2021 03 09 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Villeurbanne vs Alba Berlin at 11 March 2021
Crvena Zvezda vs Khimki at 11 March 2021
Panathinaikos vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 11 March 2021
CSKA Moscow vs Olimpia Milano at 11 March 2021
Real Madrid vs Barcelona at 11 March 2021
Olympiacos vs Zenit at 12 March 2021
Valencia vs Fenerbahce at 12 March 2021
Anadolu Efes vs Zalgiris at 12 March 2021
Baskonia vs Bayern Munich at 12 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Villeurbanne vs Alba Berlin at 11 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Villeurbanne and Alba Berlin for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Villeurbanne

1.47

2.25

Alba Berlin

2.75

1.80

Villeurbanne HC

-4.5

2.50

Alba Berlin HC

+4.5

-2.50

Point Line

160.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 5

H

Fenerbahce

L

86

90

12

16

L 2

85

89

Mar 2

A

Zalgiris

L

75

85

12

15

L 1

77

87

Feb 26

A

FC Barcelona

W

76

69

12

14

W 6

82

68

Feb 19

H

Bayern Munich

W

87

79

11

14

W 5

89

80

Feb 5

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

78

69

10

14

W 4

79

67

Jan 29

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

78

9

14

W 3

81

84

Jan 27

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

83

77

8

14

W 2

85

77

Jan 21

H

Valencia Basket

W

90

77

7

14

W 1

86

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 5

A

BC Khimki

W

100

81

10

18

W 1

86

82

Mar 2

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

71

87

9

18

L 1

75

89

Feb 26

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

74

65

9

17

W 1

71

65

Feb 19

A

Fenerbahce

L

84

89

8

17

L 4

83

88

Feb 5

A

Bayern Munich

L

95

101

8

16

L 3

97

102

Jan 29

H

Real Madrid

L

63

72

8

15

L 2

65

71

Jan 27

H

CSKA Moscow

L

68

71

8

14

L 1

67

68

Jan 22

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

84

77

8

13

W 1

86

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Villeurbanne and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Villeurbanne.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Villeurbanne (in the first graph) and by Alba Berlin in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Villeurbanne will expected to score 80 points and the Alba Berlin 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Villeurbanne

Alba Berlin

FG%

0.55

0.53

ASS

16.30

20.20

DRB

20.90

19.90

AST-TO

1.16

1.45

TRB

28.30

28.30

FTM

13.30

10.60

BL

3.10

2.00

FTA

17.20

12.60

PF-Fewer

21.70

18.40

ST

6.80

6.80

TO-Fewer

14.00

13.90

Ftper

0.77

0.84

ORBper

0.35

0.42

ORB

7.40

8.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Crvena Zvezda vs Khimki at 11 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crvena Zvezda and Khimki for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Crvena Zvezda

1.3

2.20

Khimki

3.7

1.84

Crvena Zvezda HC

-7.5

2.00

Khimki HC

+7.5

-2.00

Point Line

166.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crvena Zvezda are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 5

A

Olympiacos

L

79

94

7

21

L 8

77

94

Mar 2

H

Bayern Munich

L

76

78

7

20

L 7

78

79

Feb 26

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

67

87

7

19

L 6

69

87

Feb 23

A

Zalgiris

L

62

75

7

18

L 5

64

77

Feb 19

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

75

76

7

17

L 4

79

78

Jan 29

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

78

81

7

16

L 3

77

83

Jan 26

A

Anadolu Efes

L

72

86

7

15

L 2

75

83

Jan 22

H

FC Barcelona

L

60

72

7

14

L 1

65

71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 5

H

Alba Berlin

L

81

100

3

24

L 1

78

102

Mar 2

H

Real Madrid

W

78

77

3

23

W 1

81

76

Feb 25

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

74

84

2

23

L 17

75

82

Feb 18

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

67

89

2

22

L 16

69

89

Jan 28

H

Fenerbahce

L

76

107

2

21

L 15

75

106

Jan 26

H

Bayern Munich

L

93

95

2

20

L 14

95

96

Jan 21

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

78

94

2

19

L 13

75

94

Jan 14

A

Anadolu Efes

L

60

99

2

18

L 12

62

95

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Crvena Zvezda and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Crvena Zvezda.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Crvena Zvezda (in the first graph) and by Khimki in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Crvena Zvezda will expected to score 82 points and the Khimki 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Crvena Zvezda

Khimki

FG%

0.51

0.53

ASS

14.40

18.70

DRB

19.10

20.10

AST-TO

1.18

1.42

TRB

27.30

27.90

FTM

14.00

12.60

BL

1.90

3.30

FTA

17.00

15.80

PF-Fewer

21.70

21.80

ST

6.50

6.90

TO-Fewer

12.20

13.20

Ftper

0.82

0.79

ORBper

0.43

0.39

ORB

8.20

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Panathinaikos vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 11 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Maccabi Tel Aviv for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

