2021 03 12 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Blackburn vs Brentford at 12 March 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Reading at 13 March 2021
Wycombe vs Preston at 13 March 2021
Rotherham vs Coventry at 13 March 2021
QPR vs Huddersfield at 13 March 2021
Middlesbrough vs Stoke at 13 March 2021
Luton vs Swansea at 13 March 2021
Derby vs Millwall at 13 March 2021
Cardiff vs Watford at 13 March 2021
Bournemouth vs Barnsley at 13 March 2021
Birmingham vs Bristol City at 13 March 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Norwich at 14 March 2021


Blackburn vs Brentford at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 12 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

3.45

2.73

7.6

Draw

3.46

3.70

-1.9

Brentford

2.11

2.75

-11.0

Over 2.5

1.96

2.11

-3.6

Under 2.5

1.87

1.90

-0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackburn (7.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackburn in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance at home.
Blackburn, at home, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Swansea

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Millwall

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Reading

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Coventry

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Feb

Watford

H

2

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Nott’m Forest

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Feb

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Feb

Preston

H

1

2

L

O

G


Brentford in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Stoke

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

Coventry

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Feb

QPR

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Barnsley

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Feb

Reading

A

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Middlesbrough

A

4

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Blackburn is -0.274 and for the Brentford is -0.281.
The home dynamic for the Blackburn is 0.157 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brentford is 0.247.
The offensive ability for the Blackburn is 0.278 and for the Brentford is 0.015.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackburn is -0.559 and for the Brentford is -0.597.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

29%

33%

23%

14%

Brentford

29%

32%

25%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.03 goals and Brentford to score 1.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Brentford to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.23 goals and Brentford to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.62

1

5.24

2-3

2.04

2

4.02

4+

4.26

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.62

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.85

3.25

2.94

2-3 goals

2.63

4.53

2.51

4+ goals

2.83

3.05

3.13

Ov 1.5

2.69

3.91

2.68

Un 1.5

2.85

3.25

2.94

Ov 2.5

2.36

6.17

2.41

Un 2.5

3.18

2.72

3.14

Ov 3.5

2.83

3.05

3.13

Un 3.5

2.70

3.96

2.65

Goal-Goal

3.17

2.71

3.17

No Goal

2.40

5.87

2.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.49

5.10

2.49

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

5.87

2.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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<a id=‘Nott’m Forest’>

Nott’m Forest vs Reading at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nott’m Forest and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nott’m Forest

2.66

2.43

3.6

Draw

3.13

3.56

-3.9

Reading

2.84

3.26

-4.5

Over 2.5

2.53

2.30

4.0

Under 2.5

1.55

1.77

-8.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nott’m Forest, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nott’m Forest in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nott’m Forest in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance at home.
Nott’m Forest, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Watford

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Feb

Derby

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Bournemouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Wycombe

A

3

0

W

O

N


Reading in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance as a guest.
Reading, as a guest, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Sheffield Weds

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Middlesbrough

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Bristol City

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Millwall

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Feb

Brentford

H

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Nott’m Forest is -0.207 and for the Reading is 0.385.
The home dynamic for the Nott’m Forest is -0.124 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reading is -0.004.
The offensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is -0.217 and for the Reading is 0.385.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is -0.269 and for the Reading is 0.605.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nott’m Forest and the red line for guest team, Reading.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nott’m Forest

28%

37%

17%

19%

Reading

36%

36%

16%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.07 goals and Reading to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.26 goals and Reading to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.05

1

4.35

2-3

2.18

2

4.22

4+

4.67

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.05

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.35

3.35

2-3 goals

2.49

3.44

3.25

4+ goals

2.23

4.28

3.15

Ov 1.5

2.40

3.67

3.22

Un 1.5

2.48

3.35

3.35

Ov 2.5

1.97

8.70

2.65

Un 2.5

2.96

2.45

3.95

Ov 3.5

2.23

4.28

3.15

Un 3.5

2.49

3.40

3.29

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.55

3.62

No Goal

2.07

5.44

2.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

6.68

2.59

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

5.44

3.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wycombe vs Preston at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Preston for Championship (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wycombe

3.57

2.79

7.8

Draw

3.38

3.65

-2.2

Preston

2.08

2.72

-11.3

Over 2.5

2.06

2.23

-3.7

Under 2.5

1.77

1.81

-1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe (7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

QPR

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Stoke

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Mar

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Feb

Norwich

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Reading

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Millwall

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Feb

Derby

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Huddersfield

A

3

2

W

O

G


Preston in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance as a guest.
Preston, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 49.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Bournemouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Millwall

A

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Huddersfield

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Feb

QPR

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Cardiff

A

0

4

L

O

N

16 Feb

Watford

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Feb

Blackburn

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Rotherham

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Wycombe is -0.57 and for the Preston is -0.296.
The home dynamic for the Wycombe is -0.438 and the dynamic as a guest for the Preston is -0.028.
The offensive ability for the Wycombe is -1 and for the Preston is 0.111.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wycombe is -0.322 and for the Preston is -0.227.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Preston.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wycombe

32%

34%

18%

15%

Preston

32%

32%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 0.97 goals and Preston to score 1.42 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Preston to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.17 goals and Preston to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.18

1

4.69

2-3

2.15

2

4.22

4+

4.57

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.18

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.85

3.11

3.05

2-3 goals

2.77

4.19

2.50

4+ goals

2.70

3.59

2.84

Ov 1.5

2.75

3.98

2.60

Un 1.5

2.85

3.11

3.05

Ov 2.5

2.35

7.33

2.28

Un 2.5

3.26

2.60

3.24

Ov 3.5

2.70

3.59

2.84

Un 3.5

2.80

3.67

2.70

Goal-Goal

3.28

2.69

3.09

No Goal

2.45

5.30

2.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.50

5.77

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

5.30

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rotherham vs Coventry at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rotherham and Coventry for Championship (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rotherham

2.79

2.14

10.9

Draw

3.22

3.76

-4.5

Coventry

2.63

3.75

-11.4

Over 2.5

1.94

2.08

-3.5

Under 2.5

1.88

1.92

-1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rotherham (10.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rotherham in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance at home.
Rotherham, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Mar

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Reading

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Feb

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Cardiff

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Preston

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Derby

H

3

0

W

O

N


Coventry in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance as a guest.
Coventry, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 21.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Middlesbrough

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Feb

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Brentford

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Norwich

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Cardiff

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Watford

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Rotherham is -0.607 and for the Coventry is -0.133.
The home dynamic for the Rotherham is -0.265 and the dynamic as a guest for the Coventry is -0.36.
The offensive ability for the Rotherham is -0.565 and for the Coventry is 0.407.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rotherham is -1 and for the Coventry is -0.202.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rotherham and the red line for guest team, Coventry.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rotherham

22%

32%

26%

19%

Coventry

33%

39%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.23 goals and Coventry to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.42 goals and Coventry to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Rotherham to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.73

1

5.15

2-3

2.00

2

3.95

4+

4.26

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.73

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals