Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Levante vs Valencia at 12 March 2021
Real Madrid vs Elche at 13 March 2021
Osasuna vs Valladolid at 13 March 2021
Alaves vs Cadiz at 13 March 2021
Getafe vs Ath Madrid at 13 March 2021
Celta vs Ath Bilbao at 14 March 2021
Sevilla vs Betis at 14 March 2021
Eibar vs Villarreal at 14 March 2021
Granada vs Sociedad at 14 March 2021
Barcelona vs Huesca at 15 March 2021
Levante vs Valencia at 12 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Levante and Valencia for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 12 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Levante |
2.31 |
2.40 |
-1.6 |
|
Draw |
3.35 |
3.91 |
-4.3 |
|
Valencia |
3.26 |
3.07 |
1.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.90 |
0.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.11 |
-4.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Valencia, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Levante in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance at home.
Levante, at home, had 4 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Mar |
Sociedad |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Osasuna |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Granada |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Real Madrid |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Valladolid |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Valencia in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valencia in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance as a guest.
Valencia, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valencia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Mar |
Villarreal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Celta |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Elche |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The form score for the Levante is -0.17 and for the Valencia is 0.163.
The home dynamic for the Levante is 0.384 and the dynamic as a guest for the Valencia is -0.312.
The offensive ability for the Levante is 0.191 and for the Valencia is 0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Levante is -0.586 and for the Valencia is -0.288.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Valencia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Levante |
26% |
26% |
31% |
17% |
|
Valencia |
32% |
29% |
23% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 1.42 goals and Valencia to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.4 goals and Valencia to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
4.15 |
|
1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.58 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |
|
5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
|
6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
|
Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.58 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.87 |
2.94 |
3.21 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.96 |
6.23 |
3.04 |
|
4+ goals |
3.21 |
2.85 |
2.97 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
4.34 |
3.01 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.87 |
2.94 |
3.21 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.35 |
2.70 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.99 |
3.58 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.21 |
2.85 |
2.97 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
4.53 |
3.09 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.84 |
2.89 |
3.31 |
|
No Goal |
2.08 |
6.02 |
2.84 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.41 |
4.38 |
2.80 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.02 |
3.00 |
Go to Top
Real Madrid vs Elche at 13 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Real Madrid |
1.22 |
1.85 |
-27.9 |
|
Draw |
6.78 |
4.12 |
9.5 |
|
Elche |
14.55 |
4.65 |
14.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
2.01 |
-12.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
1.99 |
8.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Elche, Under 2.5 (9.5 %, 14.6 %, 8.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Real Madrid in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance at home.
Real Madrid, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Mar |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
01 Mar |
Sociedad |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Getafe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Huesca |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Levante |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Alaves |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Elche in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Sevilla |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Granada |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Feb |
Barcelona |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Feb |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Feb |
Celta |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Villarreal |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Valencia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Real Madrid is 0.615 and for the Elche is -0.148.
The home dynamic for the Real Madrid is 0.514 and the dynamic as a guest for the Elche is -0.449.
The offensive ability for the Real Madrid is 1 and for the Elche is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Real Madrid is 0.145 and for the Elche is -0.631.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Real Madrid and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Real Madrid |
20% |
29% |
26% |
25% |
|
Elche |
42% |
32% |
17% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 2.57 goals and Elche to score 0.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 2.16 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.57 goals and Elche to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.75 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
4.13 |
|
3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |
|
5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
Gg |
2.14 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.13 |
|
NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.17 |
3.26 |
4.31 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.66 |
5.35 |
4.78 |
|
4+ goals |
1.97 |
3.56 |
4.75 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.75 |
4.59 |
4.77 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.26 |
4.31 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
7.34 |
4.16 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.89 |
5.23 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.97 |
3.56 |
4.75 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.81 |
4.36 |
4.60 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.28 |
2.92 |
4.58 |
|
No Goal |
1.58 |
6.51 |
4.68 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
5.51 |
3.68 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.51 |
4.27 |
Go to Top
Osasuna vs Valladolid at 13 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Osasuna and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Osasuna |
2.24 |
2.09 |
3.2 |
|
Draw |
3.11 |
3.89 |
-6.4 |
|
Valladolid |
3.65 |
3.79 |
-1.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.48 |
1.96 |
10.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
2.04 |
-14.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Osasuna, Over 2.5 (3.2 %, 10.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Osasuna in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Osasuna in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance at home.
Osasuna, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Feb |
Alaves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Feb |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Levante |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Feb |
Betis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Granada |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Valladolid in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Getafe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Feb |
Celta |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Feb |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Eibar |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Jan |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Levante |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Elche |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The form score for the Osasuna is -0.015 and for the Valladolid is -0.259.
The home dynamic for the Osasuna is -0.178 and the dynamic as a guest for the Valladolid is -0.15.
The offensive ability for the Osasuna is -0.191 and for the Valladolid is 0.356.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Osasuna is -0.181 and for the Valladolid is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Osasuna and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Osasuna |
22% |
30% |
27% |
22% |
|
Valladolid |
32% |
38% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.23 goals and Valladolid to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Osasuna to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.48 goals and Valladolid to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Osasuna to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.00 |
|
1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.89 |
|
3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.52 |
3.05 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.91 |
4.39 |
4.03 |
|
4+ goals |
2.09 |
3.43 |
4.36 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.97 |
4.01 |
4.14 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.52 |
3.05 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
6.77 |
3.65 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.67 |
2.68 |
3.96 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.43 |
4.36 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.09 |
4.05 |
3.64 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
2.82 |
4.54 |
|
No Goal |
1.86 |
6.65 |
3.21 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
5.53 |
3.58 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.65 |
3.06 |
Go to Top
Alaves vs Cadiz at 13 Mar 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Alaves and Cadiz for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Alaves |
2.16 |
2.09 |
1.6 |
|
Draw |
3.13 |
3.83 |
-5.8 |
|
Cadiz |
3.91 |
3.83 |
0.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.68 |
1.96 |
13.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.46 |
2.04 |
-19.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Alaves, Cadiz, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 0.5 %, 13.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Alaves in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance at home.
Alaves, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Mar |
Betis |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Feb |
Osasuna |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Sociedad |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Cadiz in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance as a guest.
Cadiz, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Mar |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Feb |
Betis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Feb |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Feb |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Levante |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The form score for the Alaves is -0.57 and for the Cadiz is -0.43.
The home dynamic for the Alaves is -0.341 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cadiz is -0.166.
The offensive ability for the Alaves is -0.157 and for the Cadiz is 0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Alaves is -0.322 and for the Cadiz is -0.545.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alaves and the red line for guest team, Cadiz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Alaves |
21% |
31% |
25% |
23% |
|
Cadiz |
31% |
40% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.19 goals and Cadiz to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and the home team Alaves to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.49 goals and Cadiz to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Alaves to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.05 |
|
1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.86 |
|
3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |
|
5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |
|
NoG |
2.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |