# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk at 13 March 2021**** Groningen vs FC Emmen at 13 March 2021**** Den Haag vs Heracles at 13 March 2021**** AZ Alkmaar vs Twente at 13 March 2021**** Willem II vs Heerenveen at 13 March 2021**** Utrecht vs Vitesse at 14 March 2021**** VVV Venlo vs For Sittard at 14 March 2021**** Zwolle vs Ajax at 14 March 2021**** PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord at 14 March 2021**

###
Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sparta Rotterdam** and **Waalwijk** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sparta Rotterdam |
1.91 |
2.10 |
-4.7 |

Draw |
3.56 |
4.13 |
-3.9 |

Waalwijk |
3.87 |
3.57 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.59 |
10.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.69 |
-14.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (2.2 %, 10.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance** at home**.

Sparta Rotterdam,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Mar |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Feb |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Jan |
Twente |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** as a guest**.

Waalwijk,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Feb |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.281** and for the **Waalwijk** is **0.133.**

The home dynamic for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.503** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.441.**

The offensive ability for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **0.591** and for the **Waalwijk** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sparta Rotterdam** is **-0.533** and for the **Waalwijk** is **0.202.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sparta Rotterdam** and the red line for guest team, **Waalwijk. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sparta Rotterdam |
19% |
21% |
32% |
28% |

Waalwijk |
27% |
33% |
23% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Sparta Rotterdam ** to win by **0.64** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.68 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.98** goals in the game and the home team **Sparta Rotterdam ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
19.23 |
0-1 |
5.85 |

1 |
8.40 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
5.00 |
4+ |
2.72 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.21 |

4 |
4.98 |
Un 1.5 |
5.85 |

5 |
8.40 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.59 |

6+ |
21.28 |
Un 2.5 |
2.70 |

Gg |
1.70 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.72 |

NoG |
2.43 |
Un 3.5 |
1.58 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.05 |
3.29 |
2.71 |

2-3 goals |
1.74 |
6.78 |
3.60 |

4+ goals |
2.35 |
3.01 |
4.12 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.97 |
4.36 |
3.82 |

Un 1.5 |
3.05 |
3.29 |
2.71 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
5.15 |
3.67 |

Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
3.09 |
3.40 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.01 |
4.12 |

Un 3.5 |
1.97 |
5.27 |
3.31 |

Goal-Goal |
2.26 |
3.09 |
4.26 |

No Goal |
1.89 |
7.90 |
2.89 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
4.26 |
3.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
7.90 |
2.78 |

####
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###
Groningen vs FC Emmen at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Groningen** and **FC Emmen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Groningen |
1.88 |
1.59 |
9.7 |

Draw |
3.51 |
4.90 |
-8.1 |

FC Emmen |
4.12 |
6.02 |
-7.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
1.57 |
13.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.75 |
-18.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Groningen, Over 2.5 (9.7 %, 13.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Groningen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Groningen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance** at home**.

Groningen,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 64.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** as a guest**.

FC Emmen,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Mar |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Zwolle |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Feb |
Waalwijk |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Groningen** is **0** and for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.089.**

The home dynamic for the **Groningen** is **0.341** and the dynamic as a guest for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.749.**

The offensive ability for the **Groningen** is **0.278** and for the **FC Emmen** is **0.111.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Groningen** is **0.207** and for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.571.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Groningen** and the red line for guest team, **FC Emmen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Groningen |
10% |
20% |
32% |
38% |

FC Emmen |
46% |
20% |
20% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Groningen** to score **1.56 ** goals and **FC Emmen** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Groningen ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Groningen** to score **1.98 ** goals and **FC Emmen** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3** goals in the game and the home team **Groningen ** to win by **0.96** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
21.28 |
0-1 |
6.37 |

1 |
9.09 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.85 |
4+ |
2.91 |

3 |
3.41 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.19 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
6.37 |

5 |
8.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |

6+ |
18.87 |
Un 2.5 |
2.75 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.91 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.52 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.74 |
3.34 |
7.85 |

