2021 03 09 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sp Braga vs Guimaraes at 10 March 2021


Sp Braga vs Guimaraes at 10 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Braga and Guimaraes for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 10 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Braga

1.61

2.49

-22.0

Draw

4.00

3.62

2.6

Guimaraes

5.40

3.10

13.7

Over 2.5

1.93

2.26

-7.6

Under 2.5

1.85

1.79

1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Guimaraes, Under 2.5 (2.6 %, 13.7 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Braga in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance at home.
Sp Braga, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

28 Feb

Nacional

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Tondela

H

4

2

W

O

G

14 Feb

Santa Clara

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Porto

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Feb

Portimonense

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Feb

Moreirense

A

4

0

W

O

N

26 Jan

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N


Guimaraes in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance as a guest.
Guimaraes, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Feb

Boavista

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Farense

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Rio Ave

H

1

3

L

O

G

08 Feb

Belenenses

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Benfica

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Jan

Maritimo

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Famalicao

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Sp Braga is 0.824 and for the Guimaraes is -0.263.
The home dynamic for the Sp Braga is 0.817 and the dynamic as a guest for the Guimaraes is 0.575.
The offensive ability for the Sp Braga is 1 and for the Guimaraes is 0.664.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Braga is -0.078 and for the Guimaraes is -0.678.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Braga and the red line for guest team, Guimaraes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Braga

28%

35%

21%

16%

Guimaraes

34%

34%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.76 goals and Guimaraes to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 1.03 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.24 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.24

1

4.67

2-3

2.09

2

4.02

4+

4.74

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.24

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.60

3.25

3.25

2-3 goals

2.43

4.02

2.95

4+ goals

2.48

3.40

3.30

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.81

3.05

Un 1.5

2.60

3.25

3.25

Ov 2.5

2.10

7.10

2.62

Un 2.5

2.92

2.61

3.65

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.40

3.30

Un 3.5

2.49

3.68

3.06

Goal-Goal

3.02

2.62

3.49

No Goal

2.15

5.52

2.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

5.73

2.61

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

5.52

2.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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