1.78

1.67

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.1

2.50

Panathinaikos HC

-1.5

-3.50

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

+1.5

3.50

Point Line

159.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 4

A

Bayern Munich

L

71

76

9

17

L 3

73

77

Mar 2

H

FC Barcelona

L

77

85

9

16

L 2

83

83

Feb 26

A

Alba Berlin

L

65

74

9

15

L 1

62

75

Feb 5

A

Olympiacos

W

88

77

9

14

W 2

86

77

Jan 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

91

72

8

14

W 1

87

69

Jan 27

A

Real Madrid

L

66

76

7

14

L 1

68

75

Jan 21

H

BC Khimki

W

94

78

7

13

W 1

80

79

Jan 15

A

Fenerbahce

L

74

100

6

13

L 1

73

99

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 4

H

Valencia Basket

W

84

72

11

15

W 1

81

69

Mar 2

H

CSKA Moscow

L

80

84

10

15

L 4

79

80

Feb 25

A

Bayern Munich

L

70

72

10

14

L 3

72

73

Feb 18

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

68

87

10

13

L 2

69

84

Jan 26

A

Fenerbahce

L

75

82

10

12

L 1

74

81

Jan 21

H

Real Madrid

W

86

84

10

11

W 2

89

83

Jan 14

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

91

82

9

11

W 1

94

82

Jan 12

H

Olympiacos

L

87

89

8

11

L 1

85

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by Maccabi Tel Aviv in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 79 points and the Maccabi Tel Aviv 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

17.60

16.10

DRB

21.20

22.30

AST-TO

1.35

1.24

TRB

31.20

30.90

FTM

14.20

12.70

BL

3.20

2.40

FTA

18.60

16.20

PF-Fewer

20.60

19.40

ST

6.60

7.10

TO-Fewer

13.00

13.00

Ftper

0.76

0.78

ORBper

0.47

0.39

ORB

9.90

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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CSKA Moscow vs Olimpia Milano at 11 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Olimpia Milano for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

CSKA Moscow

1.5

1.71

Olimpia Milano

2.65

2.41

CSKA Moscow HC

-4.5

-3.00

Olimpia Milano HC

+4.5

3.00

Point Line

158.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 4

A

Anadolu Efes

L

70

100

18

9

L 1

73

96

Mar 2

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

84

80

18

8

W 2

85

80

Feb 25

A

Olympiacos

W

75

74

17

8

W 1

73

74

Feb 4

A

Valencia Basket

L

103

105

16

8

L 2

99

101

Jan 29

H

Bayern Munich

L

66

69

16

7

L 1

68

70

Jan 27

A

Alba Berlin

W

71

68

16

6

W 1

68

69

Jan 22

H

Fenerbahce

L

83

89

15

6

L 2

82

88

Jan 15

H

FC Barcelona

L

75

88

15

5

L 1

81

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 5

A

Zalgiris

W

69

64

18

10

W 1

71

66

Mar 3

H

Fenerbahce

L

92

100

17

10

L 1

91

99

Feb 25

H

BC Khimki

W

84

74

17

9

W 1

72

75

Feb 22

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

79

16

9

L 1

74

81

Feb 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

87

68

16

8

W 1

88

68

Feb 5

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

69

78

15

8

L 1

68

80

Jan 28

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

82

76

15

7

W 6

86

78

Jan 26

H

Olympiacos

W

90

79

14

7

W 5

88

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by CSKA Moscow (in the first graph) and by Olimpia Milano in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, CSKA Moscow will expected to score 81 points and the Olimpia Milano 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

CSKA Moscow

Olimpia Milano

FG%

0.53

0.57

ASS

17.10

16.10

DRB

20.90

21.40

AST-TO

1.37

1.53

TRB

29.70

27.80

FTM

14.10

13.40

BL

2.70

2.30

FTA

17.00

16.70

PF-Fewer

22.10

19.70

ST

6.30

6.30

TO-Fewer

12.50

10.50

Ftper

0.83

0.80

ORBper

0.42

0.30

ORB

8.70

6.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Madrid vs Barcelona at 11 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Barcelona for EuroLeague, which will take place on 11 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Madrid

2.27

1.48

Barcelona

1.67

3.09

Real Madrid HC

+2.5

-5.50

Barcelona HC

-2.5

5.50

Point Line

156.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Mar 4

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

75

71

17

10

W 1

79

73

Mar 2

A

BC Khimki

L

77

78

16

10

L 1

66

79

Feb 25

H

Zalgiris

W

70

58

16

9

W 1

72

59

Feb 19

A

Valencia Basket

L

78

89

15