2-3 goals |
1.30 |
12.79 |
6.65 |

4+ goals |
2.22 |
2.92 |
4.85 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.56 |
5.37 |
5.77 |

Un 1.5 |
1.74 |
3.34 |
7.85 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
5.40 |
5.10 |

Un 2.5 |
1.54 |
4.22 |
8.85 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
2.92 |
4.85 |

Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
7.63 |
6.91 |

Goal-Goal |
2.23 |
3.10 |
4.38 |

No Goal |
1.25 |
10.94 |
9.35 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
3.79 |
4.03 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.37 |
10.94 |
7.90 |

####
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###
Den Haag vs Heracles at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Den Haag** and **Heracles** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Den Haag |
4.63 |
2.55 |
17.6 |

Draw |
3.77 |
3.92 |
-1.0 |

Heracles |
1.73 |
2.83 |
-22.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.59 |
11.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.70 |
-16.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Den Haag, Over 2.5 (17.6 %, 11.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Den Haag** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Den Haag** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance** at home**.

Den Haag,** at home**, had no wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Waalwijk |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
For Sittard |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Heracles** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heracles** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance** as a guest**.

Heracles,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Zwolle |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Feb |
Twente |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Waalwijk |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Den Haag** is **-0.356** and for the **Heracles** is **0.148.**

The home dynamic for the **Den Haag** is **-0.859** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Heracles** is **-0.271.**

The offensive ability for the **Den Haag** is **-0.278** and for the **Heracles** is **0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Den Haag** is **-0.559** and for the **Heracles** is **-0.339.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Den Haag** and the red line for guest team, **Heracles. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Den Haag |
19% |
34% |
18% |
28% |

Heracles |
21% |
31% |
26% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Den Haag** to score **0.82 ** goals and **Heracles** to score **1.67 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the guest team **Heracles ** to win by **0.85** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Den Haag** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Heracles** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3.03** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
24.39 |
0-1 |
5.78 |

1 |
7.58 |
2-3 |
2.24 |

2 |
5.08 |
4+ |
2.61 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.21 |

4 |
4.78 |
Un 1.5 |
5.78 |

5 |
8.77 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |

6+ |
16.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.70 |

Gg |
1.57 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.61 |

NoG |
2.74 |
Un 3.5 |
1.62 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.37 |
4.22 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.84 |
4.21 |
2.44 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.51 |
3.42 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.86 |
2.81 |

Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
4.22 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.80 |
2.59 |

Un 2.5 |
3.27 |
2.52 |
3.36 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.51 |
3.42 |

Un 3.5 |
2.69 |
4.21 |
2.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.91 |
2.96 |
3.14 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
8.90 |
2.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
4.87 |
2.62 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
8.90 |
2.40 |

####
Go to Top

###
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **AZ Alkmaar** and **Twente** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

AZ Alkmaar |
1.43 |
2.30 |
-26.5 |

Draw |
4.67 |
3.75 |
5.3 |

Twente |
6.55 |
3.36 |
14.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.93 |
-13.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.08 |
6.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Twente, Under 2.5 (5.3 %, 14.5 %, 6.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**AZ Alkmaar** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AZ Alkmaar** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance** at home**.

AZ Alkmaar,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Mar |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
VVV Venlo |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Heerenveen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Jan |
Utrecht |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Twente** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Twente** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance** as a guest**.

Twente,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Feb |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Vitesse |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **0.333** and for the **Twente** is **0.015.**

The home dynamic for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **0.146** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Twente** is **0.247.**

The offensive ability for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **0.678** and for the **Twente** is **0.43.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **-0.648** and for the **Twente** is **-0.313.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **AZ Alkmaar** and the red line for guest team, **Twente. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

AZ Alkmaar |
23% |
31% |
25% |
21% |

Twente |
25% |
44% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **AZ Alkmaar** to score **2.3 ** goals and **Twente** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.04** goals in the game and the home team **AZ Alkmaar ** to win by **1.56** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **AZ Alkmaar** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Twente** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
4.20 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.72 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.68 |
Un 1.5 |
4.20 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.74 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.72 |