2021 03 12 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk at 13 March 2021
Groningen vs FC Emmen at 13 March 2021
Den Haag vs Heracles at 13 March 2021
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente at 13 March 2021
Willem II vs Heerenveen at 13 March 2021
Utrecht vs Vitesse at 14 March 2021
VVV Venlo vs For Sittard at 14 March 2021
Zwolle vs Ajax at 14 March 2021
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord at 14 March 2021


Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sparta Rotterdam

1.91

2.10

-4.7

Draw

3.56

4.13

-3.9

Waalwijk

3.87

3.57

2.2

Over 2.5

1.92

1.59

10.8

Under 2.5

1.92

2.69

-14.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (2.2 %, 10.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance at home.
Sparta Rotterdam, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

VVV Venlo

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Mar

FC Emmen

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Feb

Willem II

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Feb

Ajax

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Feb

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Den Haag

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Jan

Twente

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Utrecht

A

0

1

L

U

N


Waalwijk in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance as a guest.
Waalwijk, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Utrecht

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Den Haag

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Heracles

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Feb

FC Emmen

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Vitesse

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.281 and for the Waalwijk is 0.133.
The home dynamic for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.503 and the dynamic as a guest for the Waalwijk is -0.441.
The offensive ability for the Sparta Rotterdam is 0.591 and for the Waalwijk is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.533 and for the Waalwijk is 0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sparta Rotterdam and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sparta Rotterdam

19%

21%

32%

28%

Waalwijk

27%

33%

23%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.59 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Sparta Rotterdam to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.68 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and the home team Sparta Rotterdam to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

19.23

0-1

5.85

1

8.40

2-3

2.17

2

5.00

4+

2.72

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.21

4

4.98

Un 1.5

5.85

5

8.40

Ov 2.5

1.59

6+

21.28

Un 2.5

2.70

Gg

1.70

Ov 3.5

2.72

NoG

2.43

Un 3.5

1.58

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.05

3.29

2.71

2-3 goals

1.74

6.78

3.60

4+ goals

2.35

3.01

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.97

4.36

3.82

Un 1.5

3.05

3.29

2.71

Ov 2.5

1.87

5.15

3.67

Un 2.5

2.61

3.09

3.40

Ov 3.5

2.35

3.01

4.12

Un 3.5

1.97

5.27

3.31

Goal-Goal

2.26

3.09

4.26

No Goal

1.89

7.90

2.89

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

4.26

3.77

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

7.90

2.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Groningen vs FC Emmen at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Groningen and FC Emmen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Groningen

1.88

1.59

9.7

Draw

3.51

4.90

-8.1

FC Emmen

4.12

6.02

-7.7

Over 2.5

2.00

1.57

13.7

Under 2.5

1.84

2.75

-18.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Groningen, Over 2.5 (9.7 %, 13.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Groningen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance at home.
Groningen, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 64.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Ajax

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Feb

For Sittard

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Feb

Feyenoord

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Feb

Heerenveen

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Zwolle

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Heracles

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Den Haag

H

3

0

W

O

N

23 Jan

Vitesse

A

0

1

L

U

N


FC Emmen in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance as a guest.
FC Emmen, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Mar

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Utrecht

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Zwolle

H

3

2

W

O

G

12 Feb

Waalwijk

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Willem II

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Den Haag

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Groningen is 0 and for the FC Emmen is -0.089.
The home dynamic for the Groningen is 0.341 and the dynamic as a guest for the FC Emmen is -0.749.
The offensive ability for the Groningen is 0.278 and for the FC Emmen is 0.111.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Groningen is 0.207 and for the FC Emmen is -0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Groningen and the red line for guest team, FC Emmen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Groningen

10%

20%

32%

38%

FC Emmen

46%

20%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.56 goals and FC Emmen to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.98 goals and FC Emmen to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

21.28

0-1

6.37

1

9.09

2-3

2.00

2

4.85

4+

2.91

3

3.41

Ov 1.5

1.19

4

5.95

Un 1.5

6.37

5

8.13

Ov 2.5

1.57

6+

18.87

Un 2.5

2.75

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

2.91

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.52

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.74

3.34

7.85

2-3 goals

1.30

12.79

6.65

4+ goals

2.22

2.92

4.85

Ov 1.5

1.56

5.37

5.77

Un 1.5

1.74

3.34

7.85

Ov 2.5

1.62

5.40

5.10

Un 2.5

1.54

4.22

8.85

Ov 3.5

2.22

2.92

4.85

Un 3.5

1.38

7.63

6.91

Goal-Goal

2.23

3.10

4.38

No Goal

1.25

10.94

9.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

3.79

4.03

NG+Un 2.5

1.37

10.94

7.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Den Haag vs Heracles at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Den Haag and Heracles for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Den Haag

4.63

2.55

17.6

Draw

3.77

3.92

-1.0

Heracles

1.73

2.83

-22.5

Over 2.5

1.96

1.59

11.9

Under 2.5

1.87

2.70

-16.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Den Haag, Over 2.5 (17.6 %, 11.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Den Haag in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance at home.
Den Haag, at home, had no wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Heerenveen

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Feb

Waalwijk

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Feb

Willem II

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

For Sittard

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Groningen

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

FC Emmen

H

0

0

D

U

N


Heracles in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance as a guest.
Heracles, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Zwolle

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Twente

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Waalwijk

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Ajax

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Feb

For Sittard

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Groningen

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Zwolle

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Heerenveen

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Den Haag is -0.356 and for the Heracles is 0.148.
The home dynamic for the Den Haag is -0.859 and the dynamic as a guest for the Heracles is -0.271.
The offensive ability for the Den Haag is -0.278 and for the Heracles is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Den Haag is -0.559 and for the Heracles is -0.339.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Den Haag and the red line for guest team, Heracles.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Den Haag

19%

34%

18%

28%

Heracles

21%

31%

26%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Den Haag to score 0.82 goals and Heracles to score 1.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Heracles to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.56 goals and Heracles to score 1.47 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

24.39

0-1

5.78

1

7.58

2-3

2.24

2

5.08

4+

2.61

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.21

4

4.78

Un 1.5

5.78

5

8.77

Ov 2.5

1.58

6+

16.67

Un 2.5

2.70

Gg

1.57

Ov 3.5

2.61

NoG

2.74

Un 3.5

1.62

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

4.22

2.93

2-3 goals

2.84

4.21

2.44

4+ goals

2.36

3.51

3.42

Ov 1.5

2.60

3.86

2.81

Un 1.5

2.37

4.22

2.93

Ov 2.5

2.27

5.80

2.59

Un 2.5

3.27

2.52

3.36

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.51

3.42

Un 3.5

2.69

4.21

2.56

Goal-Goal

2.91

2.96

3.14

No Goal

2.11

8.90

2.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.42

4.87

2.62

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

8.90

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


AZ Alkmaar vs Twente at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AZ Alkmaar and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AZ Alkmaar

1.43

2.30

-26.5

Draw

4.67

3.75

5.3

Twente

6.55

3.36

14.5

Over 2.5

1.54

1.93

-13.1

Under 2.5

2.40

2.08

6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Twente, Under 2.5 (5.3 %, 14.5 %, 6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AZ Alkmaar in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AZ Alkmaar in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance at home.
AZ Alkmaar, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Mar

Vitesse

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Feb

Feyenoord

H

4

2

W

O

G

20 Feb

VVV Venlo

A

4

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Heerenveen

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

FC Emmen

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Ajax

H

0

3

L

O

N

27 Jan

Utrecht

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Feyenoord

A

3

2

W

O

G


Twente in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Twente in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance as a guest.
Twente, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Willem II

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Feb

Heracles

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Feb

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Vitesse

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Heerenveen

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the AZ Alkmaar is 0.333 and for the Twente is 0.015.
The home dynamic for the AZ Alkmaar is 0.146 and the dynamic as a guest for the Twente is 0.247.
The offensive ability for the AZ Alkmaar is 0.678 and for the Twente is 0.43.
Finally, the defensive ability for the AZ Alkmaar is -0.648 and for the Twente is -0.313.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AZ Alkmaar and the red line for guest team, Twente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AZ Alkmaar

23%

31%

25%

21%

Twente

25%

44%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AZ Alkmaar to score 2.3 goals and Twente to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.04 goals in the game and the home team AZ Alkmaar to win by 1.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AZ Alkmaar to score 1.44 goals and Twente to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.20

1

5.56

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.72

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.68

Un 1.5

4.20

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.74

Ov 3.5

3.72