Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Mainz vs Freiburg at 13 March 2021
Union Berlin vs FC Koln at 13 March 2021
Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich at 13 March 2021
Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04 at 13 March 2021
Dortmund vs Hertha at 13 March 2021
RB Leipzig vs Ein Frankfurt at 14 March 2021
Stuttgart vs Hoffenheim at 14 March 2021
Leverkusen vs Bielefeld at 14 March 2021

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Mainz vs Freiburg at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mainz and Freiburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Freiburg, Over 2.5 (4 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mainz in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance at home.
Mainz, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

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Freiburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance as a guest.
Freiburg, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

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The form score for the Mainz is 0 and for the Freiburg is -0.17.
The home dynamic for the Mainz is -0.849 and the dynamic as a guest for the Freiburg is -0.166.
The offensive ability for the Mainz is -0.217 and for the Freiburg is -0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mainz is -0.181 and for the Freiburg is -0.631.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mainz and the red line for guest team, Freiburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.25 goals and Freiburg to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.24 goals and Freiburg to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Union Berlin vs FC Koln at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Union Berlin and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (9.4 %, 14.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Union Berlin in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Union Berlin in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance at home.
Union Berlin, at home, had 4 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

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FC Koln in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance as a guest.
FC Koln, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

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The form score for the Union Berlin is 0.022 and for the FC Koln is -0.237.
The home dynamic for the Union Berlin is 0.384 and the dynamic as a guest for the FC Koln is 0.109.
The offensive ability for the Union Berlin is -0.191 and for the FC Koln is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Union Berlin is 0.26 and for the FC Koln is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Union Berlin and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.4 goals and FC Koln to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Union Berlin to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.78 goals and FC Koln to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Union Berlin to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Werder Bremen and Bayern Munich for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Werder Bremen, Draw, Under 2.5 (24.6 %, 10.3 %, 15 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Werder Bremen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance at home.
Werder Bremen, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

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Bayern Munich in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bayern Munich in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance as a guest.
Bayern Munich, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

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The form score for the Werder Bremen is 0.207 and for the Bayern Munich is 0.496.
The home dynamic for the Werder Bremen is -0.351 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bayern Munich is 0.514.
The offensive ability for the Werder Bremen is 0.278 and for the Bayern Munich is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Werder Bremen is -0.181 and for the Bayern Munich is -0.657.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Werder Bremen and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 0.59 goals and Bayern Munich to score 3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.59 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 2.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.28 goals and Bayern Munich to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04 at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wolfsburg and Schalke 04 for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Schalke 04, Over 2.5 (0.6 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wolfsburg in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolfsburg in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance at home.
Wolfsburg, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 25 points, 75.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

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Schalke 04 in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance as a guest.
Schalke 04, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 12.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

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The form score for the Wolfsburg is 0.444 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.504.
The home dynamic for the Wolfsburg is 0.849 and the dynamic as a guest for the Schalke 04 is -0.66.
The offensive ability for the Wolfsburg is 0.626 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.356.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wolfsburg is 0.912 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolfsburg and the red line for guest team, Schalke 04.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolfsburg to score 2.34 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and the home team Wolfsburg to win by 1.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolfsburg to score 1.95 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.86 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team Wolfsburg to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.