# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Mainz vs Freiburg at 13 March 2021**** Union Berlin vs FC Koln at 13 March 2021**** Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich at 13 March 2021**** Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04 at 13 March 2021**** Dortmund vs Hertha at 13 March 2021**** RB Leipzig vs Ein Frankfurt at 14 March 2021**** Stuttgart vs Hoffenheim at 14 March 2021**** Leverkusen vs Bielefeld at 14 March 2021**

###
Mainz vs Freiburg at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mainz** and **Freiburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mainz |
2.67 |
3.03 |
-4.4 |

Draw |
3.38 |
3.86 |
-3.7 |

Freiburg |
2.69 |
2.43 |
4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
1.88 |
2.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.13 |
-6.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Freiburg, Over 2.5 (4 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mainz** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mainz** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance** at home**.

Mainz,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Mar |
Schalke 04 |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Augsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Freiburg** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Freiburg** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Freiburg,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

28 Feb |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Werder Bremen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Stuttgart |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Mainz** is **0** and for the **Freiburg** is **-0.17.**

The home dynamic for the **Mainz** is **-0.849** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Freiburg** is **-0.166.**

The offensive ability for the **Mainz** is **-0.217** and for the **Freiburg** is **-0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Mainz** is **-0.181** and for the **Freiburg** is **-0.631.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mainz** and the red line for guest team, **Freiburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mainz |
28% |
35% |
21% |
16% |

Freiburg |
26% |
30% |
23% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mainz** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Freiburg** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mainz** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Freiburg** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.50 |
4+ |
3.48 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
29.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.48 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.70 |
3.42 |
2.96 |

2-3 goals |
3.01 |
4.49 |
2.25 |

4+ goals |
3.42 |
3.50 |
2.37 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.15 |
4.05 |
2.29 |

Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.42 |
2.96 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.86 |
6.49 |
2.02 |

Un 2.5 |
3.25 |
2.66 |
3.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |
3.50 |
2.37 |

Un 3.5 |
2.90 |
4.05 |
2.45 |

Goal-Goal |
3.68 |
2.87 |
2.63 |

No Goal |
2.52 |
6.47 |
2.23 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.97 |
5.24 |
2.12 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
6.47 |
2.46 |

####
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###
Union Berlin vs FC Koln at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Union Berlin** and **FC Koln** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Union Berlin |
1.98 |
1.67 |
9.4 |

Draw |
3.37 |
4.39 |
-6.9 |

FC Koln |
4.17 |
5.81 |
-6.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.30 |
1.73 |
14.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
2.37 |
-18.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (9.4 %, 14.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Union Berlin** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Union Berlin** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance** at home**.

Union Berlin,** at home**, had 4 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Feb |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Schalke 04 |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Mainz |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**FC Koln** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Koln** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance** as a guest**.

FC Koln,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Stuttgart |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Bielefeld |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Union Berlin** is **0.022** and for the **FC Koln** is **-0.237.**

The home dynamic for the **Union Berlin** is **0.384** and the dynamic as a guest for the **FC Koln** is **0.109.**

The offensive ability for the **Union Berlin** is **-0.191** and for the **FC Koln** is **0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Union Berlin** is **0.26** and for the **FC Koln** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Union Berlin** and the red line for guest team, **FC Koln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Union Berlin |
13% |
27% |
29% |
31% |

FC Koln |
34% |
42% |
17% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Union Berlin** to score **1.4 ** goals and **FC Koln** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **Union Berlin ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Union Berlin** to score **1.78 ** goals and **FC Koln** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and the home team **Union Berlin ** to win by **0.8** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
22.73 |
0-1 |
5.29 |

1 |
6.90 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.38 |

3 |
3.53 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |

4 |
5.03 |
Un 1.5 |
5.29 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.36 |

Gg |
1.74 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |

NoG |
2.35 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.08 |
4.30 |
3.50 |

2-3 goals |
1.58 |
4.62 |
6.71 |

4+ goals |
1.64 |
4.05 |
7.05 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.60 |
4.39 |
6.83 |

Un 1.5 |
2.08 |
4.30 |
3.50 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.42 |
7.93 |
5.97 |

Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.71 |
5.57 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.64 |
4.05 |
7.05 |

Un 3.5 |
1.68 |
4.53 |
5.39 |

Goal-Goal |
1.89 |
3.11 |
6.62 |

No Goal |
1.44 |
9.68 |
4.95 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
6.36 |
5.33 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.63 |
9.68 |
4.09 |

####
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###
Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Werder Bremen** and **Bayern Munich** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Werder Bremen |
10.53 |
2.93 |
24.6 |

Draw |
6.54 |
3.91 |
10.3 |

Bayern Munich |
1.25 |
2.48 |
-39.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.34 |
1.85 |
-20.6 |

Under 2.5 |
3.24 |
2.18 |
15.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Werder Bremen, Draw, Under 2.5 (24.6 %, 10.3 %, 15 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Werder Bremen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Werder Bremen** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance** at home**.

Werder Bremen,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Mar |
Bielefeld |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Mar |
FC Koln |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Feb |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Freiburg |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Hertha |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Bayern Munich** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bayern Munich** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance** as a guest**.

Bayern Munich,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Dortmund |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
FC Koln |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Bielefeld |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Hertha |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Werder Bremen** is **0.207** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.496.**

The home dynamic for the **Werder Bremen** is **-0.351** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.514.**

The offensive ability for the **Werder Bremen** is **0.278** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Werder Bremen** is **-0.181** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **-0.657.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Werder Bremen** and the red line for guest team, **Bayern Munich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Werder Bremen |
29% |
36% |
15% |
21% |

Bayern Munich |
28% |
26% |
23% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Werder Bremen** to score **0.59 ** goals and **Bayern Munich** to score **3 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.59** goals in the game and the guest team **Bayern Munich ** to win by **2.41** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Werder Bremen** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Bayern Munich** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.24 |

2 |
4.95 |
4+ |
3.36 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |

6+ |
21.28 |
Un 2.5 |
2.19 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.36 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.19 |
3.36 |

2-3 goals |
3.23 |
4.74 |
2.08 |

4+ goals |
2.87 |
3.68 |
2.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.07 |
4.25 |
2.28 |

Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.19 |
3.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.70 |
6.69 |
2.08 |

Un 2.5 |
3.26 |
2.63 |
3.20 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.87 |
3.68 |
2.64 |

Un 3.5 |
2.96 |
4.03 |
2.42 |

Goal-Goal |
3.59 |
2.94 |
2.62 |

No Goal |
2.45 |
6.06 |
2.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.94 |
5.19 |
2.14 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
6.06 |
2.54 |

####
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###
Wolfsburg vs Schalke 04 at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wolfsburg** and **Schalke 04** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wolfsburg |
1.35 |
1.43 |
-4.1 |

Draw |
5.33 |
5.32 |
0.0 |

Schalke 04 |
9.37 |
8.85 |
0.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.63 |
0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.58 |
-4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Schalke 04, Over 2.5 (0.6 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wolfsburg** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolfsburg** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance** at home**.

Wolfsburg,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 25 points, 75.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Hoffenheim |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Hertha |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Bielefeld |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
M’gladbach |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Freiburg |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Schalke 04** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Schalke 04** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance** as a guest**.

Schalke 04,** as a guest**, had no wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 12.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Mar |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Stuttgart |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Dortmund |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.444** and for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.504.**

The home dynamic for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.849** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.66.**

The offensive ability for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.626** and for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.356.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.912** and for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.167.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wolfsburg** and the red line for guest team, **Schalke 04. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wolfsburg |
10% |
19% |
37% |
34% |

Schalke 04 |
36% |
47% |
13% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wolfsburg** to score **2.34 ** goals and **Schalke 04** to score **0.56 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.9** goals in the game and the home team **Wolfsburg ** to win by **1.78** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wolfsburg** to score **1.95 ** goals and **Schalke 04** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and the home team **Wolfsburg ** to win by **1.09** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
27.78 |
0-1 |
6.62 |

1 |
8.70 |
2-3 |
1.79 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.46 |

3 |
3.09 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.18 |

4 |
4.65 |
Un 1.5 |
6.62 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
2.59 |

Gg |
1.73 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.46 |

NoG |