88

14.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Southampton, Under 2.5 (8.3 %, 5.8 %, 14.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man City in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 11 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Man United

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Wolves

H

4

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

West Ham

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Arsenal

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Tottenham

H

3

0

W

O

N

07 Feb

Liverpool

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Burnley

A

2

0

W

U

N


Southampton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Sheffield United

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Mar

Everton

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Leeds

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Chelsea

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Wolves

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Newcastle

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Man United

A

0

9

L

O

N

30 Jan

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Man City is 0.576 and for the Southampton is -0.646.
The home dynamic for the Man City is 0.809 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is -0.326.
The offensive ability for the Man City is 0.607 and for the Southampton is 0.118.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Man City is -0.111 and for the Southampton is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man City

10%

43%

16%

31%

Southampton

50%

33%

12%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 2.75 goals and Southampton to score 0.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.18 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 2.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.69 goals and Southampton to score 0.71 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

19.61

0-1

3.33

1

4.02

2-3

2.01

2

4.31

4+

4.93

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.33

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

4.93

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.39

5.88

9.09

2-3 goals

1.72

3.53

7.32

4+ goals

1.43

5.97

7.52

Ov 1.5

1.63

4.01

7.38

Un 1.5

1.39

5.88

9.09

Ov 2.5

1.33

13.79

5.65

Un 2.5

1.80

2.77

11.82

Ov 3.5

1.43

5.97

7.52

Un 3.5

1.58

4.16

7.90

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.55

5.73

No Goal

1.22

10.86

11.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

9.00

3.92

NG+Un 2.5

1.33

10.86

8.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *