2021 03 12 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Hartlepool vs Eastleigh at 13 March 2021
Yeovil vs Woking at 13 March 2021
Wrexham vs Weymouth at 13 March 2021
Boreham Wood vs Torquay at 13 March 2021
Maidenhead vs Chesterfield at 13 March 2021
Halifax vs Solihull at 13 March 2021
Bromley vs Barnet at 13 March 2021
Stockport vs Dag and Red at 13 March 2021


Hartlepool vs Eastleigh at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hartlepool and Eastleigh for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hartlepool

1.90

2.12

-5.5

Draw

3.42

3.89

-3.5

Eastleigh

3.73

3.68

0.4

Over 2.5

1.98

1.98

0.0

Under 2.5

1.79

2.02

-6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh (0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hartlepool in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance at home.
Hartlepool, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 29 points, 69.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Altrincham

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Torquay

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Halifax

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Barnet

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Yeovil

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Feb

Eastleigh

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N


Eastleigh in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance as a guest.
Eastleigh, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Wealdstone

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Hartlepool

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Yeovil

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Solihull

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Feb

Wrexham

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Hartlepool is 0.481 and for the Eastleigh is 0.059.
The home dynamic for the Hartlepool is 0.243 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eastleigh is 0.061.
The offensive ability for the Hartlepool is 0.652 and for the Eastleigh is 0.281.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Hartlepool is 0.172 and for the Eastleigh is 0.09.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hartlepool and the red line for guest team, Eastleigh.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hartlepool

23%

29%

25%

22%

Eastleigh

33%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.51 goals and Eastleigh to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Hartlepool to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.46 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Hartlepool to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.91

1

5.56

2-3

2.05

2

4.22

4+

3.88

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.91

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.37

3.05

2-3 goals

1.96

4.59

3.66

4+ goals

2.03

3.44

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.99

4.12

3.94

Un 1.5

2.67

3.37

3.05

Ov 2.5

1.74

6.77

3.60

Un 2.5

2.75

2.71

3.73

Ov 3.5

2.03

3.44

4.61

Un 3.5

2.16

4.08

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.36

2.86

4.42

No Goal

1.92

6.37

3.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.48

3.51

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.37

2.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Yeovil vs Woking at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Yeovil

2.17

2.09

1.8

Draw

3.39

3.92

-4.0

Woking

3.04

3.76

-6.3

Over 2.5

1.89

1.97

-2.1

Under 2.5

1.88

2.03

-3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Yeovil (1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Yeovil in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance at home.
Yeovil, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Sutton

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Chesterfield

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Barnet

A

4

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Dag and Red

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Weymouth

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Hartlepool

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Altrincham

H

2

0

W

U

N


Woking in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Boreham Wood

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Altrincham

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Wrexham

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Stockport

H

1

4

L

O

G

26 Jan

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Yeovil is -0.037 and for the Woking is -0.111.
The home dynamic for the Yeovil is -0.038 and the dynamic as a guest for the Woking is -0.36.
The offensive ability for the Yeovil is 0.565 and for the Woking is -0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Yeovil is -0.621 and for the Woking is 0.262.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Yeovil

23%

28%

26%

23%

Woking

34%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.42 goals and Woking to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.48 goals and Woking to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.88

1

5.59

2-3

2.06

2

4.26

4+

3.88

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.88

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.74

3.27

3.04

2-3 goals

1.90

4.75

3.79

4+ goals

1.98

3.44

4.87

Ov 1.5

1.93

4.20

4.10

Un 1.5

2.74

3.27

3.04

Ov 2.5

1.69

6.77

3.82

Un 2.5

2.75

2.72

3.71

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.44

4.87

Un 3.5

2.13

4.10

3.49

Goal-Goal

2.29

2.88

4.64

No Goal

1.92

6.22

3.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

5.44

3.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

6.22

2.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Weymouth at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Weymouth for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

1.70

1.98

-8.3

Draw

3.58

3.98

-2.8

Weymouth

4.73

4.10

3.2

Over 2.5

2.01

1.95

1.5

Under 2.5

1.80

2.05

-6.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Weymouth, Over 2.5 (3.2 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Mar

Sutton

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Wealdstone

H

4

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Hartlepool

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Aldershot

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Feb

Woking

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Altrincham

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Dag and Red

H

2

2

D

O

G


Weymouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance as a guest.
Weymouth, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Yeovil

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Feb

Solihull

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Bromley

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Aldershot

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Wrexham is 0.356 and for the Weymouth is 0.037.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.373 and the dynamic as a guest for the Weymouth is -0.401.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is -0.157 and for the Weymouth is 0.407.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.612 and for the Weymouth is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Weymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

21%

29%

26%

24%

Weymouth

35%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.64 goals and Weymouth to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.53 goals and Weymouth to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

4.00

1

5.65

2-3

2.03

2

4.22

4+

3.85

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.00

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.42

3.25

2-3 goals

1.83

4.64

4.21

4+ goals

1.90

3.56

5.20

Ov 1.5

1.85

4.20

4.50

Un 1.5

2.50

3.42

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.63

7.05

4.09

Un 2.5

2.56

2.72

4.13

Ov 3.5

1.90

3.56

5.20

Un 3.5

2.01

4.15

3.82

Goal-Goal

2.23

2.89

4.84

No Goal

1.77

6.63

3.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.78

5.64

3.85

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

6.63

3.23


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Boreham Wood vs Torquay at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boreham Wood and Torquay for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boreham Wood

2.79

3.09

-3.5

Draw

3.47

3.64

-1.3

Torquay

2.44

2.49

-0.8

Over 2.5

1.92

2.00

-2.1

Under 2.5

1.90

2.00

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boreham Wood in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boreham Wood in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance at home.
Boreham Wood, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Dag and Red

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Mar

Wealdstone

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Solihull

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Feb

Bromley

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Altrincham

A

3

2

W

O

G

16 Feb

Yeovil

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Sutton

A

0

2

L

U

N


Torquay in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance as a guest.
Torquay, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Solihull

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Halifax

H

2

3

L

O

G

09 Feb

Wealdstone

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Feb

Altrincham

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Notts County

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Boreham Wood is -0.037 and for the Torquay is -0.2.
The home dynamic for the Boreham Wood is -0.243 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torquay is 0.36.
The offensive ability for the Boreham Wood is 0.13 and for the Torquay is 0.607.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Boreham Wood is -0.533 and for the Torquay is -0.682.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boreham Wood and the red line for guest team, Torquay.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boreham Wood

25%

42%

21%

12%

Torquay

24%

34%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.2 goals and Torquay to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.2 goals and Torquay to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.03

1

5.35

2-3

1.99

2

3.94

4+

3.98

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.03

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.31

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.41

4.07

2.95