2021 03 09 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lamia vs Larisa at 10 March 2021


Lamia vs Larisa at 10 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lamia and Larisa for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 10 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lamia

2.08

2.21

-2.8

Draw

3.18

3.56

-3.4

Larisa

3.82

3.75

0.5

Over 2.5

2.69

2.53

2.4

Under 2.5

1.48

1.65

-7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Larisa, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lamia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance at home.
Lamia, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

28 Feb

Giannina

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Feb

Larisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

PAOK

A

0

4

L

O

N

18 Feb

Apollon

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Panathinaikos

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N


Larisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance as a guest.
Larisa, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

OFI Crete

A

3

2

W

O

G

28 Feb

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Lamia

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Atromitos

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

AEK

H

2

4

L

O

G

30 Jan

Volos NFC

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Jan

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Lamia is -0.12 and for the Larisa is 0.005.
The home dynamic for the Lamia is -0.574 and the dynamic as a guest for the Larisa is -0.751.
The offensive ability for the Lamia is -0.356 and for the Larisa is 0.245.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lamia is 0.922 and for the Larisa is -0.243.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lamia and the red line for guest team, Larisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lamia

32%

29%

21%

18%

Larisa

43%

33%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.21 goals and Larisa to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2 goals in the game and the home team Lamia to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.25 goals and Larisa to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Lamia to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.30

0-1

2.72

1

4.35

2-3

2.19

2

4.20

4+

5.68

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.58

4

8.55

Un 1.5

2.72

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.53

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.57

Ov 3.5

5.68

NoG

1.64

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.96

2.68

3.46

2-3 goals

1.90

4.71

3.81

4+ goals

1.98

3.74

4.40

Ov 1.5

1.92

4.40

3.96

Un 1.5

2.96

2.68

3.46

Ov 2.5

1.66

8.40

3.59

Un 2.5

2.81

2.59

3.88

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.74

4.40

Un 3.5

2.26

3.52

3.65

Goal-Goal

2.43

2.70

4.58

No Goal

2.09

4.46

3.38

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

6.21

3.44

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

4.46

3.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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