2021 03 12 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Walsall vs Barrow at 12 March 2021
Southend vs Stevenage at 13 March 2021
Port Vale vs Bolton at 13 March 2021
Oldham vs Cambridge at 13 March 2021
Morecambe vs Newport County at 13 March 2021
Grimsby vs Colchester at 13 March 2021
Forest Green vs Harrogate at 13 March 2021
Exeter vs Cheltenham at 13 March 2021
Crawley Town vs Mansfield at 13 March 2021
Carlisle vs Bradford at 13 March 2021
Leyton Orient vs Scunthorpe at 13 March 2021


Walsall vs Barrow at 12 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Walsall and Barrow for League Two (England), which will take place on 12 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Walsall

2.64

2.43

3.3

Draw

3.14

3.62

-4.2

Barrow

2.76

3.19

-4.9

Over 2.5

2.37

2.22

2.9

Under 2.5

1.59

1.82

-7.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Walsall, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Walsall in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance at home.
Walsall, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Cambridge

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Mar

Exeter

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Feb

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Feb

Newport County

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Stevenage

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Cheltenham

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Port Vale

A

3

1

W

O

G


Barrow in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance as a guest.
Barrow, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 11 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Mar

Mansfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Harrogate

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Oldham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Morecambe

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Salford

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Cambridge

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Bradford

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Walsall is -0.667 and for the Barrow is -0.281.
The home dynamic for the Walsall is 0.232 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barrow is -0.409.
The offensive ability for the Walsall is -0.278 and for the Barrow is 0.015.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Walsall is -0.559 and for the Barrow is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Walsall and the red line for guest team, Barrow.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Walsall

27%

33%

26%

14%

Barrow

32%

37%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.1 goals and Barrow to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.27 goals and Barrow to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.41

1

4.85

2-3

2.01

2

3.86

4+

4.72

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.41

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

3.37

2.93

2-3 goals

2.23

4.11

3.25

4+ goals

2.55

3.16

3.42

Ov 1.5

2.32

3.77

3.30

Un 1.5

2.76

3.37

2.93

Ov 2.5

2.01

6.72

2.83

Un 2.5

2.94

2.65

3.54

Ov 3.5

2.55

3.16

3.42

Un 3.5

2.40

3.80

3.12

Goal-Goal

2.80

2.63

3.81

No Goal

2.16

5.83

2.74

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

5.58

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

5.83

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Southend vs Stevenage at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Southend and Stevenage for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Southend

3.02

3.34

-3.2

Draw

3.07

3.85

-6.6

Stevenage

2.46

2.27

3.4

Over 2.5

2.46

2.06

7.9

Under 2.5

1.55

1.95

-13.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage, Over 2.5 (3.4 %, 7.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Southend in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance at home.
Southend, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Tranmere

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Mar

Oldham

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Cheltenham

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Salford

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Feb

Forest Green

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Cambridge

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Feb

Newport County

A

1

0

W

U

N


Stevenage in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance as a guest.
Stevenage, as a guest, had 3 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Leyton Orient

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Harrogate

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Forest Green

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Feb

Newport County

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Feb

Port Vale

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Crawley Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Southend is -0.356 and for the Stevenage is 0.356.
The home dynamic for the Southend is -0.243 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stevenage is -0.304.
The offensive ability for the Southend is -1 and for the Stevenage is -0.015.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Southend is -0.181 and for the Stevenage is 1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southend and the red line for guest team, Stevenage.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Southend

36%

28%

22%

13%

Stevenage

19%

39%

26%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southend to score 0.98 goals and Stevenage to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southend to score 1.13 goals and Stevenage to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.76

1

5.10

2-3

2.04

2

4.03

4+

4.12

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.76

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.84

3.80

1.89

2-3 goals

3.11

4.38

2.22

4+ goals

2.83

3.12

3.08

Ov 1.5

3.01

3.86

2.45

Un 1.5

4.84

3.80

1.89

Ov 2.5

2.43

6.23

2.34

Un 2.5

5.19

2.82

2.21

Ov 3.5

2.83

3.12

3.08

Un 3.5

3.55

4.16

2.09

Goal-Goal

2.97

2.72

3.38

No Goal

3.86

6.90

1.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

5.19

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

4.06

6.90

1.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Port Vale vs Bolton at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Port Vale and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Port Vale

3.39

2.60

9.0

Draw

3.34

3.61

-2.2

Bolton

2.14

2.96

-12.9

Over 2.5

2.15

2.19

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.69

1.84

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Port Vale (9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Port Vale in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance at home.
Port Vale, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Oldham

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Cheltenham

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Mar

Salford

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Cambridge

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Leyton Orient

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Tranmere

A

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Southend

H

5

1

W

O

G


Bolton in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Cambridge

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Bradford

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Mar

Oldham

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Feb

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Scunthorpe

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Southend

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Mansfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Stevenage

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Port Vale is -0.519 and for the Bolton is 0.815.
The home dynamic for the Port Vale is -0.222 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bolton is 0.069.
The offensive ability for the Port Vale is -0.591 and for the Bolton is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Port Vale is -0.181 and for the Bolton is 0.433.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Port Vale and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Port Vale

27%

35%

23%

14%

Bolton

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 0.97 goals and Bolton to score 1.34 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the guest team Bolton to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.24 goals and Bolton to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.47

1

4.88

2-3

2.04

2

3.92

4+

4.55

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.47

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.69

3.47

2.94

2-3 goals

2.51

3.88

2.91

4+ goals

2.68

3.28

3.10

Ov 1.5

2.56

3.67

2.97

Un 1.5

2.69

3.47

2.94

Ov 2.5

2.19

6.78

2.52

Un 2.5

3.07

2.60

3.46

Ov 3.5

2.68

3.28

3.10

Un 3.5

2.57

3.72

2.92

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.61

3.43

No Goal

2.24

5.94

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.30

5.64

2.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

5.94

2.66


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Oldham vs Cambridge at 13 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oldham and Cambridge for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oldham

3.27

2.69

6.6

Draw

3.34

3.57

-1.9

Cambridge

2.21

2.87

-10.4

Over 2.5

1.91

2.24

-7.7

Under 2.5

1.91

1.81

2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oldham, Under 2.5 (6.6 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oldham in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance at home.
Oldham, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Port Vale

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Mar

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Mar

Bolton

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Feb

Carlisle

A

3

1

W

O

G

23 Feb

Barrow

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Tranmere

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Feb

Forest Green

A

3

4

L

O

G

30 Jan

Salford

H

2

1

W

O

G


Cambridge in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance as a guest.
Cambridge, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Mar

Bolton

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Mar

Walsall

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Mar

Scunthorpe

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Feb

Port Vale

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Mansfield

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Feb

Salford

A

1

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Oldham is -0.163 and for the Cambridge is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Oldham is -0.524 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cambridge is -0.142.
The offensive ability for the Oldham is -0.652 and for the Cambridge is 0.356.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oldham is -0.093 and for the Cambridge is 0.116.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oldham and the red line for guest team, Cambridge.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oldham

28%

37%

21%

14%

Cambridge

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.09 goals and Cambridge to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the guest team Cambridge to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.21 goals and Cambridge to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.37

1

4.72

2-3

2.04

2

3.91

4+

4.69

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.37

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at