2021 03 12 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Swindon vs Gillingham at 13 March 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Accrington at 13 March 2021
Lincoln vs Rochdale at 13 March 2021
Ipswich vs Plymouth at 13 March 2021
Charlton vs Shrewsbury at 13 March 2021
Crewe vs Burton at 13 March 2021
Doncaster vs Northampton at 13 March 2021
Bristol Rvs vs AFC Wimbledon at 13 March 2021
Blackpool vs Fleetwood Town at 13 March 2021
Hull vs Oxford at 13 March 2021


Swindon vs Gillingham at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Gillingham for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

2.93

2.69

3.0

Draw

3.41

3.66

-2.0

Gillingham

2.36

2.82

-6.9

Over 2.5

1.97

2.06

-2.2

Under 2.5

1.85

1.95

-2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon (3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Oxford

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Accrington

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Sunderland

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Lincoln

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Crewe

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Portsmouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N


Gillingham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance as a guest.
Gillingham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Fleetwood Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Ipswich

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Milton Keynes Dons

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Feb

Portsmouth

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

AFC Wimbledon

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Bristol Rvs

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Peterboro

H

1

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Charlton

A

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Swindon is -0.259 and for the Gillingham is 0.148.
The home dynamic for the Swindon is -0.222 and the dynamic as a guest for the Gillingham is -0.142.
The offensive ability for the Swindon is 0.591 and for the Gillingham is 0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swindon is -1 and for the Gillingham is -0.682.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Gillingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

28%

33%

23%

16%

Gillingham

26%

37%

26%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.14 goals and Gillingham to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.27 goals and Gillingham to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.85

1

5.29

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

4.15

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.02

3.66

2.52

2-3 goals

2.65

4.02

2.67

4+ goals

2.46

3.13

3.65

Ov 1.5

2.59

3.68

2.92

Un 1.5

3.02

3.66

2.52

Ov 2.5

2.15

6.31

2.66

Un 2.5

3.52

2.64

2.97

Ov 3.5

2.46

3.13

3.65

Un 3.5

2.77

3.89

2.62

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.67

3.56

No Goal

2.48

6.52

2.26

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

5.36

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.67

6.52

2.25


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Milton Keynes Dons vs Accrington at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Milton Keynes Dons and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Milton Keynes Dons

2.07

2.51

-8.5

Draw

3.60

3.65

-0.4

Accrington

3.35

3.05

2.9

Over 2.5

1.81

2.09

-7.4

Under 2.5

2.02

1.92

2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Accrington, Under 2.5 (2.9 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance at home.
Milton Keynes Dons, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Blackpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Mar

Wigan

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Mar

Gillingham

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Feb

Oxford

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Shrewsbury

A

2

4

L

O

G

20 Feb

Northampton

H

4

3

W

O

G

13 Feb

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Rochdale

A

4

1

W

O

G


Accrington in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Bristol Rvs

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Mar

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Mar

Ipswich

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Feb

Crewe

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Shrewsbury

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Feb

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Lincoln

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.57 and for the Accrington is -0.333.
The home dynamic for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.059 and the dynamic as a guest for the Accrington is 0.061.
The offensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.104 and for the Accrington is 0.704.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is -1 and for the Accrington is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milton Keynes Dons and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Milton Keynes Dons

26%

34%

24%

16%

Accrington

29%

37%

24%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.56 goals and Accrington to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.31 goals and Accrington to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.75

1

5.18

2-3

2.00

2

3.92

4+

4.24

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.75

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

3.61

2.84

2-3 goals

2.47

3.96

2.92

4+ goals

2.38

3.19

3.75

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.68

3.14

Un 1.5

2.70

3.61

2.84

Ov 2.5

2.06

6.49

2.77

Un 2.5

3.13

2.61

3.37

Ov 3.5

2.38

3.19

3.75

Un 3.5

2.54

3.83

2.89

Goal-Goal

2.85

2.66

3.66

No Goal

2.20

6.36

2.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

5.47

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

6.36

2.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Lincoln vs Rochdale at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lincoln and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lincoln

1.45

2.11

-21.6

Draw

4.43

3.75

4.1

Rochdale

7.02

3.88

11.5

Over 2.5

1.85

2.16

-7.8

Under 2.5

1.97

1.87

2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rochdale, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 11.5 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lincoln in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance at home.
Lincoln, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Ipswich

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Crewe

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Mar

Fleetwood Town

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Feb

Plymouth

A

3

4

L

O

G

23 Feb

Swindon

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Wigan

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

09 Feb

Hull

A

0

0

D

U

N


Rochdale in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale didn’t score to any of them. and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Shrewsbury

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Sunderland

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Mar

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Burton

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Feb

Northampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Plymouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Feb

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Lincoln is -0.015 and for the Rochdale is -0.719.
The home dynamic for the Lincoln is 0.081 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rochdale is -0.053.
The offensive ability for the Lincoln is 1 and for the Rochdale is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lincoln is -0.559 and for the Rochdale is -0.339.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lincoln and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lincoln

20%

36%

26%

18%

Rochdale

36%

35%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.98 goals and Rochdale to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 1.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.41 goals and Rochdale to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.61

1

4.93

2-3

2.00

2

3.86

4+

4.50

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.61

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.11

3.74

3.85

2-3 goals

2.04

3.91

3.94

4+ goals

2.29

3.36

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.73

3.89

Un 1.5

2.11

3.74

3.85

Ov 2.5

1.85

7.03

3.16

Un 2.5

2.40

2.65

4.83

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.36

3.76

Un 3.5

2.06

3.85

3.91

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.62

3.98

No Goal

1.71

6.64

3.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.77

2.98

NG+Un 2.5

1.83

6.64

3.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Ipswich vs Plymouth at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ipswich and Plymouth for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ipswich

1.96

2.08

-2.9

Draw

3.51

3.85

-2.5

Plymouth

3.79

3.85

-0.4

Over 2.5

1.97

2.06

-2.2

Under 2.5

1.85

1.95

-2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ipswich in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance at home.
Ipswich, at home, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Lincoln

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Mar

Gillingham

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Mar

Accrington

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Feb

Doncaster

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Oxford

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Feb

Northampton

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Feb

Peterboro

A

1

2

L

O

G


Plymouth in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance as a guest.
Plymouth, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Wigan

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Mar

Northampton

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Lincoln

H

4

3

W

O

G

23 Feb

Peterboro

H

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Rochdale

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Feb

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Accrington

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Ipswich is 0.296 and for the Plymouth is -0.541.
The home dynamic for the Ipswich is 0.211 and the dynamic as a guest for the Plymouth is -0.385.
The offensive ability for the Ipswich is 0.678 and for the Plymouth is -0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ipswich is -0.322 and for the Plymouth is -0.682.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ipswich and the red line for guest team, Plymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ipswich

21%

32%

28%

19%

Plymouth

35%

35%

18%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.53 goals and Plymouth to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Ipswich to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.45 goals and Plymouth to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Ipswich to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.80

1

5.29

2-3

2.01

2

3.98

4+

4.18

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.80

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-