# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Walsall vs Barrow at 12 March 2021**** Southend vs Stevenage at 13 March 2021**** Port Vale vs Bolton at 13 March 2021**** Oldham vs Cambridge at 13 March 2021**** Morecambe vs Newport County at 13 March 2021**** Grimsby vs Colchester at 13 March 2021**** Forest Green vs Harrogate at 13 March 2021**** Exeter vs Cheltenham at 13 March 2021**** Crawley Town vs Mansfield at 13 March 2021**** Carlisle vs Bradford at 13 March 2021**** Leyton Orient vs Scunthorpe at 13 March 2021**

###
Walsall vs Barrow at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Walsall** and **Barrow** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **12 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Walsall |
2.64 |
2.43 |
3.3 |

Draw |
3.14 |
3.62 |
-4.2 |

Barrow |
2.76 |
3.19 |
-4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.37 |
2.22 |
2.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.82 |
-7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Walsall, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** at home**.

Walsall,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Feb |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Port Vale |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** as a guest**.

Barrow,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 11 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Mar |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Salford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Walsall** is **-0.667** and for the **Barrow** is **-0.281.**

The home dynamic for the **Walsall** is **0.232** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Barrow** is **-0.409.**

The offensive ability for the **Walsall** is **-0.278** and for the **Barrow** is **0.015.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Walsall** is **-0.559** and for the **Barrow** is **-0.167.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Walsall** and the red line for guest team, **Barrow. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Walsall |
27% |
33% |
26% |
14% |

Barrow |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.41 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.76 |
3.37 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.23 |
4.11 |
3.25 |

4+ goals |
2.55 |
3.16 |
3.42 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.32 |
3.77 |
3.30 |

Un 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.37 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.72 |
2.83 |

Un 2.5 |
2.94 |
2.65 |
3.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.55 |
3.16 |
3.42 |

Un 3.5 |
2.40 |
3.80 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
2.80 |
2.63 |
3.81 |

No Goal |
2.16 |
5.83 |
2.74 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
5.58 |
2.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
5.83 |
2.76 |

####
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###
Southend vs Stevenage at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southend** and **Stevenage** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southend |
3.02 |
3.34 |
-3.2 |

Draw |
3.07 |
3.85 |
-6.6 |

Stevenage |
2.46 |
2.27 |
3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.46 |
2.06 |
7.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.95 |
-13.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stevenage, Over 2.5 (3.4 %, 7.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** at home**.

Southend,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Oldham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Salford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Feb |
Forest Green |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** as a guest**.

Stevenage,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Forest Green |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Feb |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Southend** is **-0.356** and for the **Stevenage** is **0.356.**

The home dynamic for the **Southend** is **-0.243** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Stevenage** is **-0.304.**

The offensive ability for the **Southend** is **-1** and for the **Stevenage** is **-0.015.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Southend** is **-0.181** and for the **Stevenage** is **1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southend** and the red line for guest team, **Stevenage. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southend |
36% |
28% |
22% |
13% |

Stevenage |
19% |
39% |
26% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southend** to score **0.98 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.11** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southend** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.12 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.12 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.84 |
3.80 |
1.89 |

2-3 goals |
3.11 |
4.38 |
2.22 |

4+ goals |
2.83 |
3.12 |
3.08 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.01 |
3.86 |
2.45 |

Un 1.5 |
4.84 |
3.80 |
1.89 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
6.23 |
2.34 |

Un 2.5 |
5.19 |
2.82 |
2.21 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.83 |
3.12 |
3.08 |

Un 3.5 |
3.55 |
4.16 |
2.09 |

Goal-Goal |
2.97 |
2.72 |
3.38 |

No Goal |
3.86 |
6.90 |
1.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.19 |
2.65 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
4.06 |
6.90 |
1.73 |

####
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###
Port Vale vs Bolton at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Port Vale** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Port Vale |
3.39 |
2.60 |
9.0 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.61 |
-2.2 |

Bolton |
2.14 |
2.96 |
-12.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.19 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.84 |
-4.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Port Vale (9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Port Vale** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Port Vale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance** at home**.

Port Vale,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
Oldham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Cheltenham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Mar |
Salford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Southend |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Mar |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Southend |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Port Vale** is **-0.519** and for the **Bolton** is **0.815.**

The home dynamic for the **Port Vale** is **-0.222** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bolton** is **0.069.**

The offensive ability for the **Port Vale** is **-0.591** and for the **Bolton** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Port Vale** is **-0.181** and for the **Bolton** is **0.433.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Port Vale** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Port Vale |
27% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

Bolton |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Port Vale** to score **0.97 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the guest team **Bolton ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Port Vale** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.47 |
2.94 |

2-3 goals |
2.51 |
3.88 |
2.91 |

4+ goals |
2.68 |
3.28 |
3.10 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.67 |
2.97 |

Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.47 |
2.94 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.78 |
2.52 |

Un 2.5 |
3.07 |
2.60 |
3.46 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.68 |
3.28 |
3.10 |

Un 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.72 |
2.92 |

Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.61 |
3.43 |

No Goal |
2.24 |
5.94 |
2.59 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.64 |
2.57 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.94 |
2.66 |

####
Go to Top

###
Oldham vs Cambridge at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oldham** and **Cambridge** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **13 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oldham |
3.27 |
2.69 |
6.6 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.57 |
-1.9 |

Cambridge |
2.21 |
2.87 |
-10.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.24 |
-7.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.81 |
2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Oldham, Under 2.5 (6.6 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** at home**.

Oldham,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Mar |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Feb |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Forest Green |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Cambridge** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cambridge** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance** as a guest**.

Cambridge,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Mar |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Mar |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Feb |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Salford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Oldham** is **-0.163** and for the **Cambridge** is **-0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Oldham** is **-0.524** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cambridge** is **-0.142.**

The offensive ability for the **Oldham** is **-0.652** and for the **Cambridge** is **0.356.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Oldham** is **-0.093** and for the **Cambridge** is **0.116.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oldham** and the red line for guest team, **Cambridge. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oldham |
28% |
37% |
21% |
14% |

Cambridge |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oldham** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Cambridge** to score **1.45 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the guest team **Cambridge ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oldham** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Cambridge** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |